Exxon Mobil Corporation is a global energy and petrochemical company primarily engaged in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas, as well as the manufacturing and sale of petroleum and petrochemical products. The company is also actively pursuing lower-emission business opportunities such as carbon capture, hydrogen, and advanced materials.
Darren W. Woods (Chairman and Chief Executive Officer), Kathryn A. Mikells (Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer), Neil A. Hansen (Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Secretary)
Key metrics
Q1 2026 results included total earnings of roughly mid‑single digit billions of dollars and comparable cash flow from operations, supported by resilient downstream and chemical performance despite a mixed price environment. Upstream production was roughly in line with the prior year quarter, with growth in Guyana and the Permian offsetting declines
Forward guidance
Management reiterated its production and capital expenditure plans for 2026, indicating that upstream volumes are expected to be roughly flat to slightly higher versus 2025, driven by continued growth in Guyana and the Permian while offsetting natural declines elsewhere. They maintained full‑year capex guidance in the previously communicated range,
Notable Q&A
In one notable exchange, an analyst asked about capital allocation trade‑offs between traditional upstream projects and low‑carbon solutions, and management emphasized that investment decisions are driven by returns and advantaged resource positions, noting that lower‑emissions projects must compete
Surprise items
Management reaffirmed its capital spending range and share repurchase framework despite commodity price volatility, which may have been more assertive than some investors expected. They also underscored additional structural cost efficiencies and operational improvements that could further enhance r
Q4 2025 (Jan 30, 2026) · Confident
Fundamentals
Signal
52-week high / low
$176.41 / $105.53
Forward P/E
13.6×
Trailing 24.4×
Dividend
$4.12 / share
Yield 2.85%
Analysts covering
21
Avg target $167.38
Beta
0.16
vs. S&P 500
Short interest
1.0%
Float shorted
Buy
46%
Hold
50%
Sell
4%
Wall Street consensus — sourced weekly via public disclosures
Analyst coverage data sourced from public filings. Xavier analyst thesis summary available after weekly Perplexity scan completes.
Financial summary — Gemini analysis
Signal
Revenue
$323,905 million
-4.52% YoY
Operating margin
12.7%
Net income
$28,844 million
Free cash flow
$23,612 million
Dividend / share
$4.00
Total debt
$43,537 million
Cash: $10,681 million
CapEx guidance
$27 billion to $29 billion in 2026
Earnings quality:HIGH
Recurring revenue:70%
Cash conversion:1.8x
Non-recurring items: Impairments, Gain on asset sales, Tax-related items, Restructuring charges
XOM trades at 23.4x TTM P/E — modestly rich for an integrated oil major with negative earnings growth (-43.4%) and only 2.6% revenue growth — in an environment where the EIA now forecasts Brent averaging $74/b in Q3 and declining to $65/b in 2027 as Middle East supply normalizes. The geopolitical risk premium from US-Iran tensions provides a short-term oil price floor, but the structural trajectory of crude prices is tilted bearish as global supply returns to market. The forward P/E of ~13x offers genuine long-term value, but the 5-day horizon offers no clear catalyst to close the gap to the $169 consensus target from current $138.88.
Strongest bull case
US-Iran tensions remain unresolved with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz still significantly disrupted, keeping a geopolitical risk premium in crude oil that directly benefits XOM's upstream margins in the near term — and UBS and Bernstein both reiterated Buy ratings on July 8.
Strongest bear case
The EIA's July 7 STEO explicitly forecasts oil inventory accumulation returning to oversupply after Q3 2026 and Brent falling to $65/b in 2027; simultaneously, multiple sell-side analysts (JPMorgan, Mizuho, TD Cowen) have been cutting price targets in early July, and XOM's TTM earnings are already down 43.4% year-over-year — meaning the stock is not cheap at 23.4x on declining earnings.
What the market may be missing
The market is treating the US-Iran ceasefire breakdown as a sustained oil price catalyst, but the EIA data shows global oil demand is forecast to DECREASE by 1.2 million b/d in 2026, with Asia — the most Middle East-dependent demand center — having already structurally reduced its reliance on those barrels. The supply shock may be shorter and shallower than the geopolitical headlines imply, meaning XOM's near-term oil price tailwind is weaker than sentiment suggests.
Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer · Exxon Mobil Corporation
CEO since 2017
Total compensation
$32,998,628 ▼ 25.1% YoY
Prior year: $44,052,537
Pay vs performance
Aligned
Board assessment
Say-on-pay approval
92%
Shareholder vote
Board independence
12/13 (92%)
Diversity: 31% (4 women)
Base salary$2,141,000
Bonus / incentive$4,093,000
Stock awards$25,886,250
CEO letter to shareholders
Signal
No shareholder letter on file for XOM
Some companies file their annual report without a separate CEO letter.
When available, Xavier extracts strategic themes, tone analysis, and
forward-looking statements to help you read between the lines.
Executive compensation
Signal
Name
Title
Total compensation
Darren W. Woods
Chairman and CEO
$32,998,628
Kathryn A. Mikells
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
$17,139,396
Neil A. Chapman
Senior Vice President
$17,747,849
Jack P. Williams, Jr.
