MSJ-100 Index
1,036.65
Signal breadth
4 Bullish 93 Neutral 3 Bearish Avg confidence 6.16 / 10
View full MSJ-100 ↗
UPS
United Parcel Service Inc.
Industrials · NYSE: UPS · MSJ-100
$113.67
▲ $0.78  (▲0.69%) today
After-hours: $113.21  ▼ 0.40%
Headquarters
Atlanta, GA
Employees
460,000
Founded
1907
CEO
Ms. Carol B. Tome
Incorporated
Delaware
Fiscal Year End
December
Analyst price target range Free
Avg target $114.65
$114 now
Bear $76 Avg $115 Bull $135
Price history Free
Volume
3.07M
Avg volume
5.59M
Open
$113.38
Day high / low
$114.02 / $111.34
Market cap
$96.6B
About this company
Free
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is a global package delivery and logistics provider operating in over 200 countries and territories. The company offers a broad range of services including integrated air and ground transportation, distribution, contract logistics, freight, customs brokerage, and insurance.
UPS focuses on growing its healthcare, business-to-business, small- and medium-sized businesses, and international segments.
Business segments
10-K
U.S. Domestic Package International Package Supply Chain Solutions
Recent News
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Earnings call: Q1 2025 2025
Intel
Free
2025-04-??Optimistic
● Full transcript on file
Key metrics
Revenue: $21.5B (down 0.7% YoY); Operating profit: $1.8B (up 0.9% YoY); EPS: up 4.2%.
Forward guidance
Strategic cost reductions and network reconfiguration to drive future improvements.
Notable Q&A
Surprise items
EPS growth despite revenue decline, highlighting cost discipline.
Q1 2026 (Apr 23, 2026) · Optimistic Q4 2025 (Jan 30, 2026) · Neutral
Fundamentals
Signal
52-week high / low
$122.41 / $82.00
Forward P/E
14.2×
Trailing 18.3×
Dividend
$6.56 / share
Yield 5.81%
Analysts covering
26
Avg target $114.65
Beta
1.03
vs. S&P 500
Short interest
3.1%
Float shorted
Buy
50%
Hold
39%
Sell
11%
Wall Street consensus — sourced weekly via public disclosures
Analyst coverage data sourced from public filings. Xavier analyst thesis summary available after weekly Perplexity scan completes.
Financial summary — Gemini analysis
Signal
Revenue
$88,661 million
-2.6% YoY
Operating margin
8.9%
Net income
$5,572 million
Free cash flow
$4,765 million
Dividend / share
$6.56
Total debt
$23,519 million
Cash: $5,887 million
CapEx guidance
Approximately $3.0 billion for all of 2026
Earnings quality: HIGH
Cash conversion:1.5x
Non-recurring items: Transformation Strategy Costs of $593 million, Goodwill and Asset Impairment Charges of $182 million (primarily related to MD-11 fleet retirement), Net Loss on Divestiture of $19 million (related to an SCS business), Reversal of Income Tax Valuation Allowance of $109 million (due to property sales generating capital gains)
Source: SEC 10-K filing analyzed by Gemini 2.5 Flash · 2026-02-17
Xavier sector view:
Industrials
See journal
View Industrials journal ↗
Xavier's signal
NEUTRAL
Signal
Confidence 5.3 / 10  ·  100% model agreement  ·  Scheduled Jul 12, 2026
UPS is executing a multi-year restructuring that is directionally correct but offers no near-term edge for a 5-day holding period. The stock has already rallied ~37% from its 52-week low and is trading within ~2% of the consensus analyst price target ($114.65), leaving limited upside priced in ahead of Q2 earnings on July 28. The Amazon competitive threat — with rates reportedly up to 30% below UPS/FedEx — is a freshly re-activated headline risk that could cap any rally and has already caused sharp single-session selloffs this year.
Strongest bull case
Forward P/E of ~14x is meaningfully below the sector average and UPS's own historical range of 20–25x; combined with a 5.8% dividend yield and reaffirmed FY2026 guidance ($89.7B revenue, 9.6% adj. operating margin), the valuation floor provides downside support even in a choppy tape.
Strongest bear case
Amazon Shipping is actively undercutting UPS with rates reportedly up to 30% lower and waived surcharges (as of July 9–11, 2026), Morgan Stanley just reiterated its Underweight/$76 target warning that Amazon overnight delivery is coming, the stock already dropped 10% in a single session earlier this year on a similar Amazon headline, and the current bounce back to $112 looks technically vulnerable to a repeat selloff — especially with earnings 11 trading days away and short ratio at 4.26x.
What the market may be missing
The bull consensus is treating the Amazon volume glide-down as 'known and priced in,' but the structural threat has now morphed: Amazon is no longer just pulling its own volume — it is actively soliciting UPS's third-party corporate customer base with below-cost pricing. This changes the revenue replacement math for SMB/healthcare volumes and could make the H2 2026 'inflection point' narrative look premature when Q2 results land on July 28.
Model breakdown
Signal
Atlas (Claude) — NEUTRAL
Meridian (GPT-4) — NEUTRAL
Grayline (Grok) — NEUTRAL
Vantage (Gemini) — NEUTRAL
msj100_UPS_20260712T003715Z
Peer comparison
Signal
UPS
current
$113.67 ▲0.7%
EMR
NEUTRAL
$138.88
CAT
NEUTRAL
$952.41
HON
NEUTRAL
$226.42
GE
NEUTRAL
$359.27
Recent SEC filings
Signal
P2 AUTO
8-K — 2026-06-15
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-05-15
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-05-15
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-05-15
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-05-15
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
CEO scorecard — Carol Tomé
Signal summary
Full detail Pro
CT
Carol Tomé
Chief Executive Officer · United Parcel Service Inc.
CEO since 2020
Total compensation
$22,878,788 ▼ 4.9% YoY
Prior year: $24,063,977
Pay vs performance
Aligned
Board assessment
Say-on-pay approval
84%
Shareholder vote
Board independence
11/12 (92%)
Base salary$1,509,713
Bonus / incentive
Stock awards$17,550,546
Executive appearances
Intel
Free
Investor DayApr 28, 2026
UPS First Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call Source ↗
Ms. Carol B. Tome (CEO) · UPS Investor Relations
Carol Tomé discussed UPS's 1Q 2026 financial results, including consolidated revenues of $21.2B, operating margin of 6.0% (adjusted 6.2%), and diluted EPS of $1.02 (adjusted $1.07). She thanked UPS employees for advancing the company's transformation
““I want to thank UPSers around the world for their hard work and efforts, and for pushing our transformation forward.””
Investor DayApr 28, 2026
UPS First Quarter 2026 Earnings Call Source ↗
Ms. Carol B. Tome (CEO) · Morningstar Earnings Transcripts
In the earnings call transcript, Carol Tomé as CEO joined CFO Brian Dykes to review first-quarter 2026 performance with investors and analysts. Discussion covered key financial metrics, operational updates, and transformation initiatives. The session
CEO letter to shareholders
Signal
Full letter Pro
Carol B. Tomé 2025 Annual Report OPTIMISTIC

