MSJ-100 Index
1,036.65
Signal breadth
4 Bullish 93 Neutral 3 Bearish Avg confidence 6.16 / 10
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NKE
NIKE Inc.
Consumer Discretionary · NYSE: NKE · MSJ-100
$42.86
▼ $0.90  (▼2.06%) today
After-hours: $43.00  ▲ 0.33%
Headquarters
Beaverton, OR
Employees
77,800
Founded
1964
CEO
Mr. Elliott J. Hill
Incorporated
Oregon
Fiscal Year End
May
Analyst price target range Free
Avg target $51.30
$43 now
Bear $23 Avg $51 Bull $94
Price history Free
Volume
13.09M
Avg volume
23.77M
Open
$44.31
Day high / low
$44.49 / $42.47
Market cap
$63.5B
About this company
Free
NIKE, Inc. designs, develops, and markets athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessories globally under the NIKE, Jordan, and Converse brands. The company sells its products through its own retail stores, digital platforms, and wholesale accounts, operating as the world's largest seller in its industry.
Business segments
10-K
North America Europe, Middle East & Africa Greater China Asia Pacific & Latin America Converse
Recent News
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Earnings call: Q4 FY2026 FY2026
Intel
Free
Jun 30, 2026Cautious
● Full transcript on file
Operator (Conference Call Operator), Paul Trussell (VP of Corporate Finance and Treasurer), John Donahoe (President & Chief Executive Officer), Matthew Friend (Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer)
Key metrics
NIKE, Inc. reported **Q4 FY26 revenue of approximately $11.0 billion**, down 1% on a reported basis and down 4% on a currency‑neutral basis.[2][6] EPS for Q4 FY26 was around **$0.20**, beating consensus estimates of roughly $0.12, with gross margin stabilizing after four sequential quarters of improvement through the fiscal year.[3][6] Wholesale re
Forward guidance
Management guided to a path back toward **gross margin expansion** in fiscal 2027, citing four consecutive quarters of margin stabilization and improvement through FY26.[3][4] They indicated that revenue growth in the first half of next year should be broadly consistent with the Q4 framework and highlighted more balanced growth across Nike Direct a
Notable Q&A
One notable exchange involved an analyst asking about the outlook for North America and channel mix, where management responded that North America would continue to sustain momentum with more balanced growth between Nike Direct and wholesale, driven by cleaner inventories and improving profitability
Surprise items
The EPS beat versus consensus, despite slightly declining revenue, was a positive surprise supported by better‑than‑expected margin performance.[3][6] However, the combination of revenue decline, softness in Nike Direct, tariff‑related pressures, and cautious commentary on EMEA and future growth led
Q3 FY2026 (Apr 01, 2026) · Neutral Q3 2026 (Mar 21, 2026) · Cautious
Fundamentals
Signal
52-week high / low
$80.17 / $40.00
Forward P/E
18.2×
Trailing 20.4×
Dividend
$1.64 / share
Yield 3.75%
Analysts covering
34
Avg target $51.30
Beta
1.13
vs. S&P 500
Short interest
7.6%
Float shorted
Buy
31%
Hold
64%
Sell
5%
Wall Street consensus — sourced weekly via public disclosures
Analyst coverage data sourced from public filings. Xavier analyst thesis summary available after weekly Perplexity scan completes.
Financial summary — Gemini analysis
Signal
Revenue
$46,309 million
-9.83% YoY
Operating margin
8.0%
Net income
$3,219 million
Free cash flow
$3,268 million
Dividend / share
$1.570
Total debt
$7,961 million
Cash: $7,464 million
Earnings quality: HIGH
Cash conversion:1.1x
Non-recurring items: Restructuring charges related to employee severance and accelerated stock-based compensation in FY2024 of $443M, Non-recurring tax benefits from delay of U.S. foreign tax credit regulations in FY2024, One-time non-cash deferred tax benefit from U.S. tax regulations on foreign currency gains and losses in FY2025 of $133M
Source: SEC 10-K filing analyzed by Gemini 2.5 Flash · 2025-07-17
Xavier sector view:
Consumer Discretionary
See journal
View Consumer Discretionary journal ↗
Xavier's signal
NEUTRAL
Signal
Confidence 6.3 / 10  ·  100% model agreement  ·  Scheduled Jul 12, 2026
NKE is in the early innings of a painful turnaround: Q4 FY26 results beat a very low bar but management explicitly guided for low-to-mid single-digit revenue declines over the next three quarters with no expectation of material macro improvement. The stock has bounced ~10% off its 52-week low but still sits 45% below its 52-week high, reflecting deeply impaired fundamentals rather than a genuine recovery — making the risk/reward balanced rather than compelling in a 5-day window.
Strongest bull case
Post-earnings reset has flushed out most near-term negative catalysts; the stock trades near 1x TTM price-to-sales (a level not seen since 2008–2009), analyst consensus price targets of ~$52 imply ~17% upside, and a Truist Buy upgrade on July 3 plus bullish Cboe options flow suggest institutional accumulation at these levels.
Strongest bear case
Management guided for low-to-mid single-digit revenue declines across the next three quarters, Greater China plunged 17% on a currency-neutral basis in Q4, NIKE Direct dropped 9%, Converse revenues collapsed 32%, and tariff rates are set to rise from 10% to 15% in August 2026 — meaning the fundamental deterioration is ongoing with no clear bottom in sight, and Zacks rates NKE a Sell with a Value Score of D and Momentum Score of F.
What the market may be missing
The Q4 gross margin beat (49.2%) was substantially inflated by a one-time $986M IEEPA tariff refund benefit; the underlying gross margin was only 40.2%, down 10 basis points year-over-year. The market may be anchoring on the headline beat without sufficiently discounting that the incoming CFO transition in August 2026 and the tariff rate increase coincide with the weakest guided revenue quarter — creating an execution and credibility risk window that is not yet priced into the recent bounce.
Model breakdown
Signal
Atlas (Claude) — NEUTRAL
Meridian (GPT-4) — NEUTRAL
Grayline (Grok) — NEUTRAL
Vantage (Gemini) — NEUTRAL
msj100_NKE_20260712T003715Z
Peer comparison
Signal
NKE
current
$42.86 ▼2.1%
TJX
NEUTRAL
$151.34
HD
NEUTRAL
$343.30
TSLA
NEUTRAL
$407.76
AMZN
NEUTRAL
$245.34
Recent SEC filings
Signal
P2 AUTO
8-K — 2026-06-30
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
P2 AUTO
8-K — 2026-06-23
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
P2 AUTO
8-K — 2026-06-18
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-06-12
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-06-12
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
CEO scorecard — Elliott Hill
Signal summary
Full detail Pro
EH
Elliott Hill
President and Chief Executive Officer · NIKE Inc.
CEO since 2024-10-14
Total compensation
$26,018,068
Pay vs performance
Aligned
Board assessment
Say-on-pay approval
83%
Shareholder vote
Board independence
9/12 (75%)
Base salary$1,500,000
Bonus / incentive$4,000,000
Stock awards$14,887,893
CEO letter to shareholders
Signal
Full letter Pro
John Donahoe 2023 Annual Report MIXED

