MSJ-100 Index
1,036.65
Signal breadth
4 Bullish 93 Neutral 3 Bearish Avg confidence 6.16 / 10
View full MSJ-100 ↗
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
Health Care · NYSE: UNH · MSJ-100
$425.19
▼ $3.90  (▼0.91%) today
After-hours: $425.55  ▲ 0.08%
Headquarters
Eden Prairie, MN
Employees
390,000
Founded
1977
CEO
Mr. Stephen J. Hemsley
Incorporated
Delaware
Fiscal Year End
December
Analyst price target range Free
Avg target $424.23
$425 now
Bear $287 Avg $424 Bull $492
Price history Free
Volume
5.14M
Avg volume
7.17M
Open
$431.00
Day high / low
$432.15 / $421.79
Market cap
$386.1B
About this company
Free
UnitedHealth Group is a diversified health care and well-being company operating through two primary segments: Optum and UnitedHealthcare. Optum provides technology-enabled health services, including care delivery, data analytics, and pharmacy care services, to a broad marketplace. UnitedHealthcare offers a comprehensive range of health benefits plans and services to individuals, employers, and government programs, aiming to simplify healthcare and improve affordability.
Business segments
10-K
Optum Health Optum Insight Optum Rx UnitedHealthcare
Recent News
Loading news...
Earnings call: Q2 2026 2026
Intel
Free
Jul 16, 2026Neutral
● Full transcript on file
Stephen J. Hemsley (CEO), Wayne S. DeVeydt (Chief Financial Officer)
Key metrics
A market result page in the search results indicated expected Q2 2026 EPS of $4.84 and revenue of $110.76 billion, but these were analyst expectations rather than reported results. No confirmed post-call reported metrics were available in the provided sources.
Forward guidance
The company had scheduled its Q2 2026 earnings call for July 16 at 8 a.m. ET, but no actual transcript was available in the provided search results. Because the transcript is not present in the supplied sources, forward guidance from the call cannot be reliably summarized here.
Notable Q&A
No verified Q&A transcript was available in the provided results, so no exchange can be accurately summarized.
Surprise items
The transcript for the most recent quarter was not available in the supplied results, so any surprise items would be speculative. The investor relations page confirmed the earnings call date, but not the spoken remarks or Q&A.
Q1 2026 (Apr 17, 2026) · Confident Q4 2025 (Jan 16, 2026) · Neutral
Fundamentals
Signal
52-week high / low
$434.30 / $234.60
Forward P/E
20.2×
Trailing 32.1×
Dividend
$9.28 / share
Yield 2.16%
Analysts covering
26
Avg target $424.23
Beta
0.63
vs. S&P 500
Short interest
2.3%
Float shorted
Buy
81%
Hold
15%
Sell
4%
Wall Street consensus — sourced weekly via public disclosures
Analyst coverage data sourced from public filings. Xavier analyst thesis summary available after weekly Perplexity scan completes.
Financial summary — Gemini analysis
Signal
Revenue
$447,567 million
12% YoY
Operating margin
4.2%
Net income
$12,056 million
Free cash flow
$16,075 million
Dividend / share
$8.84
Total debt
$78,389 million
Cash: $24,365 million
Earnings quality: HIGH
Recurring revenue:80%
Cash conversion:1.5x
Non-recurring items: Net gain of $568 million from net portfolio divestitures (recorded in operating costs)., Real estate rationalization and workforce reductions of $746 million., Contractual reassessments of $573 million., Establishment of a loss contract reserve of $623 million related to anticipated future losses in 2026 for certain value-based care businesses.
Source: SEC 10-K filing analyzed by Gemini 2.5 Flash · 2026-03-02
Xavier sector view:
Health Care
See journal
View Health Care journal ↗
Xavier's signal
NEUTRAL
Signal
Confidence 6.0 / 10  ·  100% model agreement  ·  Scheduled Jun 07, 2026
UNH has surged ~70% from its 52-week low and is now pressing against its all-time high ($404.15), with the stock at $399.47 — leaving virtually no margin of safety after the June 4 BofA/Morgan Stanley upgrade-driven 5%+ rally has already been absorbed. The near-term bull catalysts (improving medical cost trends, 3% Medicare Advantage rate increase for 2027, dividend hike) appear largely priced in at a TTM P/E of ~30x against near-zero earnings growth (~0.7%), while persistent DOJ criminal/civil investigations, a fresh Massachusetts $100M MassHealth overbilling lawsuit, and a neutral-to-bearish macro regime cap conviction on either side.
Strongest bull case
BofA (target $450) and Morgan Stanley (target $453) both upgraded/raised targets citing sustainably lower medical utilization in April-May and a strong Q2 setup — if Q2 earnings (next month) confirm durable margin recovery, the stock re-rates meaningfully higher from current levels.
Strongest bear case
The stock is within 1.2% of its 52-week high ($404.15) with a consensus analyst target of only $404.85 — implying just 1.3% upside — while the DOJ maintains active criminal and civil investigations into Medicare Advantage billing practices, and a new Massachusetts AG lawsuit alleging $100M+ in Medicaid overbilling adds a fresh, unquantified legal overhang that could accelerate headline risk in the next 5 trading days.
What the market may be missing
The market is treating the BofA/Morgan Stanley upgrade as a clean recovery signal, but the consensus $405 price target — set before the June 4 pop — is effectively already breached at current levels, meaning the stock is now trading above most models' fair value while still carrying binary DOJ criminal investigation risk. The upgrade catalyst has burned fast, leaving the stock near resistance with no remaining near-term institutional price target buffer and a Q2 earnings event still a month away.
