MSJ-100 Index
1,036.65
Signal breadth
4 Bullish 93 Neutral 3 Bearish Avg confidence 6.16 / 10
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OXY
Occidental Petroleum Corporation
Energy · NYSE: OXY · MSJ-100
$54.57
▼ $0.24  (▼0.44%) today
After-hours: $54.21  ▼ 0.66%
Headquarters
Houston, TX
Employees
10,412
Founded
1920
CEO
Mr. Richard A. Jackson
Incorporated
Delaware
Fiscal Year End
December
Analyst price target range Free
Avg target $65.04
$55 now
Bear $55 Avg $65 Bull $75
Price history Free
Volume
11.12M
Avg volume
11.29M
Open
$55.00
Day high / low
$55.49 / $53.81
Market cap
$54.3B
About this company
Free
Occidental Petroleum Corporation is an international energy company focused on oil and gas exploration and production in the U.S., Middle East, and North Africa. It also operates a midstream and marketing segment and is actively developing low-carbon technologies like direct air capture and carbon sequestration.
Business segments
10-K
Oil and Gas Midstream and Marketing
Recent News
Loading news...
Earnings call: Q1 2026 2026
Intel
Free
May 06, 2026Confident
● Full transcript on file
Vicki Hollub (President and Chief Executive Officer), Sunil Mathew (Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer), Richard Jackson (President, U.S. Onshore Resources and Carbon Management), Ken Dillon (President, International Oil and Gas Operations)
Key metrics
For Q1 2026, Occidental reported earnings per share of approximately $1.06, exceeding consensus expectations of around $0.60, with revenue near $5.1 billion, down modestly year-over-year and slightly below analyst forecasts.[1][3] The company highlighted a net margin near 20% and return on equity in the high single digits, alongside continued balan
Forward guidance
Management guided to maintaining capital spending within previously communicated ranges, with a focus on disciplined investment in core oil and gas assets and low-carbon ventures. They indicated expected production to remain broadly flat to slightly higher versus prior quarters, while reiterating a commitment to returning capital to shareholders th
Notable Q&A
One notable Q&A exchange involved an analyst asking about the pace and scale of future carbon capture and sequestration investments; management responded that project sanctioning will be tied closely to contracted volumes and regulatory clarity, emphasizing capital discipline and risk-sharing with p
Surprise items
The magnitude of the EPS beat versus consensus, despite softer revenue, was an upside surprise and underscored strong operating leverage and cost discipline.[1] Management also emphasized continued progress on low-carbon initiatives, which, combined with better-than-expected profitability, was a pos
Fundamentals
Signal
52-week high / low
$67.45 / $38.80
Forward P/E
14.1×
Trailing 73.7×
Dividend
$1.04 / share
Yield 1.90%
Analysts covering
23
Avg target $65.04
Beta
0.15
vs. S&P 500
Short interest
0.0%
Float shorted
Buy
38%
Hold
58%
Sell
4%
Wall Street consensus — sourced weekly via public disclosures
Analyst coverage data sourced from public filings. Xavier analyst thesis summary available after weekly Perplexity scan completes.
Financial summary — Gemini analysis
Signal
Revenue
$21,593 million
-1.94% YoY
Operating margin
16.9%
Net income
$2,369 million
Free cash flow
$4,246 million
Dividend / share
$0.96
Total debt
$15 billion
Cash: $1,968 million
CapEx guidance
$5.5 billion and $5.9 billion
Earnings quality: HIGH
Cash conversion:4.1x
Non-recurring items: Gain on pro-rata ownership reduction in WES ($301 million), Midstream and marketing segment asset impairments and other charges ($487 million), Oil and gas segment legal reserves and other adjustments ($105 million)
Source: SEC 10-K filing analyzed by Gemini 2.5 Flash · 2026-02-18
Xavier sector view:
Energy
See journal
View Energy journal ↗
Xavier's signal
NEUTRAL
Signal
Confidence 6.1 / 10  ·  75% model agreement  ·  Scheduled Jul 12, 2026
OXY is experiencing a confluence of near-term tailwinds: a fresh Evercore ISI upgrade to Outperform with a $65 price target, a geopolitically-driven crude oil spike (Brent ~$76, WTI ~$72) from renewed US-Iran hostilities disrupting Strait of Hormuz traffic, and a Q1 2026 earnings beat of 80% on adjusted EPS with $7.1B in principal debt repaid. The stock sits 22% below its 52-week high with a forward P/E of ~13.9x — cheap on a normalized earnings basis — and Q2 results (Aug 5) set up as a catalyst if realized prices held up during the elevated Q2 oil price environment. However, conviction is capped by the binary geopolitical risk in oil: if US-Iran talks resume and Hormuz fully normalizes, the risk premium in crude unwinds rapidly, and OXY's unhedged book takes the full hit.
