MSJ-100 Index
1,036.65
Signal breadth
4 Bullish 93 Neutral 3 Bearish Avg confidence 6.16 / 10
View full MSJ-100 ↗
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
Information Technology · NYSE: NVDA · MSJ-100
$211.80
▲ $8.27  (▲4.06%) today
After-hours: $211.82  ▲ 0.01%
Headquarters
Santa Clara, CA
Employees
42,000
Founded
1993
CEO
Mr. Jen-Hsun Huang
Incorporated
Delaware
Fiscal Year End
January
Analyst price target range Free
Avg target $301.62
$212 now
Bear $180 Avg $302 Bull $500
Price history Free
Volume
124.36M
Avg volume
158.65M
Open
$208.20
Day high / low
$212.54 / $203.80
Market cap
$5.13T
About this company
Free
NVIDIA pioneered accelerated computing, evolving into a data center scale AI infrastructure company. It provides GPUs, CPUs, networking, and a comprehensive software stack (CUDA) for AI model training and inference, data analytics, scientific computing, robotics, and 3D graphics. The company serves diverse markets including data centers, gaming, professional visualization, and automotive.
Business segments
10-K
Compute & Networking Graphics
Recent News
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Earnings call: Q1 FY2026 2026
Intel
Free
May 20, 2026Confident
● Full transcript on file
Colette Kress (Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer), Toshiya (Unknown)
Key metrics
Q1 FY2026 revenue $44.0 billion (+69% YoY); Data center revenue $39.0 billion (+73% YoY); H20 revenue $4.6 billion recognized pre-April 9 with $4.5 billion inventory write-down; Pro Visualization revenue $509 million (flat sequentially, +19% YoY); Automotive revenue $567 million (-1% sequentially, +72% YoY); Record shareholder returns of $14.3 bill
Forward guidance
Q2 outlook expects loss of approximately $8 billion in H20 revenue due to regulatory restrictions. GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins expected to be 71.8% and 72% respectively, plus or minus 50 basis points. Company targeting mid-70s gross margins range by late fiscal year 2026 with better Blackwell profitability driving modest sequential margin impro
Notable Q&A
Not available in provided transcript excerpt. Full Q&A session details not included in search results.
Surprise items
Significant H20 revenue impact: $4.6 billion recognized in Q1 but offset by $4.5 billion inventory and purchase obligation write-down related to orders prior to April 9 (likely U.S. export restrictions). Q2 guidance reflects ~$8 billion H20 revenue loss, representing major headwind. Record capital r
Q1 2026 (May 20, 2026) · Confident Q1 FY2027 (May 20, 2026) · Confident
Fundamentals
Signal
52-week high / low
$236.54 / $164.07
Forward P/E
16.6×
Trailing 32.4×
Dividend
$1.00 / share
Yield 0.49%
Analysts covering
58
Avg target $301.62
Beta
2.21
vs. S&P 500
Short interest
1.3%
Float shorted
Buy
95%
Hold
3%
Sell
2%
Wall Street consensus — sourced weekly via public disclosures
Analyst coverage data sourced from public filings. Xavier analyst thesis summary available after weekly Perplexity scan completes.
Financial summary — Gemini analysis
Signal
Revenue
$215,938 million
65% YoY
Operating margin
60.4%
Net income
$120,067 million
Free cash flow
$96,676 million
Dividend / share
$0.04
Total debt
$8,468 million
Cash: $10,605 million
CapEx guidance
Expects to increase capital expenditures in fiscal year 2027 relative to fiscal year 2026.
Earnings quality: MEDIUM
Cash conversion:0.9x
Non-recurring items: $4.5 billion charge for H20 excess inventory and purchase obligations in Q1 FY2026, Unrealized gains in non-marketable and publicly-held equity securities
Source: SEC 10-K filing analyzed by Gemini 2.5 Flash · 2026-02-25
Xavier sector view:
Information Technology
See journal
View Information Technology journal ↗
Xavier's signal
BULLISH
↑ Changed from BULLISH · Jul 11, 2026
Signal
Confidence 7.1 / 10  ·  50% model agreement  ·  Scheduled Jul 12, 2026
NVDA has re-rated sharply lower from its May 2026 all-time high, and at roughly 16-18x forward earnings it is now trading at or below the S&P 500 multiple — the cheapest it has been since pre-AI-boom 2019 — despite Q1 FY2027 revenue growing 85% YoY with Data Center up 92%. Today's 4% surge reclaims the psychologically critical $200 level, and the Kyber delay rumor has been officially denied, removing a near-term overhang. The risk/reward for the next 5 days tilts modestly bullish on momentum recapture and valuation support, but conviction is capped by macro neutrality and persistent structural headwinds.
