The Progressive Corporation is an insurance holding company primarily operating in the property-casualty insurance industry. It offers personal and commercial auto insurance, personal residential property insurance, and coverage for recreational vehicles. Additionally, the company provides business general liability, commercial property, and workers' compensation insurance.
Business segments
10-K
Personal LinesCommercial LinesOther Indemnity
Recent News
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Earnings call: Q2 2026 2026
Intel
Free
Jul 13, 2026Neutral
Not available from provided search results (Unknown)
Key metrics
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Forward guidance
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Notable Q&A
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Surprise items
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PGR is a high-quality compounder with exceptional underwriting discipline — May 2026 combined ratio of 82.1, 36% net income growth, and sustained market share gains are genuinely impressive. However, the stock trades at $230.72 against a median analyst price target of ~$222.50 and a consensus target of $233, leaving virtually no margin of safety, and the June results release on July 15 creates binary event risk within the 5-day window that the market is already positioned for. Forward P/E of ~14x reflects normalized earnings expectations that may already price in peak cycle margins.
Strongest bull case
May 2026 results were exceptional — combined ratio of 82.1 (4.8-point improvement YoY), net income up 36% to $1.445B, policies in force up 8%, and Progressive captured ~86% of top-10 carriers' combined premium growth in 2025, demonstrating durable competitive superiority that justifies a premium over P&C peers.
Strongest bear case
June 2026 monthly results are due July 15 — a hard, known binary catalyst within the 5-day window. April's combined ratio deteriorated 5.3 points to 90.2 on elevated catastrophe losses, showing the model is not immune to weather volatility. If June reflects similar cat-loss pressure from summer storm activity, a miss against the now-elevated expectations baked into a stock trading near its analyst consensus target ($233) could trigger a sharp de-rating.
What the market may be missing
The consensus is anchored on trailing TTM P/E of ~11.7x as 'cheap,' but this reflects historically anomalous industry-wide underwriting margins that management itself flagged as unprecedented. Forward P/E of ~14x is a more honest read, and as competition intensifies — management noted rivals are aggressively growing into these fat margins — pricing power erosion could compress the combined ratio advantage faster than the Street models. Additionally, multiple senior leadership transitions (CFO effective July 4, Personal Lines President retiring Jan 2027) create unquantified execution risk at a moment when competitive dynamics are most demanding.
President and Chief Executive Officer · The Progressive Corporation
CEO since 2016
Total compensation
$17,705,924 ▲ 8.1% YoY
Prior year: $16,377,514
Pay vs performance
Aligned
Board assessment
Say-on-pay approval
94%
Shareholder vote
Board independence
10/11 (91%)
Diversity: 45% (5 women)
Base salary$1,094,231
Bonus / incentive$5,443,799
Stock awards$11,000,278
CEO letter to shareholders
Signal
No shareholder letter on file for PGR
Some companies file their annual report without a separate CEO letter.
When available, Xavier extracts strategic themes, tone analysis, and
forward-looking statements to help you read between the lines.
Executive compensation
Signal
Name
Title
Total compensation
Susan Patricia Griffith
President and Chief Executive Officer
$17,705,924
John P. Sauerland
Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
$6,183,317
Patrick K. Callahan
Personal Lines President
$5,417,498
Karen B. Bailo
Commercial Lines President
$4,040,569
John Murphy
Claims President
$3,462,301
Source: DEF 14A proxy statement · 2026-03-23
Governance
Pro
Dual-class shares:No
Poison pill:No
Clawback policy:Yes
Stock ownership req.:Yes
Shareholder proposals
Elect 11 nominees as directors
FOR
Pending
Advisory vote to approve executive compensation program
FOR
94%
Ratify the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as independent registered p
Amended and Restated Discretionary Line of Credit Note (Daily SOFR)
Matures · Filed 2023-05-02
Floating · SOFR
unsecured
Cross-default risk
1 agreement contain cross-default provisions — a covenant breach on one facility may trigger default on others.
Xavier risk radar
Pro
Covenant headroom
Low leverage — no covenants required
Earnings quality
MEDIUM (cash conversion 0.9x)
Risk trend
Risk increasing — Insurance operating results will continue to be materially adversely affected by
Mgmt narrative
Management tone: Cautiously optimistic
Analyst drift
Consensus Hold — watch for drift
Insider sentiment
Pattern detection — 90 days needed
Signal history
Signal
Date
Direction
Conf.
Agree.
Thesis
Price
Type
Jul 12, 2026
NEUTRAL
5.8/10
100%
PGR is a high-quality compounder with exceptional underwriting discipline — May 2026 combined ratio ...