TO OUR SHAREHOLDERS,

At Nike, our athletes inspire us to always raise the bar for ourselves.

We're inspired by elite athletes who perform at the highest levels and drive the energy and excitement of sport on the world's biggest stages. And we invite new generations into sport, growing the worldwide community of athletes in neighborhoods and communities everywhere.

As the global athletic market leader, our scale and breadth provide the opportunity to create impact on a level that only Nike can. We start with innovation that pushes human potential forward and combine that with storytelling that connects with the consumer. Today, consumers all over the world continue to recognize Nike as their #1 brand for athletes and sport.

That said, we have work to do to reach our full potential. For FY24, revenue growth was up approximately 1% on a currency neutral basis and earnings per share grew 15%. However, we underperformed our expectations for the past three quarters and lowered our outlook. This does not meet what we expect of ourselves, and we are working tirelessly to make the necessary adjustments.

Over this past year, we've been clear about the strategic shifts we're taking as a company. These actions include leadership and organizational changes, kick-starting a multi-year innovation cycle and creating capacity to invest in consumer-facing activities.

Today, we're aligned, focused and positioned to compete and win:

  • We're sharpening our focus on sport.
  • We're accelerating our pace and scaling of newness and innovation.
  • We're driving bigger, bolder storytelling.
  • And we're elevating the entire marketplace to fuel brand distinction and be in the path of the consumer.

