Phillips 66 is an integrated downstream energy provider operating in midstream, chemicals, refining, marketing and specialties, and renewable fuels segments. The company transports crude oil and refined products, manufactures petrochemicals and plastics, refines crude oil, markets refined products and lubricants, and processes renewable feedstocks into fuels.
Business segments
10-K
MidstreamChemicalsRefiningMarketing and SpecialtiesRenewable Fuels
Recent News
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Earnings call: Q1 2026 2026
Intel
Free
May 03, 2026Cautious
● Full transcript on file
Mark Lashier (President & Chief Executive Officer), Kevin Mitchell (Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer), Brian Mandell (Executive Vice President, Marketing & Commercial), Richard Harbison (Executive Vice President, Refining)
Key metrics
Phillips 66 reported Q1 2026 revenue of approximately $32.5 billion, up about 7% year over year but down sequentially from Q4 2025.[1] Net income declined sharply to roughly $0.2 billion versus about $2.9 billion in the prior quarter, reflecting weaker refining margins and turnaround activity.[1] Adjusted earnings per share came in significantly be
Forward guidance
Management reaffirmed its commitment to achieving $1.4 billion in run-rate business transformation benefits by the end of 2026, emphasizing additional cost reductions and efficiency gains in refining and midstream. They guided to continued portfolio high-grading and disciplined capital allocation, with sustaining and growth capex focused on midstre
Notable Q&A
One notable exchange involved Neil Mehta of Goldman Sachs asking about the pace and sustainability of the $1.4 billion business transformation savings and whether further structural cost reductions were possible beyond 2026; management responded that they were on track with roughly half of the targe
Surprise items
Investors were likely surprised by the magnitude of the quarter-over-quarter drop in net income, driven by weaker crack spreads and heavy turnaround activity despite still-solid topline revenue.[1] Another notable item was the reiteration of the sizable $1.4 billion business transformation run-rate
Fundamentals
Signal
52-week high / low
$201.66 / $118.07
Forward P/E
11.2×
Trailing 19.6×
Dividend
$5.08 / share
Yield 2.56%
Analysts covering
18
Avg target $198.44
Beta
0.68
vs. S&P 500
Short interest
2.3%
Float shorted
Buy
63%
Hold
26%
Sell
11%
Wall Street consensus — sourced weekly via public disclosures
Analyst coverage data sourced from public filings. Xavier analyst thesis summary available after weekly Perplexity scan completes.
Financial summary — Gemini analysis
Signal
Revenue
132,376 million USD
-7.52% YoY
Operating margin
1.7%
Net income
4,403 million USD
Free cash flow
2,729 million USD
Dividend / share
4.75 USD
Total debt
19,716 million USD
Cash: 1,116 million USD
CapEx guidance
$2.4 billion for 2026 (excluding equity affiliate share of capital spending)
Earnings quality:MEDIUM
Cash conversion:1.1x
Non-recurring items: Gain of $1.9 billion from partial sale of Germany and Austria Marketing business., Gain of $1 billion from sale of investment in Coop Mineraloel AG., Impairment of $948 million related to equity method investment in WRB., Accrual of $262 million for Propel Fuels litigation.
Confidence 6.0 / 10 · 75% model agreement ·
Scheduled Jun 07, 2026
PSX trades at a modest 18x TTM P/E with a compelling 10.7x forward P/E, reflecting strong Q1 2026 earnings momentum (crack spreads +73% YoY) and an expanding asset base post-WRB acquisition. However, the stock sits within 4% of its 52-week high at $183, just below analyst consensus of $190.84, leaving limited near-term upside; the neutral macro regime, negative earnings growth trend (-57%), and rising balance sheet leverage from ~$3.6B in 2025 acquisitions constrain the risk/reward over a 5-day horizon.
Strongest bull case
Q1 2026 crack spreads surged ~73% YoY, PSX beat EPS estimates by $0.88, and Mizuho recently raised its price target by $42 — refining margin recovery is real and forward earnings power is significantly underpriced at 10.7x forward P/E.
Strongest bear case
PSX is trading within 4% of its 52-week high of $190.61 with no imminent catalyst in the next 5 trading days; the stock has digested the Q1 earnings beat (reported April 29) and margin tailwind is already reflected in the recent run from ~$111 lows — reversion risk is elevated given neutral macro backdrop and $3.6B+ in acquisition-related debt overhang from WRB and EPIC NGL deals.
What the market may be missing
Elliott Management's successful placement of two board nominees in May 2025, followed by further constructive board additions in March 2026, suggests a governance-driven re-rating catalyst is maturing — the market may be underappreciating the pace of portfolio rationalization (Germany/Austria retail divestiture, EPIC NGL integration) and cost-per-barrel reduction trajectory targeting $5.50/bbl by 2027, which could drive multiple expansion if execution continues.
