MSJ-100 Index
1,036.65
Signal breadth
4 Bullish 93 Neutral 3 Bearish Avg confidence 6.16 / 10
View full MSJ-100 ↗
TTD
The Trade Desk Inc.
Communication Services · NYSE: TTD · MSJ-100
$18.94
▼ $0.85  (▼4.30%) today
After-hours: $18.96  ▲ 0.10%
Headquarters
Ventura, CA
Employees
3,843
Founded
2009
CEO
Mr. Jeffrey Terry Green
Incorporated
Nevada
Fiscal Year End
December
Analyst price target range Free
Avg target $24.32
$19 now
Bear $11 Avg $24 Bull $38
Price history Free
Volume
13.74M
Avg volume
19.63M
Open
$19.04
Day high / low
$19.47 / $18.91
Market cap
$8.9B
About this company
Free
The Trade Desk, Inc. is a global advertising technology company that provides a self-service platform for ad buyers to create, manage, and optimize digital advertising campaigns across various formats, channels, and devices. Its AI-powered platform offers advanced decisioning, data integration, and access to a rich ecosystem of inventory and data partners for advertising agencies and advertisers, focusing on the buy-side of the digital advertising industry.
Recent News
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Earnings call: Q1 2026 2026
Intel
Free
May 07, 2026Optimistic
Jeff Green (Founder and Chief Executive Officer), Laura Schenkein (Chief Financial Officer), Will Coates (Vice President, Investor Relations)
Key metrics
For Q1 2026, The Trade Desk reported year-over-year revenue growth in the mid-teens percentage range, reflecting ongoing share gains in programmatic advertising.[5] Adjusted EBITDA margin remained solid, with non-GAAP EPS positive and ahead of internal expectations, supported by operating leverage and controlled headcount and infrastructure costs.[
Forward guidance
Management guided for continued strong revenue growth driven by increasing advertiser adoption of programmatic and the company’s Unified ID and retail media offerings, while acknowledging a still-mixed macro environment for ad spend.[4][5] They emphasized ongoing investment in AI, measurement, and CTV capabilities, but reiterated a commitment to ma
Notable Q&A
One notable exchange involved an analyst asking about the pace of signal loss from third-party cookies and the impact on advertiser behavior; management responded that while deprecation remains gradual, advertisers are increasingly testing and shifting toward UID2 and first‑party data solutions, whi
Surprise items
Management highlighted stronger‑than‑expected traction in retail media and shopper marketing budgets flowing through The Trade Desk’s platform, suggesting this category may become a larger growth driver than previously assumed.[4][5] They also noted that advertiser testing of UID2 and alternative id
Q4 2025 (Feb 13, 2025) · Optimistic
Fundamentals
Signal
52-week high / low
$91.45 / $16.98
Forward P/E
8.8×
Trailing 21.5×
Dividend
Analysts covering
30
Avg target $24.32
Beta
1.04
vs. S&P 500
Short interest
21.1%
Float shorted
Buy
36%
Hold
53%
Sell
11%
Wall Street consensus — sourced weekly via public disclosures
Analyst coverage data sourced from public filings. Xavier analyst thesis summary available after weekly Perplexity scan completes.
Financial summary — Gemini analysis
Signal
Revenue
$2,896,284 thousand
18% YoY
Operating margin
20.4%
Net income
$443,304 thousand
Free cash flow
$782,958 thousand
Dividend / share
Total debt
$0
Cash: $658,175 thousand
Earnings quality: HIGH
Cash conversion:2.2x
Non-recurring items: Decrease in CEO Performance Option stock-based compensation expense by $61 million due to graded-vesting attribution method, Acquisition of certain assets accounted for as a business combination for $4.35 million
Source: SEC 10-K filing analyzed by Gemini 2.5 Flash · 2026-02-27
Xavier sector view:
Communication Services
See journal
View Communication Services journal ↗
Xavier's signal
NEUTRAL
Signal
Confidence 5.9 / 10  ·  100% model agreement  ·  Scheduled Jul 12, 2026
TTD is caught in a structural deceleration story: revenue growth has sequentially declined from 25% to 12% YoY, EBITDA margins are compressing, and the CRO departure signals internal instability. The forward P/E of ~9x looks cheap but reflects legitimate fundamental doubt about whether growth can re-accelerate against entrenched walled gardens (Google, Meta, Amazon). With Q2 earnings not until August 6, there is no near-term catalyst to break the stock out of its ~$17–$21 range.