This is our playbook. And while FY25 will be a transition year for our business, we continue to make real progress on our comeback.

It began by aligning our organization to put a sharp focus on sport back at the center of everything we do. This meant reinvestment in consumer-led, sport-focused teams that are the foundation of our offense.

As we fuel a pipeline of new innovation, we will introduce new franchises, concepts and platforms. Key innovations from this past year ranged from breakthrough innovation for runners with the AlphyFly 3 to basketball innovation with the GT Cut and Sabrina 1, a shoe that continues to resonate across gender. In FY24, we also launched a new lifestyle platform in Dynamic Air and updated our biggest performance franchise, Pegasus 41, to create a shoe that's more comfortable, durable and responsive than ever.

We're driving bigger, bolder storytelling through brand campaigns like our Euro Champs anthem, "Awaken Your Madness.” Our signing of the German football federation this year will give us an opportunity to make the German team a global brand and make their athletes global heroes. And we're excited for the Paris Olympics to offer us a pinnacle moment to communicate our vision of sport to the world, with athletes at the center from brand voice to retail activations.

And we're building energy across the full marketplace, including Nike Direct and our strategic partners. Our wholesale partners help us scale our innovation and newness in physical stores and connect our brands in the path of the consumer. We've also accelerated our ground game in FY24, including a deeper investment in neighborhood activations to drive consumer trialing of new products. And we continue to connect directly with consumers through our membership program regardless of where they shop across the marketplace.

In the end, we're making these strategic shifts with urgency in the face of the opportunities we see ahead. This is all thanks to the passion and grit of our global team, which is laser-focused on aggressively asserting the future of Nike. As we look ahead to what promises to be a thrilling Olympic Games in Paris, we know this summer will help set the tone for a stronger Nike – one better positioned to create long-term value for consumers and shareholders.

Respectfully,

John

JOHN DONAHOE
President and Chief Executive Officer
NIKE, Inc.