Dr. Mark E. Lashier (CEO) · Houston Business Journal
Mark Lashier appeared as a guest on the premiere episode of the HBJ on the Record podcast. Specific topics discussed in the episode are not detailed in available previews. The podcast features executives sharing insights on business and leadership.
Mark Lashier discussed Phillips 66's strategy for navigating changing energy markets, emphasizing operational excellence, infrastructure investments, and portfolio diversity. He highlighted the company's focus on meeting global energy needs amid geop
“We are running at strong levels.”
CEO letter to shareholders
Signal
No shareholder letter on file for PSX
Some companies file their annual report without a separate CEO letter.
When available, Xavier extracts strategic themes, tone analysis, and
forward-looking statements to help you read between the lines.
Executive compensation
Signal
Name
Title
Total compensation
Kevin Mitchell
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
9,062,904 USD
Brian Mandell
Executive Vice President, Marketing & Commercial
6,389,504 USD
Richard Harbison
Executive Vice President, Refining
7,538,932 USD
Vanessa A. Sutherland
Executive Vice President, Government Affairs, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary
6,775,803 USD
Source: DEF 14A proxy statement · 2026-04-02
Governance
Pro
Dual-class shares:No
Poison pill:No
Clawback policy:Yes
Stock ownership req.:Yes
Shareholder proposals
Election of four Class II Directors
FOR
Pending
Advisory approval of named executive officer compensation
FOR
Pending
Ratification of the appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as independent registered p
Fourth Amendment to Receivables Purchase and Financing Agreement
Matures · Filed 2026-03-18
Secured by receivables (implied by 'Receivables Purchase and Financing Agreement' and definitions of 'Collections' and 'Related Security')
Term Loan$2,250,000,000
$2.25 BILLION TERM LOAN CREDIT AGREEMENT
Matures 2027-03-17 · Filed 2026-03-18
Floating · SOFR
unsecured
Credit$1,250,000,000
Third Amendment to Receivables Purchase and Financing Agreement
Matures 2026-09-28 · Filed 2025-09-30
Floating · SOFR
Secured by receivables (Sold Receivables, Pool Receivables, Unsold Receivables) and Supporting Assets.
Credit$1,000,000,000
Receivables Purchase and Financing Agreement
Matures 2025-09-29 · Filed 2025-04-01
Floating · SOFR
Secured by Pool Receivables and Related Security.
Credit$500,000,000
RECEIVABLES PURCHASE AND FINANCING AGREEMENT
Matures 2025-10-29 · Filed 2024-10-01
Floating · SOFR | Fed Funds | Prime
Secured. Collateral includes: (i) all 'Sold Assets' (Sold Receivables, Related Security, and proceeds thereof), and (ii) all 'SPE Collateral' (Unsold Receivables, Related Security, Lock-Boxes, Collection Accounts, Cash Dominion Administration Accounts, rights under the Transfer Agreement, and all other personal and fixture property/assets of the SPE).
Revolver$5,000,000,000
CREDIT AGREEMENT
Matures 2029-02-28 · Filed 2024-02-28
Floating · SOFR | Fed Funds | Prime
Unsecured. The facility is senior unsecured. Collateral is only mentioned for Cash Collateralization of L/C Obligations under specific circumstances (e.g., Event of Default, certain mandatory prepayments).
11 additional agreements on file
Financial covenants
Maximum Secured Indebtedness and Hedging Obligations
≤ 15% of Consolidated Net Tangible Assets
Aggregate outstanding amount of Indebtedness and Hedging Obligations secured by Liens allowed under Section 6.1(t)
$2.25 BILLION TERM LOAN CREDIT AGREEMENT
Maximum Consolidated Net Debt to Total Capitalization Ratio
≤ 65%
Consolidated Net Debt / Total Capitalization
$2.25 BILLION TERM LOAN CREDIT AGREEMENT
Maximum Aggregate Outstanding Securitization Transactions
≤ $2,000,000,000
Aggregate outstanding amount of Securitization Transactions
$2.25 BILLION TERM LOAN CREDIT AGREEMENT
Maximum Average Default Ratio
≤ 2.0%
Average of Default Ratios for any three consecutive Fiscal Months
Third Amendment to Receivables Purchase and Financ
Maximum Average Delinquency Ratio
≤ 8.5%
Average of Delinquency Ratios for any three consecutive Fiscal Months
Third Amendment to Receivables Purchase and Financ
Maximum Days' Sales Outstanding
≤ 30 days
Days' Sales Outstanding
Third Amendment to Receivables Purchase and Financ
Maximum Average Dilution Ratio
≤ 5.0%
Average of Dilution Ratios for any three consecutive Fiscal Months
Third Amendment to Receivables Purchase and Financ
Capital Coverage Amount
No Capital Coverage Amount Deficit
Capital Coverage Amount
Third Amendment to Receivables Purchase and Financ
21 additional covenants on file
CUSIP identifiers (5 on file)
71839DAG471839YAE371839YAD571839YAM571839YAN3
Cross-default risk
10 agreements contain cross-default provisions — a covenant breach on one facility may trigger default on others.