Dear Fellow Shareowners,

In 2025, UPS took decisive steps to strengthen revenue quality while reconfiguring our network to deliver differentiated logistics capabilities. We also navigated a rapidly evolving macro landscape, marked by shifts in global trade policies and increasing geopolitical uncertainty. Our actions position UPS for sustained long-term growth and value creation for our shareowners.

To that end, here are some highlights for the full year 2025:

  • Delivered $3.5 billion in planned savings through network reconfiguration and our Efficiency Reimagined initiatives, reaching our Amazon volume reduction target of approximately one million pieces per day¹. As part of this effort, we streamlined our U.S. footprint by closing 93 buildings and deploying automation in 57 facilities.
  • Delivered industry-leading service, providing the best average on-time performance during peak season of any carrier in the U.S. over the last eight years².
  • Maintained discipline on revenue quality and product mix, driving 7.1% U.S. revenue-per-piece growth year over year.
  • Shifted our U.S. mix toward premium volume, increasing small and medium-sized business (SMB) penetration to 31.8% and growing business-to-business (B2B) volume to 42.3% of total U.S. volume.
  • Grew revenue from DAP, our Digital Access Program, by 25% year over year, reaching $4.1 billion globally.
  • Expanded our U.S. non-GAAP adjusted operating margin* by 20 basis points, despite an average daily volume decline of 8.6%.
  • Completed the acquisitions of FrigoTrans and Andlauer Healthcare Group, further expanding our healthcare cold chain capabilities. In 2025, our global healthcare portfolio generated $11.2 billion in revenue, advancing our goal to become the world's leading complex healthcare logistics provider.
  • Grew revenue in our UPS Digital business, which includes Roadie and Happy Returns, by 24% year over year.
  • Deployed Smart Package Smart Facility, our RFID labeling solution, to 5,500 UPS Store locations and completed installing RFID readers in all U.S. package cars.
  • Generated $88.7 billion in consolidated revenue with a non-GAAP adjusted operating margin of 9.8%*.
  • Maintained disciplined capital allocation, generating $8.5 billion in cash from operations and returning $6.4 billion to shareowners in the form of dividends and share repurchases.

