MSJ-100 Index
1,036.65
Signal breadth
4 Bullish 93 Neutral 3 Bearish Avg confidence 6.16 / 10
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SPG
Simon Property Group Inc.
Real Estate · NYSE: SPG · MSJ-100
$221.28
▲ $1.79  (▲0.82%) today
After-hours: $220.00  ▼ 0.58%
Headquarters
Indianapolis, IN
Employees
3,100
Founded
1993
CEO
Mr. Eli M. Simon
Incorporated
Indiana
Fiscal Year End
December
Analyst price target range Free
Avg target $221.63
$221 now
Bear $194 Avg $222 Bull $255
Price history Free
Volume
1.61M
Avg volume
1.89M
Open
$220.96
Day high / low
$221.70 / $219.64
Market cap
$84.1B
About this company
Free
Simon Property Group is a self-managed real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns, develops, and manages premier shopping, dining, entertainment, and mixed-use destinations, including malls, Premium Outlets, and The Mills. The company also holds international property interests and investments in retail operations, e-commerce ventures, and real estate investment and management firms.
Business segments
10-K
Real Estate
Recent News
Loading news...
Earnings call: Q2 2026 2026
Intel
Free
Aug 10, 2026Neutral
David Simon (Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President), Brian McDade (Chief Financial Officer)
Key metrics
No quarterly results have been reported yet for Q2 2026 in the provided results.[5]
Forward guidance
The Q2 2026 earnings call has been announced but has not occurred yet as of the available search results, so no guidance from the call itself is available.[5] Simon said it will release second-quarter 2026 results after market close on August 10, 2026 and host a conference call from 5:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. EDT.[5]
Notable Q&A
No Q&A is available yet because the call has not taken place.[5]
Surprise items
No surprise items are available yet because the quarter has not been reported.[5]
(2026-03-XX) · Q1 2026 (May 10, 2026) · Confident
Fundamentals
Signal
52-week high / low
$229.59 / $159.33
Forward P/E
32.8×
Trailing 15.3×
Dividend
$8.80 / share
Yield 4.01%
Analysts covering
19
Avg target $221.63
Beta
1.33
vs. S&P 500
Short interest
Float shorted
Buy
33%
Hold
62%
Sell
5%
Wall Street consensus — sourced weekly via public disclosures
Analyst coverage data sourced from public filings. Xavier analyst thesis summary available after weekly Perplexity scan completes.
Financial summary — Gemini analysis
Signal
Revenue
$6,364,505 thousand
6.72% YoY
Operating margin
49.9%
Net income
$5,364,120 thousand
Free cash flow
$3,202,205 thousand
Dividend / share
$8.55
Total debt
$28,430,175 thousand
Cash: $823,147 thousand
CapEx guidance
$543 million
Earnings quality: MEDIUM
Recurring revenue:81%
Cash conversion:0.8x
Non-recurring items: Non-cash gain of $2.9 billion related to the remeasurement of previously held 88% noncontrolling equity interest in TRG to fair value due to the TRG Acquisition., Non-cash gain of $21.6 million related to the disposition of interest in one unconsolidated property., Net pre-tax loss of $86.1 million on the disposal, exchange, or revaluation of equity interests, primarily due to restructuring activities within Catalyst and reduction in carrying value of certain equity instruments., Unrealized unfavorable change in fair value of publicly traded equity instruments and derivative instrument, net of $88.7 million.
Source: SEC 10-K filing analyzed by Gemini 2.5 Flash · 2026-02-25
Xavier sector view:
Real Estate
See journal
View Real Estate journal ↗
Xavier's signal
NEUTRAL
Signal
Confidence 6.3 / 10  ·  100% model agreement  ·  Scheduled Jun 07, 2026
SPG is trading within 0.4% of its 52-week high at $210.31, with consensus analyst targets clustering in the $213-$214 range — implying only ~2% upside from current levels. While Q1 2026 fundamentals were genuinely strong (FFO +7.5% YoY, 96% occupancy, 7.1% dividend hike, raised full-year guidance), the positive news is now fully priced in after a multi-month run from the $155 low. The forward P/E of 31.4x is materially above the REIT sector average, and with the macro regime neutral-to-bearish and no near-term catalyst beyond the June 9 ex-dividend date, the risk/reward is balanced at best.
