Dear Fellow Shareholders,
While current macroeconomic conditions remain highly uncertain with heightened
concerns surrounding economic growth, inflation, and the health of the banking
system, I am pleased to report that Welltower’s prospects have only improved as
we’ve entered 2023. The recession-resilient nature of our business model has been
on full display in recent quarters, with stellar top-line growth being reported from
our seniors housing business just as the economy has shown signs of cooling. To be
clear, we may not be completely immune from exogenous shocks which may surface
and we will not take anything for granted in the current environment. However, we
believe that the drivers of our business are only getting better, setting the stage for
an extended period of outsized growth.
I can confidently say that the future for Welltower has never appeared brighter than
it does today.
UNPRECEDENTED INTERNAL & EXTERNAL GROWTH DRIVERS
Within the real estate space, rarely do companies have the simultaneous opportunity
to drive growth through both operations (internal growth) and capital deployment
(external growth). This is because, usually, when fundamentals are robust, capital
quickly flows to the sector, driving asset prices higher. However, we currently find
ourselves in a period in which organic growth is clearly accelerating and acquisition
opportunities and pricing are growing more attractive for us.
I’ve previously spoken about the rare and powerful combination we are currently
witnessing with a cyclical recovery in seniors housing fundamentals superimposed on
demographic-driven secular tailwinds. I’ll now add another dimension to this equation:
our efforts to optimize the seniors housing business through an operating platform
unlike anything seen in the industry (i.e. structural change or disruption). I’ll touch upon
each of these important drivers below but, suffice it to say, we believe that the result of
this “trifecta” will be what every company should strive for: long-term compounding of
per share growth.
Additionally, while these drivers alone should support sustained growth, we remain well-
positioned to create meaningful value through capital deployment. While the events of
the past year have left many participants paralyzed, we remain active, yet disciplined
allocators of the capital entrusted to us by our shareholders.
As most of you are aware, we are at the precipice of a dramatic shift in the demographic
profile of our country, marked by a sharp acceleration of the 80+ population, a trend that
will persist well into the next decade. Not only has demand within our seniors housing
operating portfolio strengthened on the back of this trend, but the growth of this age
cohort has also coincided with a 10-year low in new construction. As a result, in 2022,
we reported another year of both healthy occupancy gains and pricing power aided
by the largely inelastic nature of our product type. And while we’re undoubtedly
encouraged by the prospects of another year of near double-digit revenue growth in
2023, we’re perhaps even more excited about recent expense trends, with our operators
reporting a meaningful improvement across key line items. And if the Fed is successful in
reining in inflation and John Burkart’s team continues to rack up wins with respect to its
asset management efforts, the pace of improvement will only intensify.
Simply put, the building blocks for a period of strong and sustained net operating
income growth are solidly in place.
Green
Shoots
INTERNAL
GROWTH
2 02 1
Flower
Buds
2 02 2
Full
Bloom
2 02 3
& Beyond
RELENTLESS PURSUIT OF
HIGHER STANDARDS
As I described in last year’s letter, we
are in the midst of a critical initiative
to professionalize the seniors housing
business through the creation of an
industry-leading operating platform. The
process of building out a platform which
encompasses over one thousand seniors
housing properties across three countries
has been exhausting, expensive, and, at
times, downright frustrating. Nevertheless,
it is absolutely necessary. Under the
leadership of our COO, John Burkart, we
continue to attract incredible talent from
outside of the healthcare real estate sector
to drive this imperative. Just a few months
ago, John convinced Jerry Davis, another
prolific operator in the multifamily space,
to join Welltower as a strategic advisor.
Jerry previously spent 30 years at UDR, an
S&P 500 multifamily REIT, most recently
serving as President and COO of the
company. John and Jerry (known as J2),
amongst others, upended the multifamily
sector through the use of technology
and data, resulting in extraordinary
growth for their respective companies
(and tremendous value creation for their
investors). The path we are currently
pursuing is a similar one. And, as our
investors have very well come to know,
we will never hesitate to take the tough
road as long as it’s in the interest of
long-term value creation. At Welltower,
we are relentless in our pursuit of
higher standards.
EXTERNAL GROWTH
2022 was another extraordinary year for
Welltower, as we completed over $4.0
billion of pro rata gross investments across
a wide range of opportunities. As you have
come to expect from us, these deals were
executed in a granular and off-market
manner and completed at a significant
discount to replacement cost.