Strongest bull case
Forward P/E of ~16-18x is below the S&P 500 average and near 7-year lows for NVDA, while hyperscaler AI capex is projected to rise from $650B in 2026 to $1T in 2027 — the business is compounding at 85%+ revenue growth with no valuation premium left to compress. Potential share buyback acceleration (NVDA reiterated 50% of cash flow returned to shareholders) provides a near-term technical floor.
Strongest bear case
China Data Center revenue has fallen to effectively zero following cascading export control escalations through May 2026 (Blackwell series now requires export licenses), representing a permanent $15-20B annual revenue gap that competitors like Huawei are filling domestically — and this structural loss is not fully appreciated in the still-elevated $5T market cap. Additionally, gross margin pressure from higher memory costs and the rise of custom ASICs (Google TPUs, Amazon Trainium) represent compounding threats to pricing power.
What the market may be missing
The consensus is treating NVDA's forward P/E compression as a buying opportunity without adequately pricing in that China foreclosure is permanent and structural — not cyclical. NVDA's own 10-K states it is 'effectively foreclosed from competing in China's data center computing market' and that this 'helped competitors build larger developer and customer ecosystems to challenge us worldwide.' The CUDA moat is being eroded specifically in the world's second-largest AI market, and the $119B in supply commitments on the balance sheet create significant demand-risk if hyperscaler capex normalizes even modestly below projections.
Model breakdown
Signal
Atlas (Claude) — BULLISH
Meridian (GPT-4) — NEUTRAL
Grayline (Grok) — NEUTRAL
Vantage (Gemini) — BULLISH
msj100_NVDA_20260712T003715Z
Peer comparison
Signal
NVDA
current
$211.80 ▲4.1%
ADBE
NEUTRAL
$223.64
AMD
NEUTRAL
$557.89
ORCL
NEUTRAL
$140.64
AVGO
NEUTRAL
$399.97
Recent SEC filings
Signal
LOG
4 — 2026-07-06
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
P2 AUTO
8-K — 2026-07-02
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
8-K — 2026-06-30
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-06-29
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-06-29
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
CEO scorecard — Jen-Hsun Huang
Signal summary
Full detail Pro
JH
Jen-Hsun Huang
President and Chief Executive Officer · NVIDIA Corporation
CEO since 1993
Total compensation
$49,866,251 ▲ 46.0% YoY
Prior year: $34,167,902
Pay vs performance
Aligned
Board assessment
Say-on-pay approval
Shareholder vote
Board independence
12/13 (92%)
Diversity: 38% (5 women)
Base salary$1,486,199
Bonus / incentive$6,000,000
Stock awards$38,811,306
Executive appearances
Intel
Free
University2026-05-00
Carnegie Mellon University Commencement Ceremony Source ↗
Mr. Jen-Hsun Huang (CEO) · Carnegie Mellon University
Huang received an honorary doctorate and delivered a keynote speech encouraging students to embrace AI. Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan personally presented him with the doctoral robe. Huang previewed new collaborative products between Nvidia and Intel.
ConferenceApr 24, 2026
Milken Institute Global Conference Source ↗
Mr. Jen-Hsun Huang (CEO) · Milken Institute Global Conference
Jen-Hsun Huang was asked about Intel's Q1 2026 earnings report, which showed $13.6 billion in revenue with a 22% surge in Data Center and AI (DCAI). He discussed the competitive landscape in AI chips and data centers. Huang highlighted Nvidia's conti
CEO letter to shareholders
Signal
Full letter Pro
Jensen Huang 2023 Annual Report OPTIMISTIC

“Generative AI is the defining technology of our time. Blackwell is the engine to power this new industrial revolution. Working with the most dynamic companies in the world, we will realize the promise of AI for every industry.”

Jensen Huang
Chief Executive Officer

Xavier analysis
The CEO uses highly positive and assertive language, describing Generative AI as a 'defining technology' and Blackwell as 'the engine to power' a 'new industrial revolution,' conveying strong confidence in NVIDIA's transformative role and future success.
Strategic themes by emphasis
#1Generative AI Leadership
2 named projects & initiatives
Generative AI, Blackwell
1 technology, 1 product
Forward-looking statements
3 total: 0 quantified, 3 directional, 0 vague
Key quotes
“Generative AI is the defining technology of our time.”
Highlights the CEO's conviction in Generative AI's overarching importance and NVIDIA's central role in it.
“Blackwell is the engine to power this new industrial revolution.”
Identifies NVIDIA's Blackwell platform as the core technology enabling a major global transformation.