Strongest bull case
Sustained Strait of Hormuz disruption keeps a meaningful risk premium in crude ($72-76 WTI/Brent range), directly benefiting OXY as the highest oil-price-beta large-cap US E&P; Evercore upgrade to $65 adds institutional momentum, and the deleveraging story (OxyChem sold to Berkshire for $9.7B) meaningfully de-risks the balance sheet heading into a potential share buyback inflection in 2H28.
Strongest bear case
OXY carries zero hedges on its oil production — management has explicitly confirmed this — meaning if the US-Iran ceasefire is restored and Hormuz traffic normalizes fully, the crude risk premium collapses back toward EIA's $70/bbl Q3 forecast or JPMorgan's $60 full-year Brent average, wiping out the entire geopolitical bid that drove the stock's recent 10%+ bounce from lows in less than 5 trading days.
What the market may be missing
The EIA's July STEO (completed July 1, BEFORE Trump declared the ceasefire 'over') already projected Brent falling to $70 in Q4 2026 and $65 in 2027 on inventory accumulation — the market is treating the current $76 Brent as a new floor, but it may instead be a geopolitical spike inside a structurally bearish supply backdrop where OPEC+ is still adding barrels and global demand was revised DOWN by 1.2 mb/d for 2026. A ceasefire resumption could mean a swift $10+/bbl crude reversal, taking OXY back toward $46-48.
Model breakdown
Signal
Atlas (Claude) — BULLISH
Meridian (GPT-4) — NEUTRAL
Grayline (Grok) — NEUTRAL
Vantage (Gemini) — NEUTRAL
msj100_OXY_20260712T003715Z
Peer comparison
Signal
OXY
current
$54.57 ▼0.4%
BKR
NEUTRAL
$57.56
HAL
NEUTRAL
$34.39
MPC
NEUTRAL
$283.74
EOG
NEUTRAL
$134.10
Recent SEC filings
Signal
P2 AUTO
8-K — 2026-07-10
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
P2 COND
4 — 2026-06-24
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-06-03
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-06-03
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-05-06
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
CEO scorecard — Vicki Hollub
Signal summary
Full detail Pro
VH
Vicki Hollub
President and Chief Executive Officer · Occidental Petroleum Corporation
CEO since 2016
Total compensation
$18,055,969 ▼ 2.5% YoY
Prior year: $18,535,061
Pay vs performance
Aligned
Board assessment
Say-on-pay approval
94%
Shareholder vote
Board independence
9/10 (90%)
Diversity: 50% (3 women)
Base salary$1,596,781
Bonus / incentive$3,200,000
Stock awards$12,298,207
Executive appearances
Intel
Free
Investor DayMay 06, 2026
Q1 2026 Earnings Call Source ↗
Ms. Vicki A. Hollub (CEO) · Occidental Petroleum Corporation
During the first-quarter earnings call, Vicki Hollub announced her retirement effective June 1, 2026, after over 40 years with the company. She reflected on her tenure and introduced COO Richard Jackson as her successor. The discussion included finan
Investor DayMay 06, 2026
Q1 2026 Earnings Call Source ↗
Ms. Vicki A. Hollub (CEO) · Occidental Petroleum Corporation
Vicki Hollub announced her retirement as CEO on June 1, 2026, paving the way for COO Richard Jackson to take over. The call addressed implications for Occidental Petroleum's strategy, operations, and shareholder value post-transition. Key themes incl
InterviewApr 15, 2026
The Claman Countdown Source ↗
Ms. Vicki A. Hollub (CEO) · Fox Business
Vicki Hollub discussed Occidental Petroleum's operations in the Middle East and strategic shifts in production. She highlighted bringing production back to the United States due to geopolitical tensions. The interview covered the company's transforma
InterviewApr 15, 2026
The Claman Countdown Source ↗
Ms. Vicki A. Hollub (CEO) · Fox Business
Occidental Petroleum CEO Vicki Hollub detailed the company's successful transformation and ongoing Middle East operations. Emphasis was placed on adapting to global energy dynamics and operational efficiencies. Forward-looking statements included res
“"We've been able to transform our company"”
CEO letter to shareholders
Signal
Full letter Pro
Vicki Hollub 2025 Annual Report CONFIDENT