While we are pleased with our teams’
success in sourcing and executing on these
deals, our opportunity set has expanded
dramatically in recent months – across
property sectors, regions, and up and
down the capital stack. Following the Fed’s
unprecedented monetary tightening over
the past year, distress has emerged across
the commercial real estate space. Yet, few
large participants are able to capitalize on
the opportunity due to significant equity
outflows from core and other real estate
investment vehicles and a significant
tightening in lending standards by most
financial institutions. This confluence of
events has created an exceedingly rare
moment in which seniors housing sector
fundamentals are rapidly improving while,
simultaneously, we are one of very few
companies positioned to deploy capital in
size, at an attractive basis, and with in-
place cash flow.
Ultimately, our capital deployment
strategy, which focuses on buying assets
when they’re out of favor (or with little to
no competition), at the right price, and
in the right structure, allows for outsized
returns with a large margin of safety.
We believe that basis (i.e. price) – not
exposure – is the ultimate mitigant of risk.
And, as always, we will remain disciplined
and patient, but not fearful of taking
bold and decisive action when the right
opportunities manifest themselves.
APPRECIATION
Before discussing the principles which
embody who we are at Welltower, I would
be remiss not to express my gratitude to
Ken Bacon, our Independent Director and
Board Chairman, and to our committed,
experienced and passionate directors who
have served alongside our team. I am also
deeply grateful to the Welltower team,
which I am convinced is the deepest in
the real estate space (and beyond) with
the longest runway ahead. And to you,
our fellow shareholders, I remain humbled
by the trust you have placed in our team
and for your continued support during
both the highs and lows of the past few
years. We have never been as excited
about our future as we are today and look
forward to the journey ahead with you.
GROUND RULES
After a whirlwind period for our Company
and industry, I thought it would be
instructive to take a step back and reflect
upon a simple, yet thought-provoking
question posed to me by a legendary
investor whom I am also privileged to
call a mentor and a father figure: as we
embark on this journey to drive long-
term per share growth, who do we seek
as our investor partners? Because, in his
words, “you deserve the shareholder
you get.” Our management team has
spent significant time considering this
question and has created a set of ground
rules or common principles which form
the philosophical foundation for how
we run the Company – with our ultimate
goal of generating superior returns for
our continuing shareholders on both
an absolute and relative basis. We have
included these principles below.
At Welltower, we believe that stock is the
fractional ownership of a business, not
a ticker symbol. Hence, as an investor,
you are a partner in this business. This
is no different from owning a lemonade
stand or a farm together. We take the
responsibility of managing the business
with utmost pride and promise to always
act in the best interests of the long-term
continuing owners of the Company.
And, because of that, we think you
should know what we represent and, as
importantly, what we do not.
We believe that a great investment has
three characteristics:
1) superior returns
2) lower risk
3) long duration or longevity
While much of the investment world is
focused on #1, we are equally focused
on #2 and #3. We recommend that you
do not invest in our Company unless the
following principles resonate with you.
IT IS ALL ABOUT:
LONG-TERM CAPITAL ALLOCATION
We, as capital allocators, strive every day to create per share value by compounding over
a LONG PERIOD OF TIME. While we hope near-term priorities do not conflict with those
of the long term, practically speaking, we often encounter situations where these time
horizons diverge. It is critical that our investors understand that, at these crossroads,
we will always follow the path to long-term value creation at the expense of short-term
gains. These ideas include:
• An adherence to a capital allocation framework fixated on risk-adjusted total
cash returns (IRRs) through the lens of opportunity cost rather than GAAP
earnings accretion. We will not hesitate to make capital allocation decisions,
which are a drag today but have the potential to create significant value
tomorrow
• Making bold, long-term investment decisions that may not be initially popular on
Wall Street. In fact, you can count on us to do so
• A willingness to sacrifice near-term financial returns for opportunities to build
long-term win/win partnerships which will add significant longevity to our
superior returns. That is, we are focused on sowing seeds for the best long-term
interests of our partnership; not harvesting short-term gains to please Wall Street
• Real estate is a long-term business. It takes at least three years for an acquisition
to play out and perhaps five years for a development to do so. Hence, we prefer
a five-year relative performance measurement period but insist on a window of at
least three years to gauge performance of the partnership
• Our capital allocation decisions today, the power of our platform, and the long-
term value creation we hope to achieve, may not be captured in point-in-time
earnings multiples or NAV but, instead, will be reflected through a long-term cash
flow growth analysis
• Remaining within our circle of competence, which we define as the area where
we can assess and allocate capital with house odds rather than gamblers’ odds.
We invest within the boundaries of probabilities while acknowledging that the
boundaries of possibilities are much wider. We remain humble and remind
ourselves each day that we could be wrong; yet, we are unafraid to look foolish.
This is a game of batting average
MARKET LEADERSHIP AND MOAT
While capital intensive infrastructure businesses rarely possess a competitive advantage,
we firmly believe we have established a deep and wide moat through our data analytics
and operating platform, and uniquely entrepreneurial culture. We focus on fairness and
creating win/win solutions which result in an additive-sum mentality as opposed to the
zero-sum mentality which is prevalent in our industry.