Being Customer First means configuring our network and capabilities around what matters most to our customers: speed, ease and reliability. While UPS is best known for small package delivery, we are expanding far beyond that foundation. Our RFID labeling solution improves end-to-end visibility and inventory management for high-value and time-sensitive shipments. Our healthcare cold-chain capabilities are designed to keep temperature-sensitive products safe, compliant and delivered on time. DAP integrates UPS shipping into the marketplaces and e-commerce platforms SMBs already use. Solutions like Roadie and Happy Returns extend our digital ecosystem with same-day delivery and frictionless box-free and label-free returns.

Innovation is also central to how we operate. Automation and AI power our integrated network, driver dispatching, pricing and customer support. In 2025, we expanded AI usage to manage a more than 300% increase in our customs brokerage filings resulting from evolving global trade policies. By year end we were processing more than 90% of all cross-border transactions digitally.

Looking ahead, we are building on our momentum as we complete the Amazon volume glide down and further advance our network reconfiguration efforts. By the end of June 2026, we will reach an inflection point emerging with a smaller, more automated network, purpose-built to support premium volume growth. Our 2026 second half performance will better reflect our go-forward financial performance, with a focus on top-line growth and operating margin expansion.

Our strategy is not about shrinking UPS. It is about growing in the most attractive parts of the market including enterprise, SMB, B2B, healthcare, and international. It is about delivering differentiated value to our customers, improving long-term profitability, and delivering value for our shareowners through disciplined capital allocation.

As we approach our Annual Meeting in May, I encourage all shareowners to vote your shares. This is your opportunity to share your views with us. We listen carefully and incorporate your feedback as we work to grow our business, strengthen governance and create long-term shareowner value. If you have any questions or comments, please contact us at 404-828-6059.

We are moving our world forward by delivering what matters. None of our achievements would be possible without the dedication and hard work of UPSers around the globe. Their commitment was tested last November after the tragic accident of UPS Flight 2976. As we mourn the three UPSers and twelve civilians who lost their lives, I remain deeply grateful for the strength, compassion and unwavering service of our People. Their resilience honors the memory of those we lost and reflects the very best of who we are.

Thank you for your support.