2025 was a transformational year for Oxy. Through disciplined execution, operational excellence, strategically reshaping our portfolio and strengthening our balance sheet we have worked to build a stronger, more resilient company that is positioned to perform across evolving industry dynamics and deliver increased value to shareholders.

Operational performance was a clear differentiator throughout the year. We delivered record annual production of 1.43 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day, exceeding the high end of our guidance while spending $300 million less in oil and gas capital and reducing operating expenses by $275 million, achieving our lowest lease operating expense per BOE since 2021. Importantly, our employees achieved these outcomes while establishing a new safety performance record, a testament to our culture of delivering results while striving to work safely and responsibly.

Underpinned by high-quality resources, we believe our portfolio has never been stronger. Through a series of strategic asset acquisitions and divestitures that we began in 2015, which culminated with the sale of OxyChem earlier this year, we have built a differentiated asset base anchored by world-class U.S. unconventional resources, complemented by high-margin, lower decline domestic conventional, Gulf of America and international assets, and enhanced by decades of leadership in advanced recovery. This combination helps provide both flexibility and resilience across commodity cycles and positions Oxy to generate sustainable free cash flow across a range of pricing environments. Our portfolio offers more than 30 years of low-cost development runway with a total resource base of approximately 16.5 billion BOE compared to 8.1 billion BOE in 2015. Eighty three percent of our current production and almost 88% of our total resource base is in the United States-significantly lowering geopolitical risk. Each year we have continued to extend and improve organically. We strive to add at least as many reserves as we produce. At the end of 2025, Oxy's worldwide proved reserves totaled 4.6 billion BOE. Proved reserve additions included extensions and discoveries totaling 340 million BOE, mainly in the Permian Basin, and additions from infill development projects of 115 million BOE, primarily in the Permian and DJ Basins. This resulted in a 107% organic reserves replacement ratio and a 98% all-in reserves replacement ratio.¹

We continue to advance technologies that extend resource life and improve capital efficiency. In the Permian Basin, we are deepening reservoir characterization and advancing unconventional enhanced oil recovery. In the Gulf of America and across our international portfolio, advanced seismic and data analytics are furthering reliability and unlocking new development opportunities. In Algeria, we completed the country's largest seismic acquisition, providing a rich dataset to support future development and recovery optimization. STRATOS, our industrial-scale Direct Air Capture facility, is expected to be online this year and the technology will play a strategic role in securing long-term, reliable CO2 supply to support enhanced oil recovery and future carbon management opportunities. Together, these efforts are expected to lower decline rates, reduce sustaining capital, and enhance long-term value.

