MSJ-100 Index
1,036.65
Signal breadth
4 Bullish 93 Neutral 3 Bearish Avg confidence 6.16 / 10
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MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation
Energy · NYSE: MPC · MSJ-100
$303.40
▲ $6.52  (▲2.20%) today
After-hours: $303.90  ▲ 0.16%
Headquarters
Findlay, OH
Employees
18,500
Founded
2001
CEO
Ms. Maryann T. Mannen
Incorporated
Delaware
Fiscal Year End
December
Analyst price target range Free
Avg target $290.65
$303 now
Bear $186 Avg $291 Bull $344
Price history Free
Volume
2.27M
Avg volume
2.35M
Open
$300.00
Day high / low
$303.69 / $296.74
Market cap
$88.6B
About this company
Free
Marathon Petroleum Corporation is a leading integrated downstream and midstream energy company. It operates one of the largest refining systems in the U.S., producing gasoline, distillates, and renewable diesel, and also manages an extensive midstream network for crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs.
Business segments
10-K
Refining & Marketing Midstream Renewable Diesel
Recent News
Loading news...
Earnings call: Q1 2026 2026
Intel
Free
May 05, 2026Confident
● Full transcript on file
Marianne Manin (Chief Executive Officer), Maria Currie (Chief Financial Officer)
Key metrics
Refineries ran at 89% utilization with nearly 100% capture, and management said this was the strongest first quarter on process safety with the lowest level of unplanned downtime this decade.[1] Independent reporting also said Q1 2026 revenue was $34.57 billion and EPS was $1.65, both above expectations.[3]
Forward guidance
Management said the company expects to continue prioritizing capital returns, highlighted by an incremental $5 billion share repurchase authorization. They also indicated continued operational discipline, with roughly 40% of full-year planned maintenance already completed in the quarter and strong refinery utilization supporting the outlook.[1]
Notable Q&A
The provided search results do not include a detailed Q&A transcript from the call, so specific analyst questions and management responses cannot be verified from the available sources.[1][4]
Surprise items
The incremental $5 billion share repurchase authorization was a notable capital-return announcement and could be supportive for the stock.[1]
Q4 2025 (Feb 03, 2026) · Optimistic Q3 2025 (Nov 05, 2025) · Optimistic
Fundamentals
Signal
52-week high / low
$303.69 / $158.00
Forward P/E
12.0×
Trailing 20.0×
Dividend
$3.91 / share
Yield 1.32%
Analysts covering
17
Avg target $290.65
Beta
0.52
vs. S&P 500
Short interest
2.9%
Float shorted
Buy
50%
Hold
39%
Sell
11%
Wall Street consensus — sourced weekly via public disclosures
Analyst coverage data sourced from public filings. Xavier analyst thesis summary available after weekly Perplexity scan completes.
Financial summary — Gemini analysis
Signal
Revenue
$132,699 million
-4.4% YoY
Operating margin
6.2%
Net income
$4,047 million
Free cash flow
$4,767 million
Dividend / share
$3.73
Total debt
$33,305 million
Cash: $3,672 million
CapEx guidance
MPC's 2026 capital investment outlook is approximately $1.5 billion, excluding capitalized interest and acquisitions. MPLX's 2026 capital investment outlook is approximately $2.7 billion, net of reimbursements and excluding capitalized interest and acquisitions, including $2.4 billion for growth and $300 million for maintenance.
Earnings quality: HIGH
Cash conversion:2.0x
Non-recurring items: Gain on sale of Rockies gathering and processing assets of $159 million, Gain on sale of interest in Ethanol Joint Venture (TAMH) of $254 million, Gain from remeasurement of existing equity investment due to BANGL Acquisition of $484 million, Legal settlements of $253 million
Source: SEC 10-K filing analyzed by Gemini 2.5 Flash · 2026-02-26
Xavier sector view:
Energy
See journal
View Energy journal ↗
Xavier's signal
NEUTRAL
Signal
Confidence 6.7 / 10  ·  75% model agreement  ·  Scheduled Jul 12, 2026
MPC is trading just below its 52-week high, but the investment case is supported by an extraordinary and non-consensus refining margin environment: the 3-2-1 crack spread just hit an all-time high driven by Russia suspending diesel exports, Middle East refinery capacity destruction, and global refined product supply lagging crude normalization. With a forward P/E of ~11.8x, MPC is cheaply valued relative to what appears to be a structurally elevated near-term earnings environment. The Forward P/E discount to the 18.7x TTM P/E implies the market is pricing in a sharp earnings normalization that the current supply shock actively contradicts.