Xavier risk radar
Pro
Covenant headroom
Low leverage — no covenants required
Earnings quality
MEDIUM (cash conversion 1.1x)
Risk trend
Risk increasing — Volatility in commodity prices and refining/petrochemical margins due to market
Mgmt narrative
Management tone: Cautiously optimistic
Analyst drift
Consensus Buy — targets stable
Insider sentiment
Pattern detection — 90 days needed
Signal history
Signal
Date
Direction
Conf.
Agree.
Thesis
Price
Type
Jun 07, 2026
NEUTRAL
6.0/10
75%
PSX trades at a modest 18x TTM P/E with a compelling 10.7x forward P/E, reflecting strong Q1 2026 ea...
$183.08
Sched.
May 31, 2026
NEUTRAL
5.8/10
100%
PSX has already priced in the Q1 2026 earnings beat, surging ~6.8% post-results on April 29; at $175...
$175.88
Sched.
May 24, 2026
NEUTRAL
5.6/10
100%
PSX trades at a compelling forward P/E of ~10.9x with active portfolio transformation (EPIC NGL acqu...
$177.69
Sched.
May 17, 2026
NEUTRAL
6.2/10
100%
PSX trades at ~$176, just 5.7% below its 52-week high of $190.61, offering minimal margin of safety ...
$176.20
Sched.
May 10, 2026
NEUTRAL
6.4/10
50%
PSX just delivered a Q1 2026 earnings beat with realized refining margins surging to ~$10.11/bbl fro...
$171.56
Sched.
May 03, 2026
NEUTRAL
6.6/10
75%
PSX just reported Q1 2026 earnings of $0.49/share (adjusted), massively beating depressed consensus ...
$176.19
Sched.
May 01, 2026
BULLISH
7.0/10
50%
PSX just reported Q1 2026 earnings that massively beat a deeply depressed consensus (EPS $0.49 vs. e...
$174.09
Sched.
Apr 12, 2026
BULLISH
6.7/10
50%
PSX trades at a compelling forward P/E of ~10.7x with a unanimous analyst buy consensus and a price ...
$159.25
Sched.
Showing last 8 signals
PSXPhillips 66
Signal
FY2026 annual report (10-K filed 2026-02-20)
INCOME STATEMENT
?Revenue
132,376 million USD-7.52% YoY
Total sales from selling oil, gas, and petrochemicals. Down 7.52% from last year. Management has guided capital spending of $2.4 billion for 2026 (excluding equity affiliate share of capital spending).
?Operating income
2,275 million USD
What remains after subtracting all operating costs — salaries, materials, rent, R&D — from revenue. This is the profit from actually running the business, before interest and taxes. Operating margin is 1.7%, meaning 2 cents of every dollar of revenue becomes operating profit.
?Net income
4,403 million USD
The bottom line — what the company actually earned after all expenses, interest, and taxes. This is the number that gets divided by shares outstanding to calculate earnings per share (EPS), which directly affects the stock price. Net margin is 0.6%. Note: results include non-recurring items (gain of $1.9 billion from partial sale of germany and austria marketing business., gain of $1 billion from sale of investment in coop mineraloel ag.) that may not repeat.
?Free cash flow
2,729 million USD
Operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. This is the money available for dividends, share buybacks, debt repayment, or acquisitions. Free cash flow is what many professional investors consider the truest measure of financial health.
?EPS (diluted)
$0.51
Earnings per share — net income divided by total shares outstanding (including stock options and convertible bonds that could become shares). This is the single number most investors watch because it directly connects company profits to your ownership stake.
?Dividend per share
4.75 USD
Cash paid to shareholders each year for every share they own. Energy companies typically pay steady dividends funded by commodity cash flows.
BALANCE SHEET
?Total assets
$84.1B
Everything the company owns — cash, factories, equipment, patents, inventory, investments. Includes oil reserves, refineries, pipelines, and chemical plants.
?Cash & equivalents
1,116 million USD
Money available right now — bank accounts, money market funds, short-term government bonds. This is the company's financial cushion. More cash means more flexibility to invest, acquire, or survive a downturn without borrowing.
?Total debt
19,716 million USD
All money the company owes — bonds, bank loans, credit facilities. Compare this to cash to understand the net debt position. The company holds 1,116 million USD in cash against this debt.