Production and operational reliability were equally strong across our global footprint. In 2025, our teams delivered industry-leading well performance across all of our U.S. onshore basins. We achieved record production at Al Hosn, record uptimes in Algeria, the Gulf of America, Al Hosn, and U.S. onshore EOR operations, and strong base production delivery that contributed meaningfully to our full-year production outperformance. Our Midstream business also delivered exceptional results, exceeding original guidance driven by effective gas marketing optimization in the Permian and higher sulfur prices at Al Hosn.

These operational outcomes translated directly into financial strength. We generated $4.3 billion in free cash flow before working capital in 2025¹, despite oil prices that were on average approximately 14 percent lower than in 2024.

Strengthening the balance sheet remained a top priority. During 2025, we repaid $4 billion of debt, and with the completion of the OxyChem transaction earlier this year, our principal debt now stands at approximately $13.8 billion, about $4.2 billion lower than prior to the CrownRock acquisition. Over the past 20 months, we have retired over $15 billion of debt, materially improving our leverage profile and financial flexibility.

Looking ahead, our priorities are clear and consistent-building on the progress we made last year. First, we plan to maintain our production base through safe, reliable operations. Second, delivering a sustainable and growing dividend remains central to our strategy. Third, we will continue to strengthen our financial position and deliver value to our shareholders.

To deliver these priorities, we can now focus on what our teams do best: applying innovative technologies and processes to develop our robust portfolio. For years, this approach has driven meaningful gains in capital efficiency, improved recovery, lowered operating costs and decreased our base decline. Much of this progress has come from advances in subsurface, drilling and completions combined with greater use of AI in our models and operations. Few industries stand to benefit more from AI than oil and gas, given the tremendous volume of data associated with the complexity of our work. This creates opportunities that we are advancing through our AI Center of Excellence and an Operations "SWAT" Team, addressing longer-term studies and near-term operational application, respectively. We look forward to the new discoveries and achievements our teams will accomplish and convert to increase shareholder value in the coming years.

I am deeply grateful to our teams for their relentless drive to improve performance while also delivering record safety results. I also thank our Board of Directors for their guidance and our shareholders for their continued support.

Together, we are well-positioned for the years ahead.