$230.72
Sched.
Jul 11, 2026
NEUTRAL
6.3/10
75%
PGR looks fundamentally reasonable on headline valuation with a low trailing P/E and defensive beta,...
$230.72
Sched.
Jun 07, 2026
NEUTRAL
6.0/10
100%
PGR trades at ~$204, roughly 28% below its 52-week high of ~$284 and meaningfully below Morningstar'...
$204.02
Sched.
May 31, 2026
NEUTRAL
6.2/10
75%
PGR is trading at its 52-week low (~$190, just above the $189.20 floor) after declining ~34% from it...
$190.40
Sched.
May 24, 2026
NEUTRAL
6.1/10
75%
PGR is operationally excellent — strong underwriting margins (~13.6% in Q1 2026), growing policies i...
$199.51
Sched.
May 17, 2026
NEUTRAL
6.3/10
75%
PGR is trading ~31% below its 52-week high and at a compelling ~10x TTM P/E, with genuinely strong 2...
$199.73
Sched.
May 10, 2026
NEUTRAL
7.0/10
67%
PGR screens as statistically cheap on trailing earnings and sits well below analyst target, but the ...
$194.00
Sched.
May 03, 2026
BULLISH
7.2/10
50%
PGR is trading at ~10x TTM P/E — roughly 56% below its 10-year historical average of ~25x — while si...
$199.31
Sched.
Apr 17, 2026
NEUTRAL
6.1/10
75%
PGR reported Q1 2026 results with a slightly mixed outcome: combined ratio beat at 86.4% vs. 88% exp...
$204.21
Event
Apr 17, 2026
NEUTRAL
6.2/10
50%
PGR's Q1 2026 earnings were a mixed bag: the combined ratio beat at 86.4% vs. the 88% estimate (a 16...
$203.47
Event
Apr 12, 2026
NEUTRAL
5.5/10
75%
PGR is trading near its 52-week low of $192.02 despite posting a record 2025 — $11.3B net income, 87...
$194.13
Sched.
Showing last 11 signals
PGRThe Progressive Corporation
Signal
FY2026 annual report (10-K filed 2026-03-02)
INCOME STATEMENT
?Revenue
$81,661 million15.34% YoY
Total revenue from interest income, trading, fees, commissions, and investment management. Up 15.34% from last year.
?Operating income
$12,602 million
What remains after subtracting all operating costs — salaries, materials, rent, R&D — from revenue. This is the profit from actually running the business, before interest and taxes. Operating margin is 15.4%, meaning 15 cents of every dollar of revenue becomes operating profit.
?Net income
$11,308 million
The bottom line — what the company actually earned after all expenses, interest, and taxes. This is the number that gets divided by shares outstanding to calculate earnings per share (EPS), which directly affects the stock price. Net margin is 12.7%.
?Free cash flow
$4.3B
Operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. This is the money available for dividends, share buybacks, debt repayment, or acquisitions. Free cash flow is what many professional investors consider the truest measure of financial health.
?EPS (diluted)
$4.80
Earnings per share — net income divided by total shares outstanding (including stock options and convertible bonds that could become shares). This is the single number most investors watch because it directly connects company profits to your ownership stake.
?Dividend per share
$4.90
Cash paid to shareholders each year for every share they own. Bank dividends are regulated — the Fed must approve capital returns, making them a signal of financial health.
BALANCE SHEET
?Total assets
$122.2B
Everything the company owns — cash, factories, equipment, patents, inventory, investments. Includes loans outstanding, trading positions, client deposits, and investment portfolios.
?Cash & equivalents
$10,005 million
Money available right now — bank accounts, money market funds, short-term government bonds. This is the company's financial cushion. More cash means more flexibility to invest, acquire, or survive a downturn without borrowing.
?Total debt
$6,897 million
All money the company owes — bonds, bank loans, credit facilities. Compare this to cash to understand the net debt position. The company holds $10,005 million in cash against this debt.
?Shares outstanding
585,906,353
Total number of shares that exist — owned by all investors, insiders, and institutions combined. When the company reports EPS, this is the denominator. Share buybacks reduce this number, which increases EPS even without earnings growth.
CASH FLOW
?Operating cash flow
$4.4B
Actual cash generated from running the business — not accounting profits, real money coming in the door. This is more trustworthy than net income because it's harder to manipulate. A company can report profits but still run out of cash.
?Capital expenditure
$63M
Money spent on long-term assets — technology platforms, branch networks, and trading infrastructure. This is the cost of maintaining and growing the business.