View 2023 Annual Report (PDF) →
Executive compensation
Signal
NameTitleTotal compensation
Jen-Hsun HuangPresident and CEO$49,866,251
Colette M. KressEVP and CFO$21,362,532
Ajay K. PuriEVP, Worldwide Field Operations$21,590,897
Debora ShoquistEVP, Operations$19,217,903
Timothy S. TeterEVP, General Counsel and Secretary$19,201,821
Source: DEF 14A proxy statement · 2025-05-13
Governance
Pro
Dual-class shares: No
Poison pill: No
Clawback policy: Yes
Stock ownership req.: Yes
Shareholder proposals
Special Shareholder Meeting Improvement (eliminate one-year holding period)
AGAINST
Pending
Director Election Resignation Governance Policy
AGAINST
Pending
Workforce Data Reporting (include EEOC job categories)
AGAINST
Pending
Debt intelligence
Pro
1 debt instrument · 2 unique covenants
0.06x
Debt / Equity
503.4x
Interest coverage
-0.0x
Net Debt / EBITDA
$-1.1B
Net debt
5%
Debt / Assets
Credit facilities & debt instruments
Bond $1,250,000,000
0.309% Notes due 2023
Matures 2023-06-15 · Filed 2021-06-16
Fixed
unsecured
67066G AK0 US67066GAK04 67066G AL8 US67066GAL86 +4
Financial covenants
Limitation on Liens
does not exceed 15% of the Issuer’s Consolidated Net Tangible Assets
Aggregate Debt to Consolidated Net Tangible Assets
0.309% Notes due 2023
Limitation on Sale and Leaseback Transactions
does not exceed 15% of the Issuer’s Consolidated Net Tangible Assets
Aggregate Debt to Consolidated Net Tangible Assets
0.309% Notes due 2023
Xavier risk radar
Pro
Covenant headroom
Low leverage — no covenants required
Earnings quality
MEDIUM (cash conversion 0.9x)
Risk trend
Risk increasing — Complex and expanding U.S. export control restrictions, particularly impacting D
Mgmt narrative
Management tone: Cautiously optimistic
Analyst drift
Consensus Buy — targets stable
Insider sentiment
Pattern detection — 90 days needed
Signal history
Signal
DateDirectionConf.Agree.ThesisPriceType
Jul 12, 2026 BULLISH 7.1/10 50% NVDA has re-rated sharply lower from its May 2026 all-time high, and at roughly 16-18x forward earni... $210.96 Sched.
Jul 11, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.3/10 75% NVDA still has a powerful structural AI demand story and forward P/E is not extreme relative to its ... $210.96 Sched.
Jun 07, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.3/10 75% NVDA's sharp -6.2% single-day selloff on elevated volume (218M vs. 167M avg) reflects real near-term... $205.10 Sched.
May 31, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.2/10 100% NVIDIA just delivered a blowout Q1 FY2027 beat — 85% YoY revenue growth, $81.6B in revenue, EPS of $... $211.14 Sched.
May 24, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.4/10 100% NVDA remains a dominant AI infrastructure franchise with strong long-term earnings power, but for th... $215.33 Sched.
May 17, 2026 NEUTRAL 5.9/10 100% NVDA enters its May 20 Q1 FY2027 earnings report having already rallied ~20% in a month and printing... $225.32 Sched.
May 10, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.4/10 100% NVDA has exceptional fundamental momentum and benefits from a bullish macro tape, but at ~44x traili... $215.20 Sched.
May 03, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.7/10 75% NVDA trades at a 40.5x TTM P/E but a compelling 17.7x forward P/E, reflecting already-priced-in hype... $198.45 Sched.
Apr 12, 2026 BULLISH 7.7/10 100% NVDA is recovering from a Q1 2026 correction with technical structure improving — the $185 Fibonacci... $188.63 Sched.
Showing last 9 signals
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation
Signal
FY2026 annual report (10-K filed 2026-02-25)
INCOME STATEMENT
? Revenue
$215,938 million 65% YoY
? Operating income
$130,387 million
? Net income
$120,067 million
? Free cash flow
$96,676 million
? EPS (diluted)
$2.39
? Dividend per share
$0.04
Click any row to expand the plain-English explanation. Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings.
Capital intelligence
Signal
Weighted Average Cost of Capital · Return on Invested Capital · Economic Value Added
ROIC
70.63%
WACC
16.39%
🟢 VALUE CREATOR — EVA Spread: 54.24%
? WACC
16.39%
? Cost of equity
16.41%
? Cost of debt (after-tax)
4.59%
? Capital structure
E: 99.82% / D: 0.18%
? ROIC
70.63%
? EVA
$104.0B
? NOPAT
$135.4B
Risk-free rate: 4.25% (10Y Treasury) · Equity risk premium: 5.50% · Sources: total_debt: XBRL, operating_income: XBRL TTM (4Q sum), invested_capital: Equity + Debt - Cash
Xavier consensus signals are intelligence outputs, not investment advice. All signals are generated by a multi-model AI system and reflect public information at time of generation. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future performance. Wall Street analyst consensus sourced from public disclosures, summarized weekly. Financial data sourced from SEC EDGAR and yfinance. Insider transactions sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 4 filings. Updated Jul 12, 2026.