Model breakdown
Signal
Atlas (Claude) — NEUTRAL
Meridian (GPT-4) — NEUTRAL
Grayline (Grok) — NEUTRAL
Vantage (Gemini) — NEUTRAL
msj100_UNH_20260607T023001Z
Peer comparison
Signal
UNH
current
$425.19 ▼0.9%
PFE
NEUTRAL
$24.17
ISRG
NEUTRAL
$406.78
ABBV
NEUTRAL
$248.08
JNJ
NEUTRAL
$256.98
Recent SEC filings
Signal
LOG
4 — 2026-07-06
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-07-06
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-07-06
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-07-06
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-07-06
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
CEO scorecard — Stephen Hemsley
Signal summary
Full detail Pro
SH
Stephen Hemsley
Chair and Chief Executive Officer · UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
CEO since May 2025
Total compensation
$60,938,062
Pay vs performance
MODERATE
Board assessment
Say-on-pay approval
60%
Shareholder vote
Board independence
8/9 (89%)
Base salary$1,000,000
Bonus / incentive
Stock awards
CEO letter to shareholders
Signal
No shareholder letter on file for UNH
Some companies file their annual report without a separate CEO letter. When available, Xavier extracts strategic themes, tone analysis, and forward-looking statements to help you read between the lines.
Executive compensation
Signal
NameTitleTotal compensation
Stephen HemsleyChief Executive Officer$60,938,062
Wayne DeVeydtChief Financial Officer$14,582,684
Timothy NoelChief Executive Officer, UnitedHealthcare$20,201,746
Patrick Conway, M.D.Chief Executive Officer, Optum$19,922,610
Christopher ZaettaExecutive Vice President Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary$15,792,307
Source: DEF 14A proxy statement · 2026-04-21
Governance
Pro
Dual-class shares: No
Poison pill: No
Clawback policy: Yes
Stock ownership req.: Yes
Shareholder proposals
Adoption of a Policy to Require Any Board Chair to Be Independent
AGAINST
Pending
Debt intelligence
Pro
0.69x
Debt / Equity
4.8x
Interest coverage
$43.4B
Net debt
23%
Debt / Assets
Interest coverage trend (EBITDA / Interest expense)
9.0x
24-06
9.1x
24-09
10.2x
25-03
6.1x
25-06
5.4x
25-09
10.5x
26-03
Xavier risk radar
Pro
Covenant headroom
Low leverage — no covenants required
Earnings quality
High quality (cash conversion 1.5x)
Risk trend
Risk increasing — Cyberattacks and data security incidents, including those impacting third-party
Mgmt narrative
Management tone: Cautiously optimistic
Analyst drift
Consensus Buy — targets stable
Insider sentiment
Pattern detection — 90 days needed
Signal history
Signal
DateDirectionConf.Agree.ThesisPriceType
Jun 07, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.0/10 100% UNH has surged ~70% from its 52-week low and is now pressing against its all-time high ($404.15), wi... $399.47 Sched.
May 31, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.0/10 75% UNH faces a compounding legal and regulatory overhang that is actively worsening: a fresh Massachuse... $380.31 Sched.
May 24, 2026 NEUTRAL 5.3/10 100% UNH has rebounded to within about 4% of its 52-week high, leaving limited near-term upside versus th... $388.47 Sched.
May 17, 2026 BEARISH 6.4/10 75% UNH has staged a sharp recovery (~28% in 30 days) from its multi-year lows on the back of a genuine ... $393.85 Sched.
May 10, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.1/10 67% UNH has rebounded to within roughly 2% of its 52-week high and is trading essentially in line with c... $379.98 Sched.
May 03, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.2/10 100% UNH has already rallied ~35% in the past month on a strong Q1 2026 earnings beat — adjusted EPS of $... $368.78 Sched.
Apr 12, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.5/10 50% UNH enters the next five trading days in a precarious but event-driven setup: Q1 2026 earnings drop ... $304.33 Sched.
Showing last 7 signals
UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
Signal
FY2026 annual report (10-K filed 2026-03-02)
INCOME STATEMENT
? Revenue
$447,567 million 12% YoY
? Operating income
$18,964 million
? Net income
$12,056 million
? Free cash flow
$16,075 million
? EPS (diluted)
$6.90
? Dividend per share
$8.84
Click any row to expand the plain-English explanation. Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings.
Capital intelligence
Signal
Weighted Average Cost of Capital · Return on Invested Capital · Economic Value Added
ROIC
10.08%
WACC
6.69%
🟢 VALUE CREATOR — EVA Spread: 3.39%
? WACC
6.69%
? Cost of equity
7.73%
? Cost of debt (after-tax)
1.05%
? Capital structure
E: 84.39% / D: 15.61%
? ROIC
10.08%
? EVA
$5.0B
? NOPAT
$14.9B
Risk-free rate: 4.25% (10Y Treasury) · Equity risk premium: 5.50% · Sources: total_debt: XBRL, operating_income: XBRL TTM (4Q sum), interest_expense: XBRL, invested_capital: Equity + Debt - Cash
Xavier consensus signals are intelligence outputs, not investment advice. All signals are generated by a multi-model AI system and reflect public information at time of generation. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future performance. Wall Street analyst consensus sourced from public disclosures, summarized weekly. Financial data sourced from SEC EDGAR and yfinance. Insider transactions sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 4 filings. Updated Jun 07, 2026.