Senior Vice President
$17,685,329
Jon M. Gibbs
Senior President, ExxonMobil Global Operations
$17,238,272
Source: DEF 14A proxy statement · 2026-04-08
Governance
Pro
Dual-class shares:No
Poison pill:No
Clawback policy:Yes
Stock ownership req.:Yes
Shareholder proposals
Independent Chair
AGAINST
Pending
Modify Voluntary Retail Voting Program to provide multiple options not aligned w
Risk increasing — Changes in oil, gas, and petrochemical prices significantly affecting operations
Mgmt narrative
Management tone: Cautiously optimistic
Analyst drift
Consensus Buy — targets stable
Insider sentiment
Pattern detection — 90 days needed
Signal history
Signal
Date
Direction
Conf.
Agree.
Thesis
Price
Type
Jul 12, 2026
NEUTRAL
5.6/10
100%
XOM trades at 23.4x TTM P/E — modestly rich for an integrated oil major with negative earnings growt...
$138.88
Sched.
Jul 11, 2026
NEUTRAL
6.0/10
100%
XOM looks reasonably valued on forward earnings, but the near-term setup is mixed: trailing earnings...
$138.88
Sched.
Jun 07, 2026
NEUTRAL
5.8/10
100%
XOM is caught between a genuinely elevated oil price environment driven by Strait of Hormuz disrupti...
$149.92
Sched.
May 31, 2026
NEUTRAL
5.8/10
100%
XOM sits in a highly uncertain macro environment dominated by a single binary catalyst: the US-Iran ...
$145.26
Sched.
May 24, 2026
NEUTRAL
6.4/10
75%
XOM is the primary Atlantic Basin beneficiary of the Strait of Hormuz closure, with Middle Eastern s...
$154.92
Sched.
May 17, 2026
NEUTRAL
5.8/10
100%
XOM has surged ~4% today to $157.92 on the back of elevated oil prices (~$106/b Brent) driven by the...
$157.92
Sched.
May 10, 2026
NEUTRAL
6.2/10
100%
XOM beat Q1 2026 EPS estimates by ~14% and delivered strong operational output (4.6M boe/d), but net...
$144.57
Sched.
May 03, 2026
NEUTRAL
6.1/10
100%
XOM beat Q1 2026 EPS estimates on an ex-items basis ($1.16 vs ~$1.00-$1.02 consensus) and is benefit...
$152.75
Sched.
May 01, 2026
NEUTRAL
6.7/10
50%
XOM reported Q1 2026 earnings today (May 1) with results described as a beat on adjusted EPS despite...
$152.75
Sched.
Apr 12, 2026
NEUTRAL
6.0/10
75%
XOM is caught between two powerful forces over the next 5 trading days: the Q1 2026 earnings report ...
$152.51
Sched.
Showing last 10 signals
XOMExxon Mobil Corporation
Signal
FY2026 annual report (10-K filed 2026-02-18)
INCOME STATEMENT
?Revenue
$323,905 million-4.52% YoY
Total sales from selling oil, gas, and petrochemicals. Down 4.52% from last year. Management has guided capital spending of $27 billion to $29 billion in 2026.
?Operating income
$41,268 million
What remains after subtracting all operating costs — salaries, materials, rent, R&D — from revenue. This is the profit from actually running the business, before interest and taxes. Operating margin is 12.7%, meaning 13 cents of every dollar of revenue becomes operating profit.
?Net income
$28,844 million
The bottom line — what the company actually earned after all expenses, interest, and taxes. This is the number that gets divided by shares outstanding to calculate earnings per share (EPS), which directly affects the stock price. Net margin is 4.9%. Note: results include non-recurring items (impairments, gain on asset sales) that may not repeat.
?Free cash flow
$23,612 million
Operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. This is the money available for dividends, share buybacks, debt repayment, or acquisitions. Free cash flow is what many professional investors consider the truest measure of financial health.
?EPS (diluted)
$1.00
Earnings per share — net income divided by total shares outstanding (including stock options and convertible bonds that could become shares). This is the single number most investors watch because it directly connects company profits to your ownership stake.
?Dividend per share
$4.00
Cash paid to shareholders each year for every share they own. Energy companies typically pay steady dividends funded by commodity cash flows.
BALANCE SHEET
?Total assets
$464.4B
Everything the company owns — cash, factories, equipment, patents, inventory, investments. Includes oil reserves, refineries, pipelines, and chemical plants.
?Cash & equivalents
$10,681 million
Money available right now — bank accounts, money market funds, short-term government bonds. This is the company's financial cushion. More cash means more flexibility to invest, acquire, or survive a downturn without borrowing.
?Total debt
$43,537 million
All money the company owes — bonds, bank loans, credit facilities. Compare this to cash to understand the net debt position. The company holds $10,681 million in cash against this debt.
?Shares outstanding
4,166,763,453
Total number of shares that exist — owned by all investors, insiders, and institutions combined. When the company reports EPS, this is the denominator. Share buybacks reduce this number, which increases EPS even without earnings growth.