Strongest bull case
Exceptionally strong Q1 2026 operating metrics — 96% occupancy, retailer sales/sqft up 11.8%, FFO guidance raised to $13.10-$13.25/share, and a 7.1% dividend hike — confirm SPG's premium portfolio is compounding well above sector peers, supported by $8.7B liquidity and a freshly extended $5B credit facility.
Strongest bear case
SPG is within striking distance of its 52-week high ($211.23) with consensus price targets at $214.40 — less than 2% upside — while trading at a 31.4x forward P/E that assumes sustained high growth; tourist-market softness (European/Canadian visitor declines at outlets like Woodbury), ongoing interest expense headwinds from higher refinancing rates, and a neutral-to-bearish macro backdrop leave almost no margin of safety at current prices.
What the market may be missing
The June 9 ex-dividend date creates a near-term technical risk: income-oriented buyers may have front-run the $2.25 quarterly dividend, setting up a post-ex-date sell-the-news dynamic that could pressure the stock in the first 1-2 days of the next 5 trading sessions — a short-term headwind not reflected in the static analyst consensus targets.
Model breakdown
Signal
Atlas (Claude) — NEUTRAL
Meridian (GPT-4) — NEUTRAL
Grayline (Grok) — NEUTRAL
Vantage (Gemini) — NEUTRAL
msj100_SPG_20260607T023001Z
Peer comparison
Signal
SPG
current
$221.28 ▲0.8%
EQR
NEUTRAL
$68.69
DLR
NEUTRAL
$180.41
O
NEUTRAL
$63.31
PSA
NEUTRAL
$320.56
Recent SEC filings
Signal
LOG
4 — 2026-07-01
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-07-01
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-07-01
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-07-01
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-07-01
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
CEO scorecard — Eli Simon
Signal summary
Full detail Pro
ES
Eli Simon
Chief Executive Officer, President and Chief Operating Officer · Simon Property Group Inc.
CEO since 2026-03-23
Total compensation
$5,145,504
Pay vs performance
Misaligned
Board assessment
Say-on-pay approval
48%
Shareholder vote
Board independence
11/13 (85%)
Base salary$697,885
Bonus / incentive$1,000,000
Stock awards$3,000,303
Executive appearances
Intel
Free
Investor DayMay 06, 2025
Simon Property Group Q1 2025 Earnings Call Source ↗
Mr. Eli M. Simon (CEO) · Simon Property Group
Eli Simon, in his debut as CEO, highlighted the drivers behind Simon Property Group's $1.76 billion first-quarter revenue. He praised Gen Z shoppers for their significant contribution to the company's performance. Simon emphasized adapting to younger
CEO letter to shareholders
Signal
No shareholder letter on file for SPG
Some companies file their annual report without a separate CEO letter. When available, Xavier extracts strategic themes, tone analysis, and forward-looking statements to help you read between the lines.