?Free cash flow
$4.3B
Operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. This is the money available for dividends, share buybacks, debt repayment, or acquisitions. Free cash flow is what many professional investors consider the truest measure of a company's financial health.
?Interest expense
$70M
The cost of borrowing money — interest payments on bonds, loans, and credit facilities. Higher interest expense means more of the company's earnings go to lenders instead of shareholders.
?Interest coverage
52.0x
EBITDA divided by interest expense — how many times over the company can pay its interest bill from earnings. At 52.0x, coverage is very comfortable. Lenders typically want to see at least 3-4x.
?Depreciation & amortization
$75M
A non-cash expense that spreads the cost of banking technology systems and branch facilities over their useful life. This reduces reported income but no cash actually leaves the company — that's why it gets added back to calculate EBITDA and operating cash flow.
EARNINGS QUALITY
?Accrual quality
MEDIUM
Measures how well reported earnings match actual cash generation. HIGH means earnings are backed by real cash. LOW means the company may be using accounting techniques to inflate reported numbers. Professional investors check this before trusting EPS.
?Recurring revenue
99%
99% of revenue comes from repeat sources — ongoing contracts, subscriptions, or regular customer purchasing patterns rather than one-time sales. Higher recurring revenue means more predictable future earnings.
?Cash conversion
0.9x
Operating cash flow divided by net income. Above 1.0x means the company generates more cash than it reports in profits — a sign of high-quality earnings. At 0.9x, the company is generating less cash than reported profits — investigate why.
?Management tone
Cautious Optimistic
How management sounds in their SEC filings — are they confident, cautious, or defensive? This is analyzed from the actual language used in the 10-K annual report. A shift in tone from prior years can signal changing conditions before the numbers reflect it.
?Top risk factor
Increasing
Insurance operating results will continue to be materially adversely affected by severe weather and catastrophe events, which may be exacerbated by climate change and inaccurate risk pricing/reserving. Risk trend: increasing. This is the single biggest threat to the company's future earnings as identified in their SEC filing.
Click any row to expand the plain-English explanation. Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings.
Capital intelligence
Signal
Weighted Average Cost of Capital · Return on Invested Capital · Economic Value Added
ROIC
29.66%
WACC
5.36%
🟢 VALUE CREATOR — EVA Spread: 24.30%
?WACC
5.36%
Weighted Average Cost of Capital — the minimum return The Progressive Corporation must earn on its investments to satisfy both debt holders and shareholders. Computed from a 95.03% equity / 4.97% debt capital structure. If the company earns less than 5.36% on its invested capital, it is destroying shareholder value.
?Cost of equity
5.60%
The return shareholders demand for holding PGR stock instead of a risk-free Treasury bond. Computed using the Capital Asset Pricing Model: Risk-Free Rate (4.25%) + Beta (0.25) × Equity Risk Premium (5.50%). A beta of 0.25 means PGR is less volatile than the overall market.
?Cost of debt (after-tax)
0.80%
What The Progressive Corporation effectively pays on its borrowed money after the tax deduction on interest. Interest is tax-deductible, so the true cost is lower than the stated rate. Effective tax rate used: 20.98%.
?Capital structure
E: 95.03% / D: 4.97%
How The Progressive Corporation finances its operations — the split between equity (stock market value: $131.9B) and debt (total borrowings: $6.9B). More debt means more leverage — higher potential returns but higher risk.
?ROIC
29.66%
Return on Invested Capital — how efficiently The Progressive Corporation turns its total invested capital into after-tax operating profit. NOPAT ($11.5B) ÷ Invested Capital ($38.8B). This exceeds WACC, meaning the company creates value for shareholders.
?EVA
$9.4B
Economic Value Added — the dollar amount of value The Progressive Corporation created (or destroyed) above its cost of capital. NOPAT ($11.5B) minus the capital charge (Invested Capital × WACC = $2.1B). Positive EVA means every dollar of capital is earning more than it costs.
?NOPAT
$11.5B
Net Operating Profit After Tax — operating income adjusted for taxes, ignoring how the company is financed. Operating Income ($14.6B) × (1 - Tax Rate 20.98%). This isolates the company's core business profitability from its financing decisions.
Xavier consensus signals are intelligence outputs, not investment advice. All signals are generated by a multi-model AI system and reflect public information at time of generation. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future performance. Wall Street analyst consensus sourced from public disclosures, summarized weekly. Financial data sourced from SEC EDGAR and yfinance. Insider transactions sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 4 filings. Updated Jul 12, 2026.