Strongest bull case
Q2 guidance of at least $750M revenue (~8% YoY growth) with a 40%+ full-year EBITDA margin target, a $1.4B cash balance, active buybacks, >95% customer retention, and a forward PEG of ~0.58 relative to peers all suggest the stock is pricing in a worst-case scenario that may be too severe.
Strongest bear case
The CRO (Anders Mortenson) was forced out after just seven months — a clear sign of top-level commercial dysfunction — while Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta are actively taking programmatic market share using AI-enhanced walled gardens, directly threatening TTD's core open-internet DSP value proposition and constraining the revenue growth path.
What the market may be missing
The Publicis settlement removes a major near-term overhang (Publicis had told clients to stop using TTD over billing disputes), yet the stock has not recovered meaningfully — suggesting the market is correctly skeptical that growth re-acceleration can occur without a permanent fix to the structural walled-garden competition, not just a patch to agency relations. The Criteo takeover buzz (Vista/Quinti interest per Bloomberg) is a minor speculative distraction and not a TTD catalyst.
Model breakdown
Signal
Atlas (Claude) — NEUTRAL
Meridian (GPT-4) — NEUTRAL
Grayline (Grok) — NEUTRAL
Vantage (Gemini) — NEUTRAL
msj100_TTD_20260712T003715Z
Peer comparison
Signal
TTD
current
$18.94 ▼4.3%
VZ
NEUTRAL
$42.12
T
NEUTRAL
$21.13
CMCSA
NEUTRAL
$23.57
TMUS
BULLISH
$187.61
Recent SEC filings
Signal
P2 AUTO
8-K — 2026-07-13
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-07-13
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-07-13
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-06-15
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
P2 AUTO
8-K — 2026-06-09
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
CEO scorecard — Jeff T. Green
Signal summary
Full detail Pro
JT
Jeff T. Green
President and Chief Executive Officer, Chairman · The Trade Desk Inc.
CEO since November 2009
Total compensation
$27,431,583 ▲ 306.0% YoY
Prior year: $6,756,299
Pay vs performance
Aligned
Board assessment
Say-on-pay approval
Shareholder vote
Board independence
3/5 (60%)
Base salary$1,350,000
Bonus / incentive$2,804,775
Stock awards$11,589,471
CEO letter to shareholders
Signal
No shareholder letter on file for TTD
Some companies file their annual report without a separate CEO letter. When available, Xavier extracts strategic themes, tone analysis, and forward-looking statements to help you read between the lines.
Executive compensation
Signal
NameTitleTotal compensation
Jeff T. GreenPresident and Chief Executive Officer, Chairman$27,431,583
Tahnil DavisInterim Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
Jay R. GrantChief Legal Officer$9,373,799
Samantha JacobsonChief Strategy Officer, Director$9,363,132
Vivek KundraChief Operating Officer$9,652,876
Source: DEF 14A proxy statement · 2026-04-09
Governance
Pro
Dual-class shares: Yes
Poison pill: No
Clawback policy: Yes
Stock ownership req.: Yes
Shareholder proposals
Election of two Class I directors
FOR
Pending
Non-binding, advisory vote to approve the compensation of named executive office
FOR
Pending
Ratification of the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as independent reg
FOR
Pending
Debt intelligence
Pro
7 debt instruments · 11 unique covenants
9.7x
Interest coverage
Interest coverage trend (EBITDA / Interest expense)
7.7x
24-06
5.6x
24-09
3.9x
25-03
9.3x
25-06
9.8x
25-09
7.3x
26-03
Credit facilities & debt instruments
Credit $750,000,000
AMENDED & RESTATED LOAN AND SECURITY AGREEMENT
Matures 2031-04-14 · Filed 2026-05-07
Floating · SOFR | Prime | Fed Funds
Secured. The Borrower grants a continuing Lien and security interest in all its right, title and interest in and to all Collateral, including accounts, receivables, chattel paper, commercial tort claims, deposit accounts, equipment, general intangibles, inventory, Intellectual Property, investment property, Pledged Interests, and other personal property. This security is only applicable during a 'Collateral and Guarantee Period'. Certain property is 'Excluded Property'.
Credit $450,000,000
Loan and Security Agreement (as amended)
Matures 2026-06-15 · Filed 2023-02-15
Floating · SOFR
Secured. The Borrowers grant the Agent a continuing first priority Lien and security interest in all of their right, title and interest in and to all of the Collateral, including accounts, receivables, chattel paper, commercial tort claims, deposit accounts, equipment, general intangibles, inventory, Intellectual Property, investment property, Pledged Interests, cash, Cash Equivalents, and real estate.