Executive compensation
Signal
NameTitleTotal compensation
Eli SimonCEO, President and COO$5,145,504
Brian J. McDadeExecutive Vice President and CFO$4,740,449
Steven E. FivelGeneral Counsel and Secretary$4,222,357
John RulliChief Administrative Officer$4,224,393
Source: DEF 14A proxy statement · 2026-04-01
Governance
Pro
Dual-class shares: Yes
Poison pill: No
Clawback policy: Yes
Stock ownership req.: Yes
Shareholder proposals
Elect 13 directors to our Board of Directors
FOR
Pending
Advisory vote to approve the compensation of our Named Executive Officers
FOR
Pending
Ratify the appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as our independent registered public
FOR
Pending
Debt intelligence
Pro
1 debt instrument · 1 unique covenant
5.81x
Debt / Equity
3.1x
Interest coverage
7.8x
Net Debt / EBITDA
$27.7B
Net debt
71%
Debt / Assets
Interest coverage trend (EBITDA / Interest expense)
4.8x
24-06
4.8x
24-09
4.7x
25-03
4.7x
25-06
4.7x
25-09
4.4x
26-03
Credit facilities & debt instruments
Credit $6,000,000,000
AMENDMENT NO. 1 TO SECOND AMENDED AND RESTATED CREDIT AGREEMENT
Matures 2024-06-30 · Filed 2022-02-24
Floating · SOFR | LIBOR | EURIBOR | TIBOR | SONIA | Prime | Fed Funds | Canadian Prime Rate | AUD Bank Bill Reference Rate | Central Bank Rate
Unsecured
Financial covenants
Sustainability Metric Election Threshold
≤ -1.00% for 2020; ≤ -2.00% for 2021; ≤ -3.00% for 2022; ≤ -6.00% for 2023; ≤ -9.00% for 2024 and thereafter
Percentage change of the Borrower’s combined Scope 1 and Scope 2 greenhouse gas emissions for a given Fiscal Year relative to a Sustainability Metric Baseline
AMENDMENT NO. 1 TO SECOND AMENDED AND RESTATED CRE
Xavier risk radar
Pro
Covenant headroom
High leverage — no covenants on file
Earnings quality
MEDIUM (cash conversion 0.8x)
Risk trend
Risk increasing — Conditions that adversely affect the general retail environment could materially
Mgmt narrative
Management tone: Cautiously optimistic
Analyst drift
Consensus Buy — targets stable
Insider sentiment
Pattern detection — 90 days needed
Signal history
Signal
DateDirectionConf.Agree.ThesisPriceType
Jun 07, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.3/10 100% SPG is trading within 0.4% of its 52-week high at $210.31, with consensus analyst targets clustering... $210.31 Sched.
May 31, 2026 NEUTRAL 5.3/10 100% SPG is trading within 2% of its 52-week high at $204.91, with the stock already reflecting strong 20... $204.91 Sched.
May 24, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.4/10 100% SPG is trading near its 52-week high and only about 4.5% below analyst consensus target, which limit... $204.41 Sched.
May 17, 2026 NEUTRAL 5.7/10 100% SPG delivered a genuinely strong Q1 2026 beat — FFO of $3.17 vs. $2.98 consensus, 96% occupancy, 7.5... $200.02 Sched.
May 10, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.4/10 100% SPG is trading near its 52-week high and only about 3% below analyst consensus target, which limits ... $202.12 Sched.
May 03, 2026 NEUTRAL 5.8/10 100% SPG has supportive macro tailwinds for risk assets and remains a high-quality retail REIT, but the s... $202.44 Sched.
Apr 13, 2026 BULLISH 7.0/10 75% SPG is trading near its 52-week high of $205.12 with meaningful fundamental tailwinds: record 2025 R... $200.57 Sched.
Showing last 7 signals
SPG Simon Property Group Inc.
Signal
FY2026 annual report (10-K filed 2026-02-25)
INCOME STATEMENT
? Revenue
$6,364,505 thousand 6.72% YoY
? Operating income
$3,175,396 thousand
? Net income
$5,364,120 thousand
? Free cash flow
$3,202,205 thousand
? EPS (diluted)
$1.48
? Dividend per share
$8.55
Click any row to expand the plain-English explanation. Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings.
Capital intelligence
Signal
Weighted Average Cost of Capital · Return on Invested Capital · Economic Value Added
ROIC
7.79%
WACC
8.84%
🔴 VALUE DESTROYER — EVA Spread: -1.05%
? WACC
8.84%
? Cost of equity
11.55%
? Cost of debt (after-tax)
0.77%
? Capital structure
E: 74.85% / D: 25.15%
? ROIC
7.79%
? EVA
-$342M
? NOPAT
$2.5B
Risk-free rate: 4.25% (10Y Treasury) · Equity risk premium: 5.50% · Sources: total_debt: XBRL, operating_income: XBRL TTM (4Q sum), interest_expense: XBRL, invested_capital: Equity + Debt - Cash
Xavier consensus signals are intelligence outputs, not investment advice. All signals are generated by a multi-model AI system and reflect public information at time of generation. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future performance. Wall Street analyst consensus sourced from public disclosures, summarized weekly. Financial data sourced from SEC EDGAR and yfinance. Insider transactions sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 4 filings. Updated Jun 07, 2026.