Xavier analysis
The letter acknowledges underperformance and a 'transition year' for the business, indicating caution, but strongly asserts confidence in the strategic adjustments, innovation pipeline, and the company's ability to compete and win.
Strategic themes by emphasis
#1Strategic Reassessment & Future Direction
#2Product Innovation & Newness
#3Brand Storytelling & Global Events
#4Marketplace Strategy & Consumer Connection
#5Organizational Focus on Sport
10 named projects & initiatives
AlphyFly 3, GT Cut, Sabrina 1, Dynamic Air, Pegasus 41, Euro Champs anthem +4 more
5 product, 4 other, 1 partnership
Forward-looking statements
7 total: 0 quantified, 7 directional, 0 vague
Capital allocation priority
Investing in Consumer-Facing Activities → Reinvestment in Sport-Focused Teams
Key quotes
“That said, we have work to do to reach our full potential.”
This quote directly acknowledges shortcomings despite some growth, setting a candid and action-oriented tone for the letter.
“Today, we're aligned, focused and positioned to compete and win:”
This statement signals a clear, proactive strategic shift and renewed commitment to market leadership after admitting prior underperformance.
View 2023 Annual Report (PDF) →2 letters on file (2023, 2022) · Full history with Pro
Executive compensation
Signal
NameTitleTotal compensation
Elliott HillPresident and Chief Executive Officer$26,018,068
Matthew FriendExecutive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer$14,103,722
Robert LeinwandExecutive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer$6,854,481
Ann MillerExecutive Vice President, Global Sports Marketing$10,170,911
Craig WilliamsExecutive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer$15,766,587
John Donahoe IIFormer President and Chief Executive Officer$28,442,712
Source: DEF 14A proxy statement · 2025-07-17
Governance
Pro
Dual-class shares: Yes
Poison pill: No
Clawback policy: Yes
Stock ownership req.: Yes
Shareholder proposals
Elect the 12 directors named
FOR
Pending
Approve executive compensation by an advisory vote
FOR
Pending
Ratify the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as our independent register
FOR
Pending
Approve the NIKE, Inc. Stock Incentive Plan, as amended and restated
FOR
Pending
Debt intelligence
Pro
11 debt instruments · 4 CUSIPs · 28 unique covenants
0.50x
Debt / Equity
1.5x
Net Debt / EBITDA
$5.3B
Net debt
19%
Debt / Assets
Credit facilities & debt instruments
Revolver $1,000,000,000
364-Day Credit Agreement
Matures 2027-03-05 · Filed 2026-03-09
Floating · SOFR | EURIBOR | Term CORRA | TIBOR | SONIA | Fed Funds | Prime
unsecured
65410VBA5 65410VBB3
Revolver $2,000,000,000
FIVE YEAR CREDIT AGREEMENT
Matures 2030-03-07 · Filed 2025-03-10
Floating · SOFR | Fed Funds | Prime | EURIBOR | CORRA | TIBOR | SONIA | ESTR
Unsecured. The 'Applicable Rating Level' definition refers to 'long-term, senior unsecured, non-credit-enhanced debt'.
65410VAY4 65410VAZ13
Revolver $1,000,000,000
364-Day Credit Agreement
Matures 2026-03-06 · Filed 2025-03-10
Floating · SOFR | Federal Funds | Prime | SONIA | EURIBOR | Term CORRA | TIBOR
unsecured
65410VAW8 65410VAW81
Revolver $1,000,000,000
364-DAY CREDIT AGREEMENT
Matures 2025-03-07 · Filed 2024-03-11
Floating · SOFR | Fed Funds | Prime | EURIBOR | CORRA | TIBOR | SONIA
Unsecured
65410VAU2 65410VAV0
Revolver $1,000,000,000
CREDIT AGREEMENT Dated as of March 10, 2023
Matures 2024-03-08 · Filed 2023-03-13
Floating · SOFR | EURIBOR | CDOR | TIBOR | Federal Funds | Prime
Unsecured
65410VAS7 65410VAT5
Revolver $2,000,000,000
Credit Agreement Dated as of March 11, 2022
Matures 2027-03-11 · Filed 2022-03-14
Floating · SOFR | Federal Funds | Prime | ESTR | EURIBOR | CDOR | TIBOR
Unsecured. No collateral is described as securing the facility.
65410VAN8 65410VAP3
5 additional agreements on file
Financial covenants
Limitation on Liens - Real Estate and Buildings
does not at the time of incurrence exceed 15% of the consolidated net worth of the Company and its Subsidiaries
Aggregate book value of all real estate and buildings subject to Liens permitted by Section 6.12.7
364-Day Credit Agreement
Limitation on Liens - Construction of Headquarters
does not exceed $100,000,000
Aggregate principal amount of obligations secured by Liens in connection with construction of Company's headquarters in Beaverton, Oregon or corporate headquarters in Shanghai, China of Company's Subsidiary
364-Day Credit Agreement
Limitation on Liens - General Basket
shall not at the time of incurrence exceed the greater of $2,112,750,000.00 and 15% of the consolidated net worth of the Company and its Subsidiaries
Aggregate principal amount of Indebtedness or other obligations secured by Liens not otherwise permitted
364-Day Credit Agreement
Maximum Aggregate Book Value of Real Estate and Buildings Subject to Liens (Section 6.12.7)
≤ 15% of the consolidated net worth of the Company and its Subsidiaries
Aggregate book value of real estate and buildings subject to Liens
FIVE YEAR CREDIT AGREEMENT