CASH FLOW
?Operating cash flow
$8.7B
Actual cash generated from running the business — not accounting profits, real money coming in the door. This is more trustworthy than net income because it's harder to manipulate. A company can report profits but still run out of cash.
?Capital expenditure
$6.5B
Money spent on long-term assets — drilling rigs, refineries, pipelines, and exploration. This is the cost of maintaining and growing the business. Management has guided $27 billion to $29 billion in 2026 for capital spending.
?Free cash flow
$2.2B
Operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. This is the money available for dividends, share buybacks, debt repayment, or acquisitions. Free cash flow is what many professional investors consider the truest measure of a company's financial health.
?Interest expense
$295M
The cost of borrowing money — interest payments on bonds, loans, and credit facilities. Higher interest expense means more of the company's earnings go to lenders instead of shareholders.
?Interest coverage
46.6x
EBITDA divided by interest expense — how many times over the company can pay its interest bill from earnings. At 46.6x, coverage is very comfortable. Lenders typically want to see at least 3-4x.
?Depreciation & amortization
$6.8B
A non-cash expense that spreads the cost of oil wells, refineries, and pipeline infrastructure over their useful life. This reduces reported income but no cash actually leaves the company — that's why it gets added back to calculate EBITDA and operating cash flow.
EARNINGS QUALITY
?Accrual quality
HIGH
Measures how well reported earnings match actual cash generation. HIGH means earnings are backed by real cash. LOW means the company may be using accounting techniques to inflate reported numbers. Professional investors check this before trusting EPS.
?Recurring revenue
70%
70% of revenue comes from repeat sources — ongoing contracts, subscriptions, or regular customer purchasing patterns rather than one-time sales. Higher recurring revenue means more predictable future earnings.
?Cash conversion
1.8x
Operating cash flow divided by net income. Above 1.0x means the company generates more cash than it reports in profits — a sign of high-quality earnings. At 1.8x, the company is generating significantly more cash than reported profits — very healthy.
?Non-recurring items
4 identified
One-time items that affect the bottom line but won't repeat: impairments, gain on asset sales, tax-related items, restructuring charges. When evaluating the company's true earning power, investors strip these out to see what the business earns on a normal basis.
?Management tone
Cautious Optimistic
How management sounds in their SEC filings — are they confident, cautious, or defensive? This is analyzed from the actual language used in the 10-K annual report. A shift in tone from prior years can signal changing conditions before the numbers reflect it.
?Top risk factor
Increasing
Changes in oil, gas, and petrochemical prices significantly affecting operations and earnings. Risk trend: increasing. This is the single biggest threat to the company's future earnings as identified in their SEC filing.
Click any row to expand the plain-English explanation. Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings.
Capital intelligence
Signal
Weighted Average Cost of Capital · Return on Invested Capital · Economic Value Added
ROIC
7.60%
WACC
4.82%
🟢 VALUE CREATOR — EVA Spread: 2.78%
?WACC
4.82%
Weighted Average Cost of Capital — the minimum return Exxon Mobil Corporation must earn on its investments to satisfy both debt holders and shareholders. Computed from a 93.25% equity / 6.75% debt capital structure. If the company earns less than 4.82% on its invested capital, it is destroying shareholder value.
?Cost of equity
5.14%
The return shareholders demand for holding XOM stock instead of a risk-free Treasury bond. Computed using the Capital Asset Pricing Model: Risk-Free Rate (4.25%) + Beta (0.16) × Equity Risk Premium (5.50%). A beta of 0.16 means XOM is less volatile than the overall market.
?Cost of debt (after-tax)
0.41%
What Exxon Mobil Corporation effectively pays on its borrowed money after the tax deduction on interest. Interest is tax-deductible, so the true cost is lower than the stated rate. Effective tax rate used: 39.96%.
?Capital structure
E: 93.25% / D: 6.75%
How Exxon Mobil Corporation finances its operations — the split between equity (stock market value: $601.4B) and debt (total borrowings: $43.5B). More debt means more leverage — higher potential returns but higher risk.
?ROIC
7.60%
Return on Invested Capital — how efficiently Exxon Mobil Corporation turns its total invested capital into after-tax operating profit. NOPAT ($22.0B) ÷ Invested Capital ($289.5B). This exceeds WACC, meaning the company creates value for shareholders.
?EVA
$8.0B
Economic Value Added — the dollar amount of value Exxon Mobil Corporation created (or destroyed) above its cost of capital. NOPAT ($22.0B) minus the capital charge (Invested Capital × WACC = $14.0B). Positive EVA means every dollar of capital is earning more than it costs.
?NOPAT
$22.0B
Net Operating Profit After Tax — operating income adjusted for taxes, ignoring how the company is financed. Operating Income ($36.6B) × (1 - Tax Rate 39.96%). This isolates the company's core business profitability from its financing decisions.
Xavier consensus signals are intelligence outputs, not investment advice. All signals are generated by a multi-model AI system and reflect public information at time of generation. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future performance. Wall Street analyst consensus sourced from public disclosures, summarized weekly. Financial data sourced from SEC EDGAR and yfinance. Insider transactions sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 4 filings. Updated Jul 12, 2026.