Revolver $450,000,000
Loan and Security Agreement
Matures 2026-06-15 · Filed 2022-02-16
Floating · LIBOR | SOFR | Prime | Fed Funds
Secured. Each Borrower grants the Agent a continuing Lien and security interest in all of its right, title and interest in and to all of the Collateral, wherever located, whether now owned or hereafter acquired. Collateral includes accounts, receivables, chattel paper, commercial tort claims, deposit accounts, equipment, general intangibles, inventory, Intellectual Property, investment property, Pledged Interests, securities accounts, cash, Cash Equivalents, real estate, and other personal property, and proceeds thereof. Excludes 'Excluded Property'.
Revolver $450,000,000
Loan and Security Agreement
Matures 2026-06-15 · Filed 2021-06-17
Floating · LIBOR | Base Rate (Prime Rate | NYFRB Rate | Adjusted LIBO Rate) | SOFR (Term SOFR | Daily Simple SOFR)
Secured. Each Borrower grants the Agent a continuing Lien and security interest in all of its right, title and interest in and to all of the Collateral, wherever located, whether now owned or hereafter acquired. Collateral includes accounts, receivables, chattel paper, commercial tort claims, deposit accounts, equipment, farm products, fixtures, general intangibles, payment intangibles, inventory, Intellectual Property, investment property, letter-of-credit rights, instruments, documents, supporting obligations, Pledged Interests, securities accounts, books and records, cash, Cash Equivalents, real estate, and all other personal property, and proceeds thereof. Excluded Property includes certain voting Equity Interests of Foreign Subsidiaries, certain contract/lease rights, intent-to-use trademark applications, leasehold/low-value fee simple Real Property, motor vehicles, payroll/fiduciary accounts, assets causing material adverse tax/regulatory consequences, Margin Stock, directors' qualifying shares, Immaterial Subsidiary assets/equity, and Foreign Subsidiary assets/equity (with exceptions).
Credit $150,000,000
SECOND AMENDED AND RESTATED LOAN AND SECURITY AGREEMENT
Matures 2022-05-09 · Filed 2018-11-09
Floating · LIBOR | Base Rate (Federal Funds Rate | Prime | BBA LIBOR)
Secured. Each Borrower grants to the Agent, for the ratable benefit of the Secured Parties, a continuing Lien on and security interest in all of its right, title and interest in and to all of the Collateral, wherever located, whether now owned or hereafter acquired, and all additions and accessions thereto and substitutions and replacements therefor and improvements thereon, and all proceeds and products thereof. 'Collateral' includes accounts, receivables, chattel paper, commercial tort claims, deposit accounts, equipment, farm products, fixtures, general intangibles, payment intangibles, inventory, Intellectual Property, investment property, letter-of-credit rights, instruments, documents, supporting obligations, Pledged Interests, securities accounts, books and records, cash, Cash Equivalents, real estate, and all other personal property. Excludes certain voting Equity Interests of Foreign Subsidiaries, certain contract/lease rights, intent-to-use trademark applications, leasehold/low-value fee simple Real Property, motor vehicles, payroll accounts, property with material adverse tax/regulatory consequences, Margin Stock, and directors' qualifying shares.
Credit
Amended and Restated Loan and Security Agreement
Matures · Filed 2018-05-10
Secured; collateral includes 'Eligible Receivables' and other assets subject to 'Liens and security interests heretofore granted'
1 additional agreement on file
Financial covenants
Total Leverage Ratio
≤ 3.50 to 1.00
Funded Indebtedness minus Cash Netting Amount to EBITDA
AMENDED & RESTATED LOAN AND SECURITY AGREEMENT
First Lien Leverage Ratio (Incurrence Test)
≤ 1.25 to 1.00
Funded Indebtedness secured by Collateral on a pari passu basis with Obligations minus Cash Netting Amount to EBITDA
AMENDED & RESTATED LOAN AND SECURITY AGREEMENT
Secured Leverage Ratio (Incurrence Test)
≤ 2.00 to 1.00
Funded Indebtedness secured by Collateral minus Cash Netting Amount to EBITDA
AMENDED & RESTATED LOAN AND SECURITY AGREEMENT
Total Leverage Ratio
≤ 3.00x
Funded Indebtedness / EBITDA
Loan and Security Agreement (as amended)
Total Leverage Ratio
≤ 3.50x
Funded Indebtedness / EBITDA
Loan and Security Agreement
Interest Coverage Ratio
≥ 3.00 to 1.00
EBITDA / Interest Expense
SECOND AMENDED AND RESTATED LOAN AND SECURITY AGRE
Subsidiary Gross Revenue Threshold for Consolidating Financial Statements
exceed $100,000,000 per year
Gross revenues of the Subsidiaries of the Borrower Agent
Amended and Restated Loan and Security Agreement
Investment and Guarantee Threshold for Consolidating Financial Statements
exceeds $5,000,000
Aggregate amount of Investments by the Loan Parties in or to, and guarantees by the Loan Parties of Indebtedness of, Subsidiaries that are not Loan Parties
Amended and Restated Loan and Security Agreement
3 additional covenants on file
Cross-default risk
6 agreements contain cross-default provisions — a covenant breach on one facility may trigger default on others.