Maximum Aggregate Principal Amount of Liens for Headquarters Construction (Section 6.12.9)
≤ $100,000,000
Aggregate principal amount of obligations secured by Liens for construction of Company's Beaverton, Oregon headquarters or Subsidiary's Shanghai, China corporate headquarters
FIVE YEAR CREDIT AGREEMENT
Maximum Aggregate Principal Amount of Other Permitted Liens (Section 6.12.13)
≤ the greater of $2,105,550,000.00 and 15% of the consolidated net worth of the Company and its Subsidiaries
Aggregate principal amount of Indebtedness or other obligations secured by Liens not otherwise permitted under Sections 6.12.1 through 6.12.12
FIVE YEAR CREDIT AGREEMENT
Maximum Liens on Real Estate and Buildings
≤ 15% of the consolidated net worth of the Company and its Subsidiaries
Aggregate book value of all real estate and buildings subject to Liens incurred in connection with the purchase/construction of real estate and buildings
364-Day Credit Agreement
Maximum General Liens
≤ the greater of $2,105,550,000.00 and 15% of the consolidated net worth of the Company and its Subsidiaries
Aggregate principal amount of Indebtedness or other obligations secured by Liens not otherwise permitted (excluding specific permitted categories)
364-Day Credit Agreement
20 additional covenants on file
CUSIP identifiers (4 on file)
65410VAQ1 65410VAL2 65410VAJ7 65410VAN8
Cross-default risk
11 agreements contain cross-default provisions — a covenant breach on one facility may trigger default on others.
Xavier risk radar
Pro
Covenant headroom
Low leverage — no covenants required
Earnings quality
High quality (cash conversion 1.1x)
Risk trend
Risk increasing — Global economic conditions, including volatility in inflation and interest rates
Mgmt narrative
Management tone: Cautiously optimistic
Analyst drift
Consensus Buy — targets stable
Insider sentiment
Pattern detection — 90 days needed
Signal history
Signal
DateDirectionConf.Agree.ThesisPriceType
Jul 12, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.3/10 100% NKE is in the early innings of a painful turnaround: Q4 FY26 results beat a very low bar but managem... $44.37 Sched.
Jul 11, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.4/10 75% NIKE screens closer to fairly valued than distressed at ~21x trailing earnings, but that multiple is... $44.37 Sched.
Jun 07, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.7/10 75% NKE trades at ~28x TTM P/E despite near-zero revenue growth (+0.001%) and deeply negative earnings g... $42.98 Sched.
May 31, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.6/10 75% NKE trades at 30x TTM earnings with near-zero revenue growth (0.001%), declining earnings (-34.8% Yo... $46.23 Sched.
May 24, 2026 NEUTRAL 5.4/10 100% NKE trades at ~29x TTM P/E despite near-zero revenue growth, shrinking margins (net margin collapsed... $44.67 Sched.
May 17, 2026 BEARISH 7.0/10 75% NKE is trading at a 12-year low near $41.88 with fundamental deterioration accelerating on multiple ... $41.88 Sched.
May 10, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.2/10 75% NKE trades at ~29x TTM P/E on earnings that are actively collapsing — EPS down 35% YoY in Q3 FY2026,... $44.14 Sched.
May 03, 2026 BEARISH 6.3/10 50% NKE trades at ~29x TTM P/E with earnings declining 35% YoY and revenue essentially flat, a valuation... $44.40 Sched.
Apr 24, 2026 BEARISH 7.3/10 50% NKE trades at ~29x TTM P/E despite earnings growth of -35% and near-zero revenue growth, making valu... $44.78 Event
Apr 12, 2026 BEARISH 7.1/10 75% Nike is trading near 12-year lows and just posted guidance that sent shares down over 15% in a singl... $42.62 Sched.
Showing last 10 signals
NKE NIKE Inc.
Signal
FY2026 annual report (10-K filed 2025-07-17)
INCOME STATEMENT
? Revenue
$46,309 million -9.83% YoY
? Operating income
$3,702 million
? Net income
$3,219 million
? Free cash flow
$3,268 million
? EPS (diluted)
$0.35
? Dividend per share
$1.570
Click any row to expand the plain-English explanation. Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings.
Capital intelligence
Signal
Weighted Average Cost of Capital · Return on Invested Capital · Economic Value Added
ROIC
15.98%
WACC
9.85%
🟢 VALUE CREATOR — EVA Spread: 6.13%
? WACC
9.85%
? Cost of equity
10.45%
? Cost of debt (after-tax)
4.40%
? Capital structure
E: 90.03% / D: 9.97%
? ROIC
15.98%
? EVA
$887M
? NOPAT
$2.3B
Risk-free rate: 4.25% (10Y Treasury) · Equity risk premium: 5.50% · Sources: total_debt: XBRL, operating_income: XBRL TTM (4Q sum), invested_capital: Equity + Debt - Cash
Xavier consensus signals are intelligence outputs, not investment advice. All signals are generated by a multi-model AI system and reflect public information at time of generation. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future performance. Wall Street analyst consensus sourced from public disclosures, summarized weekly. Financial data sourced from SEC EDGAR and yfinance. Insider transactions sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 4 filings. Updated Jul 12, 2026.