Vicki Hollub
President and
Chief Executive Officer

Xavier analysis
The CEO consistently highlights record achievements, strategic successes, and strong financial positioning, conveying a clear and optimistic outlook for the company's future.
Strategic themes by emphasis
#1Financial Strength & Capital Discipline
#2Operational Excellence & Production Achievement
#3Technological Innovation for Efficiency & Carbon Management
#4Portfolio Optimization & Resource Base Expansion
#5Shareholder Value Creation
9 named projects & initiatives
OxyChem divestiture, CrownRock acquisition, Permian Basin, DJ Basins, STRATOS, Al Hosn +3 more
4 operational area, 1 restructuring, 1 acquisition, 1 facility, 1 r and d, 1 program
Forward-looking statements
13 total: 2 quantified, 9 directional, 2 vague
Capital allocation priority
Organic Growth (Maintain Production Base) → Shareholder Returns (Dividends) → Financial Flexibility (Strengthen Balance Sheet/Debt Reduction)
Key quotes
“2025 was a transformational year for Oxy.”
Sets an overarching positive theme for the year, signaling significant progress and change.
“Underpinned by high-quality resources, we believe our portfolio has never been stronger.”
Expresses strong confidence in the company's core asset base as a foundation for future success.
View 2025 Annual Report (PDF) →
Executive compensation
Signal
NameTitleTotal compensation
Vicki HollubPresident and Chief Executive Officer$18,055,969
Sunil MathewSenior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer$5,452,005
Richard A. JacksonSenior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer$7,611,362
Kenneth DillonSenior Vice President and President, International Oil and Gas Operations$6,030,681
Jeff F. SimmonsSenior Vice President and Chief Petrotechnical Officer$5,369,572
Source: DEF 14A proxy statement · 2026-03-19
Governance
Pro
Dual-class shares: No
Poison pill: No
Clawback policy: Yes
Stock ownership req.: Yes
Shareholder proposals
Elect the ten directors named in the proxy statement to serve until the 2027 Ann
FOR
Pending
Approve, on an advisory basis, named executive officer compensation
FOR
Pending
Ratify the selection of KPMG as Occidental’s independent auditor
FOR
Pending
Debt intelligence
Pro
20 debt instruments · 6 CUSIPs · 5 unique covenants
0.38x
Debt / Equity
1.9x
Interest coverage
1.0x
Net Debt / EBITDA
$10.9B
Net debt
18%
Debt / Assets
Interest coverage trend (EBITDA / Interest expense)
13.5x
24-06
11.3x
24-09
9.6x
25-03
9.7x
25-06
11.9x
25-09
5.1x
26-03
Credit facilities & debt instruments
Bond
Fifth Supplemental Indenture Amending and Supplementing the Indenture Dated as of August 8, 2019
Matures 2031-01-01 · Filed 2026-03-09
Fixed
unsecured
Credit $4,150,000,000.00
Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement
Matures · Filed 2024-08-07
Floating · SOFR
Revolver $4,000,000,000
THIRD AMENDED AND RESTATED CREDIT AGREEMENT
Matures 2028-06-30 · Filed 2024-02-05
Floating · SOFR | Prime | NYFRB Rate
unsecured
Term Loan $4,700,000,000
OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION TERM LOAN AGREEMENT
Matures · Filed 2023-12-28
Floating · SOFR
Unsecured. The 'Limitation on Liens' covenant (Section 6.02(b)) restricts the Company and its Consolidated Subsidiaries from incurring 'Secured Debt' unless the Obligations are equally and ratably secured, implying the Term Loans are unsecured.
67460TAP3 67460TAQ1 67460TAR9
Credit $4,000,000,000
SECOND AMENDED AND RESTATED CREDIT AGREEMENT
Matures 2025-06-30 · Filed 2021-12-13
Floating · SOFR | Prime | NYFRB Rate
Unsecured. The agreement refers to 'senior, unsecured, non-credit-enhanced, publicly-held, long-term indebtedness' as 'Index Debt' and includes a 'Limitation on Liens' covenant, indicating the facility itself is unsecured.
Bond
Third Supplemental Indenture
Matures · Filed 2021-07-15
Unsecured (for the underlying notes). The 'Limitation on Liens' covenant (Section 1007) was deleted.
14 additional agreements on file
Financial covenants
Maximum Total Debt to Total Capitalization Ratio
≤ 0.65:1.00
Total Debt / Total Capitalization
THIRD AMENDED AND RESTATED CREDIT AGREEMENT
Maximum Secured Debt
≤ 15% of Consolidated Net Tangible Assets
Aggregate amount of all Secured Debt, together with all Discounted Rental Value in respect of sale and leaseback transactions involving Principal Domestic Properties
THIRD AMENDED AND RESTATED CREDIT AGREEMENT
Maximum Total Debt to Total Capitalization Ratio
≤ 0.65x
Total Debt / Total Capitalization
OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION TERM LOAN AGREEME
Limitation on Liens (Secured Debt)
≤ 15% of Consolidated Net Tangible Assets
Aggregate amount of all Secured Debt, together with all Discounted Rental Value in respect of sale and leaseback transactions involving Principal Domestic Properties (excluding exempted transactions)
SECOND AMENDED AND RESTATED CREDIT AGREEMENT
Maximum Secured Debt and Discounted Rental Value to Consolidated Net Tangible Assets
≤ 15%
(Secured Debt + Discounted Rental Value) / Consolidated Net Tangible Assets
Term Loan Agreement for $8,800,000,000 committed t
CUSIP identifiers (6 on file)
67460TAP3 67460TAQ1 67460TAR9 674599CK9 674599CH6 674599CJ2
Cross-default risk
5 agreements contain cross-default provisions — a covenant breach on one facility may trigger default on others.
Xavier risk radar
Pro
Covenant headroom
Low leverage — no covenants required
Earnings quality
High quality (cash conversion 4.1x)
Risk trend
Risk increasing — Volatile global and local commodity pricing strongly affects the Company’s resul
Mgmt narrative
Management tone: Cautiously optimistic
Analyst drift
Consensus Buy — targets stable
Insider sentiment
Pattern detection — 90 days needed
Signal history
Signal
DateDirectionConf.Agree.ThesisPriceType
Jul 12, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.1/10 75% OXY is experiencing a confluence of near-term tailwinds: a fresh Evercore ISI upgrade to Outperform ... $52.89 Sched.
Jul 11, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.2/10 75% OXY has medium-term value support from a much lower forward P/E and a large gap to analyst price tar... $52.89 Sched.
Jun 07, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.0/10 100% OXY trades at a deeply distorted TTM P/E of 76x due to acquisition-related cost drag, but the forwar... $56.93 Sched.
May 31, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.7/10 50% OXY's TTM P/E of 76x is wildly distorted by the OxyChem divestiture gain, and on a forward basis (~1... $56.63 Sched.
May 24, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.5/10 75% OXY is a direct beneficiary of the Strait of Hormuz supply shock: WTI near $96-97/bbl and Brent ~$10... $58.81 Sched.
May 17, 2026 BEARISH 6.7/10 50% OXY is a direct beneficiary of a structurally tight global oil market driven by the de facto closure... $59.62 Sched.
May 10, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.5/10 75% OXY faces a powerful near-term headwind: WTI crude has dropped ~19% from its late-April peak as US-I... $53.03 Sched.
May 03, 2026 NEUTRAL 7.1/10 50% OXY is a direct beneficiary of a structural oil price shock driven by the Strait of Hormuz closure, ... $58.71 Sched.
May 01, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.8/10 75% OXY's TTM P/E of 43x is deeply misleading — forward P/E of 16x is far more representative given Q1 2... $58.47 Sched.
Apr 12, 2026 BULLISH 7.1/10 75% OXY is trading at $57.97, roughly 6% below its consensus analyst price target of $61.72, with a May ... $57.97 Sched.
Showing last 10 signals
OXY Occidental Petroleum Corporation
Signal
FY2026 annual report (10-K filed 2026-02-18)
INCOME STATEMENT
? Revenue
$21,593 million -1.94% YoY
? Operating income
$3,649 million
? Net income
$2,369 million
? Free cash flow
$4,246 million
? EPS (diluted)
$3.13
? Dividend per share
$0.96
Click any row to expand the plain-English explanation. Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings.
Capital intelligence
Signal
Weighted Average Cost of Capital · Return on Invested Capital · Economic Value Added
ROIC
3.71%
WACC
4.49%
🟡 NEUTRAL — EVA Spread: -0.78%
? WACC
4.49%
? Cost of equity
5.08%
? Cost of debt (after-tax)
2.32%
? Capital structure
E: 78.68% / D: 21.32%
? ROIC
3.71%
? EVA
-$387M
? NOPAT
$1.8B
Risk-free rate: 4.25% (10Y Treasury) · Equity risk premium: 5.50% · Sources: total_debt: XBRL, operating_income: XBRL TTM (4Q sum), interest_expense: XBRL, invested_capital: Equity + Debt - Cash
Xavier consensus signals are intelligence outputs, not investment advice. All signals are generated by a multi-model AI system and reflect public information at time of generation. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future performance. Wall Street analyst consensus sourced from public disclosures, summarized weekly. Financial data sourced from SEC EDGAR and yfinance. Insider transactions sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 4 filings. Updated Jul 12, 2026.