Xavier risk radar
Pro
Covenant headroom
Low leverage — no covenants required
Earnings quality
High quality (cash conversion 2.2x)
Risk trend
Risk increasing — Evolving global privacy and data protection laws and restrictions on unique iden
Mgmt narrative
Management tone: Cautiously optimistic
Analyst drift
Consensus Hold — watch for drift
Insider sentiment
Pattern detection — 90 days needed
Signal history
Signal
DateDirectionConf.Agree.ThesisPriceType
Jul 12, 2026 NEUTRAL 5.9/10 100% TTD is caught in a structural deceleration story: revenue growth has sequentially declined from 25% ... $19.53 Sched.
Jul 11, 2026 NEUTRAL 5.7/10 75% TTD screens optically inexpensive on forward earnings and trades far below its 52-week high, but the... $19.53 Sched.
Jun 07, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.9/10 67% TTD is printing new 52-week lows amid a wave of post-earnings downgrades (HSBC to Reduce/$20, Scotia... $19.95 Sched.
May 31, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.0/10 75% TTD trades at ~$21.56, down ~76% from its 52-week high of $91.45, reflecting severe sentiment damage... $21.56 Sched.
May 24, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.6/10 67% TTD screens mixed for the next 5 trading days: valuation is not demanding on forward earnings, but t... $22.38 Sched.
May 17, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.2/10 75% TTD is trading near its 52-week low ($19.74) at $21.15 — technically washed out but with a clear fun... $21.15 Sched.
May 10, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.4/10 100% TTD has a supportive macro backdrop for ad spending and still trades below analyst consensus target,... $23.08 Sched.
May 03, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.8/10 67% TTD has supportive macro backdrop and still trades well below analyst consensus target, but the near... $24.24 Sched.
Apr 12, 2026 BEARISH 6.3/10 50% TTD is trading near its 52-week low of ~$19.74 and has shed over 75% from its all-time high, reflect... $20.09 Sched.
Showing last 9 signals
TTD The Trade Desk Inc.
Signal
FY2026 annual report (10-K filed 2026-02-27)
INCOME STATEMENT
? Revenue
$2,896,284 thousand 18% YoY
? Operating income
$589,321 thousand
? Net income
$443,304 thousand
? Free cash flow
$782,958 thousand
? EPS (diluted)
$0.08
Click any row to expand the plain-English explanation. Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings.
Capital intelligence
Signal
Weighted Average Cost of Capital · Return on Invested Capital · Economic Value Added
ROIC
19.34%
WACC
9.97%
🟢 VALUE CREATOR — EVA Spread: 9.37%
? WACC
9.97%
? Cost of equity
9.97%
? Cost of debt (after-tax)
2.79%
? Capital structure
E: 100.00% / D: 0.00%
? ROIC
19.34%
? EVA
$148M
? NOPAT
$305M
Risk-free rate: 4.25% (10Y Treasury) · Equity risk premium: 5.50% · Sources: total_debt: Gemini 10-K, operating_income: XBRL TTM (4Q sum), interest_expense: XBRL, invested_capital: Equity + Debt - Cash
Xavier consensus signals are intelligence outputs, not investment advice. All signals are generated by a multi-model AI system and reflect public information at time of generation. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future performance. Wall Street analyst consensus sourced from public disclosures, summarized weekly. Financial data sourced from SEC EDGAR and yfinance. Insider transactions sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 4 filings. Updated Jul 12, 2026.