?Shares outstanding
400,744,022 shares
Total number of shares that exist — owned by all investors, insiders, and institutions combined. When the company reports EPS, this is the denominator. Share buybacks reduce this number, which increases EPS even without earnings growth.
CASH FLOW
?Operating cash flow
-$2.3B
Actual cash generated from running the business — not accounting profits, real money coming in the door. This is more trustworthy than net income because it's harder to manipulate. A company can report profits but still run out of cash.
?Interest expense
$286M
The cost of borrowing money — interest payments on bonds, loans, and credit facilities. Higher interest expense means more of the company's earnings go to lenders instead of shareholders.
?Depreciation & amortization
$558M
A non-cash expense that spreads the cost of oil wells, refineries, and pipeline infrastructure over their useful life. This reduces reported income but no cash actually leaves the company — that's why it gets added back to calculate EBITDA and operating cash flow.
EARNINGS QUALITY
?Accrual quality
MEDIUM
Measures how well reported earnings match actual cash generation. HIGH means earnings are backed by real cash. LOW means the company may be using accounting techniques to inflate reported numbers. Professional investors check this before trusting EPS.
?Cash conversion
1.1x
Operating cash flow divided by net income. Above 1.0x means the company generates more cash than it reports in profits — a sign of high-quality earnings. At 1.1x, the company is converting reported profits to cash efficiently.
?Non-recurring items
7 identified
One-time items that affect the bottom line but won't repeat: gain of $1.9 billion from partial sale of germany and austria marketing business., gain of $1 billion from sale of investment in coop mineraloel ag., impairment of $948 million related to equity method investment in wrb., accrual of $262 million for propel fuels litigation.. When evaluating the company's true earning power, investors strip these out to see what the business earns on a normal basis.
?Management tone
Cautious Optimistic
How management sounds in their SEC filings — are they confident, cautious, or defensive? This is analyzed from the actual language used in the 10-K annual report. A shift in tone from prior years can signal changing conditions before the numbers reflect it.
?Top risk factor
Increasing
Volatility in commodity prices and refining/petrochemical margins due to market conditions beyond control, directly impacting earnings and cash flows. Risk trend: increasing. This is the single biggest threat to the company's future earnings as identified in their SEC filing.
Click any row to expand the plain-English explanation. Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings.
Capital intelligence
Signal
Weighted Average Cost of Capital · Return on Invested Capital · Economic Value Added
ROIC
4.17%
WACC
6.65%
🔴 VALUE DESTROYER — EVA Spread: -2.48%
?WACC
6.65%
Weighted Average Cost of Capital — the minimum return Phillips 66 must earn on its investments to satisfy both debt holders and shareholders. Computed from a 80.38% equity / 19.62% debt capital structure. If the company earns less than 6.65% on its invested capital, it is destroying shareholder value.
?Cost of equity
8.00%
The return shareholders demand for holding PSX stock instead of a risk-free Treasury bond. Computed using the Capital Asset Pricing Model: Risk-Free Rate (4.25%) + Beta (0.68) × Equity Risk Premium (5.50%). A beta of 0.68 means PSX is less volatile than the overall market.
?Cost of debt (after-tax)
1.15%
What Phillips 66 effectively pays on its borrowed money after the tax deduction on interest. Interest is tax-deductible, so the true cost is lower than the stated rate. Effective tax rate used: 21.00%.
?Capital structure
E: 80.38% / D: 19.62%
How Phillips 66 finances its operations — the split between equity (stock market value: $80.8B) and debt (total borrowings: $19.7B). More debt means more leverage — higher potential returns but higher risk.
?ROIC
4.17%
Return on Invested Capital — how efficiently Phillips 66 turns its total invested capital into after-tax operating profit. NOPAT ($1.8B) ÷ Invested Capital ($43.1B). This is below WACC, meaning the company is not earning enough to cover its cost of capital.
?EVA
-$1.1B
Economic Value Added — the dollar amount of value Phillips 66 created (or destroyed) above its cost of capital. NOPAT ($1.8B) minus the capital charge (Invested Capital × WACC = $2.9B). Negative EVA means the company would create more value by returning capital to shareholders.
?NOPAT
$1.8B
Net Operating Profit After Tax — operating income adjusted for taxes, ignoring how the company is financed. Operating Income ($2.3B) × (1 - Tax Rate 21.00%). This isolates the company's core business profitability from its financing decisions.
Xavier consensus signals are intelligence outputs, not investment advice. All signals are generated by a multi-model AI system and reflect public information at time of generation. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future performance. Wall Street analyst consensus sourced from public disclosures, summarized weekly. Financial data sourced from SEC EDGAR and yfinance. Insider transactions sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 4 filings. Updated Jun 07, 2026.