• Over the course of many years, we have built an industry-leading predictive
analytics platform which requires exceptional people, a perpetual supply of
myriad and expensive data sources, and constant evolution. We do not sacrifice
the quality and the depth of the platform because the cost drag may hurt
quarterly earnings. While value remains part of our ethos, we will not hesitate to
invest money in people and ideas which will help expand our moat
• Our proprietary predictive analytics platform allows us to make capital allocation
decisions through a probabilistic framework that is focused on biasing outcomes
in our favor rather than chasing the illusion of certainties
• We are the clean shirt in an industry where re-trading counterparties is the norm.
We believe our handshake is worth more than a contract. This means we will
leave pennies on the table today to earn dollars tomorrow. Our reputation is one
of doing first-class business in a first-class way
• We only engage in businesses with clear market leadership and a differentiated
view of how to create shareholder value. Following the herd only results in
mediocre returns. We seek advantageous divergences in our specific niches
THE PEOPLE
We take great pride in the culture of our organization, with a foundation built on
mutually beneficial solutions where all parties are motivated and incentivized by the
same goals. Everyone is all in. We do not take advantage of our counterparties because
we are a large company with access to an army of lawyers. We believe that just because
you can do something doesn’t mean you should. We treat people the way we want to be
treated - in an old fashioned, Ben Franklin way.
• We aim to attract the best and brightest to our team and we retain them long-
term by providing a meritocracy-based environment that is entrepreneurial,
collaborative, and transparent. We are focused on value – NOT cost – while
rewarding our people. But, in all cases, our compensation structure is very
simple – we eat our own cooking and we get paid a fraction of the profits
generated for our investors
• We believe in bringing in people from industries with higher standards. In
other words, we value a desire for constant improvement and emphasize
kinetic energy over experience and potential energy
• We are all students, continuously learning and applying lessons from
great businesses and capital allocators in all industries. We do not confine
ourselves to Wall Street’s version of real estate or its perception of how a
real estate company should operate its business. There is no complacency
at Welltower; instead we operate with “healthy paranoia” looking to always
push forward and up. Like the Navy Seals, we believe “the only easy day is
yesterday.” Hence if your goal is to solve for a stable and passive exposure, we
recommend you look elsewhere
• Being an extreme fiduciary is our pride; not just our responsibility. Decades
from now, we want to be known as one of the best capital allocators of any
industry. Long-term compounding is what we are truly after
BASIS AND STAYING POWER
We believe the accepted model of investing in real estate – one which is focused
on cap rates – is a faulty and dangerous one (if you don’t know what a cap rate is,
consider yourself lucky). We think there are two metrics which cannot be faked
while investing in real estate:
1) basis (price per unit or price per foot) when buying
2) realized unlevered total returns when selling
Hence, our strong belief that capital allocation priorities should be judged by
these two metrics. And, because we are focused on the long-term and believe in a
handshake business, it is of paramount importance that we have staying power to
see the thesis play out and a balance sheet that no counterparty ever questions.
We absolutely believe that real estate is a leverageable asset class where our
point-in-time leverage may appear suboptimal depending on where we are in the
cycle. However, we want you to understand that in the context of how we operate
our business (i.e. contrarian investment philosophy in a handshake format) we are
required to think about our balance sheet through an entire cycle and not at a
point-in-time.
Best regards,
Shankh Mitra
CEO, Welltower Inc.
RISK AS DEFINED BY PERMANENT CAPITAL LOSS;
NOT VOLATILITY
As mentioned above, one of the hallmarks of a great investment is lower risk. While
many efficient market theory proponents believe that an asset’s risk is defined by its
level of volatility, we strongly disagree. At Welltower, we believe that risk should be
assessed through the lens of permanent capital loss; not volatility. In order to reduce
risk, we seek a large margin of safety in all of our capital allocation decisions – that
is, acquiring assets for less than what it costs to build. We believe it is important to
understand this key point of differentiation between ourselves and others as it relates
to risk. We would also note that a vast majority of our management’s personal wealth
is invested with the partnership as compared to many shareholders who benefit from a
diversified portfolio. In addition to the tomatoes you will deservedly throw at us, please
remember that a permanent loss of capital will likely impact our life’s work and wealth
disproportionately. We are all in with you and highly focused on permanent capital loss;
not winning a popularity contest.
We hope these principles provide you with perspective on who we are and how we think
about creating per share value for our long-term continuing owners. Each day, we strive
to not only be the employer of choice and the partner of choice but also the investment
of choice. We therefore believe it is as important for us to find the right capital allocation
opportunities as it is the right long-term investors.
We look forward to learning more about you and we hope you will about us.