Carol B. Tomé
Chief Executive Officer

Xavier analysis
The CEO's letter emphasizes decisive strategic actions, significant achievements in efficiency and growth areas, and a clear vision for sustained long-term value creation, despite acknowledging a challenging macro environment and a tragic event.
Strategic themes by emphasis
#1Network Reconfiguration & Efficiency
#2Growth in Attractive Segments (SMB, B2B, Healthcare, Digital)
#3Customer Focus & Differentiated Logistics
#4Innovation & Technology (Automation, AI, RFID)
#5Financial Discipline & Shareowner Returns
#6People & Culture
11 named projects & initiatives
Efficiency Reimagined initiatives, FrigoTrans, Andlauer Healthcare Group, DAP, Digital Access Program, UPS Digital business +5 more
5 product, 2 acquisition, 2 technology, 1 restructuring, 1 other
Forward-looking statements
5 total: 0 quantified, 5 directional, 0 vague
Capital allocation priority
Returns to Shareowners (dividends and share repurchases) → Cash from Operations for Reinvestment
Key quotes
“In 2025, UPS took decisive steps to strengthen revenue quality while reconfiguring our network to deliver differentiated logistics capabilities. We also navigated a rapidly evolving macro landscape, m”
This opening statement sets the strategic context for the year, highlighting proactive measures in a challenging external environment and clearly stating the long-term value creation objective.
“By the end of June 2026, we will reach an inflection point - emerging with a smaller, more automated network, purpose-built to support premium volume growth.”
This provides a specific future milestone and a clear strategic direction, indicating a transformative completion target for the company's network reconfiguration efforts.
View 2025 Annual Report (PDF) →4 letters on file (2025, 2024, 2023, 2022) · Full history with Pro
Executive compensation
Signal
NameTitleTotal compensation
Carol ToméChief Executive Officer$22,878,788
Brian DykesChief Financial Officer$7,015,650
Nando CesaronePresident U.S. Operations and Airline$7,778,278
Kate GutmannPresident International, Healthcare and Supply Chain Solutions$8,350,636
Bala SubramanianChief Digital and Technology Officer$6,750,476
Source: DEF 14A proxy statement · 2026-03-19
Governance
Pro
Dual-class shares: Yes
Poison pill: No
Clawback policy: Yes
Stock ownership req.: Yes
Shareholder proposals
Reduce the Voting Power of Class A Stock from 10 Votes Per Share to One Vote Per
AGAINST
Pending
Requesting an Independent Third-Party Evaluation of the Impacts of UPS Operation
AGAINST
Pending
Requesting a Report Describing If and How the Company Plans to Align its Operati
AGAINST
Pending
Debt intelligence
Pro
1 CUSIP
1.51x
Debt / Equity
7.0x
Interest coverage
1.1x
Net Debt / EBITDA
$17.9B
Net debt
33%
Debt / Assets
CUSIP identifiers (1 on file)
911312BD7
Xavier risk radar
Pro
Covenant headroom
Moderate leverage — no covenants on file
Earnings quality
High quality (cash conversion 1.5x)
Risk trend
Risk increasing — Changes in our relationships with any of our significant customers, including as
Mgmt narrative
Management tone: Cautiously optimistic
Analyst drift
Consensus Buy — targets stable
Insider sentiment
Pattern detection — 90 days needed
Signal history
Signal
DateDirectionConf.Agree.ThesisPriceType
Jul 12, 2026 NEUTRAL 5.3/10 100% UPS is executing a multi-year restructuring that is directionally correct but offers no near-term ed... $112.47 Sched.
Jul 11, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.3/10 75% UPS screens as roughly fairly valued to modestly inexpensive on forward earnings, but that is offset... $112.47 Sched.
Jun 07, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.0/10 100% UPS is in the middle of a painful but necessary restructuring — closing 51 facilities, cutting 30,00... $108.54 Sched.
May 31, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.2/10 100% UPS is mid-restructuring with Q1 2026 earnings down 27% YoY, operating margin compressed to 6.0%, an... $106.69 Sched.
May 24, 2026 NEUTRAL 5.5/10 100% UPS is mid-transformation — deliberately shrinking Amazon volume, closing 51 facilities, and targeti... $101.02 Sched.
May 17, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.0/10 75% UPS trades at a modest 16x TTM P/E with a compelling 6.7% dividend yield and reaffirmed $89.7B reven... $98.93 Sched.
May 10, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.1/10 100% UPS is in a structural transition year with Q1 2026 earnings beating modest expectations but net inc... $100.78 Sched.
May 03, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.7/10 75% UPS beat Q1 2026 estimates on both top and bottom lines but shares still sold off ~4% post-earnings,... $107.57 Sched.
May 01, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.2/10 100% UPS just reported Q1 2026 results that beat on EPS ($1.07 adj. vs $1.02 est.) and revenue, yet share... $109.31 Sched.
Apr 17, 2026 NEUTRAL 5.5/10 100% UPS is in the midst of its most consequential structural transition — a 50%+ Amazon volume glide-dow... $105.06 Event
Apr 12, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.0/10 50% UPS is trading at ~$101.70, well below its 52-week high of $122.41 and below the consensus analyst t... $101.70 Sched.
Showing last 11 signals
UPS United Parcel Service Inc.
Signal
FY2026 annual report (10-K filed 2026-02-17)
INCOME STATEMENT
? Revenue
$88,661 million -2.6% YoY
? Operating income
$7,867 million
? Net income
$5,572 million
? Free cash flow
$4,765 million
? EPS (diluted)
$1.02
? Dividend per share
$6.56
Click any row to expand the plain-English explanation. Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings.
Capital intelligence
Signal
Weighted Average Cost of Capital · Return on Invested Capital · Economic Value Added
ROIC
17.15%
WACC
8.07%
🟢 VALUE CREATOR — EVA Spread: 9.08%
? WACC
8.07%
? Cost of equity
9.92%
? Cost of debt (after-tax)
0.47%
? Capital structure
E: 80.42% / D: 19.58%
? ROIC
17.15%
? EVA
$3.0B
? NOPAT
$5.7B
Risk-free rate: 4.25% (10Y Treasury) · Equity risk premium: 5.50% · Sources: total_debt: Gemini 10-K, operating_income: XBRL TTM (4Q sum), interest_expense: Derived (OI - PTI), invested_capital: Equity + Debt - Cash
Xavier consensus signals are intelligence outputs, not investment advice. All signals are generated by a multi-model AI system and reflect public information at time of generation. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future performance. Wall Street analyst consensus sourced from public disclosures, summarized weekly. Financial data sourced from SEC EDGAR and yfinance. Insider transactions sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 4 filings. Updated Jul 12, 2026.