Strongest bull case
The 3-2-1 crack spread reached an all-time high just days ago — driven by Russia suspending diesel exports, Middle East refinery damage, and global product supply lagging crude — directly benefiting MPC as the largest U.S. publicly traded refiner with 94%+ utilization and 105% margin capture. Refined product supply is expected to respond with a meaningful lag even as crude prices normalize, sustaining elevated margins into Q2 2026 earnings on August 4.
Strongest bear case
MPC is trading at $283.74, only ~1.2% below its 52-week high of $287.15 and already above the consensus analyst price target of $272.12 — meaning the stock has largely priced in the crack spread spike. Any de-escalation in Middle East tensions, OPEC+ production reversal, or demand destruction signal could rapidly compress margins and reprice the stock lower. The California AI-pricing class-action lawsuit also adds a tail risk to the retail segment.
What the market may be missing
MPLX's growing distributions are expected to fully cover MPC's dividend and standalone capex in 2026 — effectively making the refining cash flow 'free' capital return optionality on top of a self-funding midstream engine. The market continues to value MPC primarily as a cyclical refiner subject to margin mean-reversion, while the MPLX distribution floor ($2.8B+ annualized) provides a durable, fee-based earnings buffer that is structurally undervalued in the current forward P/E estimate.
Model breakdown
Signal
Atlas (Claude) — BULLISH
Meridian (GPT-4) — NEUTRAL
Grayline (Grok) — NEUTRAL
Vantage (Gemini) — NEUTRAL
msj100_MPC_20260712T003715Z
Peer comparison
Signal
MPC
current
$303.40 ▲2.2%
BKR
NEUTRAL
$57.56
HAL
NEUTRAL
$34.39
OXY
NEUTRAL
$52.89
EOG
NEUTRAL
$134.10
Recent SEC filings
Signal
P2 COND
8-K — 2026-06-29
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-06-08
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-05-15
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
P2 AUTO
8-K — 2026-05-05
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-05-04
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
CEO scorecard — Maryann T. Mannen
Signal summary
Full detail Pro
MT
Maryann T. Mannen
Chairman, President and CEO · Marathon Petroleum Corporation
CEO since 2024-08
Total compensation
$19,016,261 ▲ 32.2% YoY
Prior year: $14,388,817
Pay vs performance
Aligned
Board assessment
Say-on-pay approval
93%
Shareholder vote
Board independence
10/11 (91%)
Diversity: 55% (4 women)
Base salary$1,400,000
Bonus / incentive$3,303,300
Stock awards$13,391,322
Executive appearances
Intel
Free
Investor DayMay 12, 2026
Marathon Petroleum Q1 2026 Earnings Call Source ↗
Ms. Maryann T. Mannen (CEO) · Marathon Petroleum Corporation
CEO Maryann Mannen discussed Q1 2026 operational performance including 89% refinery utilization with nearly 100% capture, decade-low unplanned downtime, and strong refining margins driven by improved Gulf Coast and West Coast conditions and geopoliti
“Marathon's refineries ran at 89% utilization during the quarter with 'nearly 100% capture,' while the company completed roughly 40% of its planned full-year maintenance activity. The quarter marked th”
Investor DayApr 29, 2026
Marathon Petroleum 2026 Annual Shareholder Meeting Source ↗
Ms. Maryann T. Mannen (CEO) · Marathon Petroleum Corporation
Shareholders elected four Class III directors including Maryann T. Mannen and rejected proposed governance changes, expressing confidence in the existing board structure and management direction.
CEO letter to shareholders
Signal
Full letter Pro
Maryann T. Mannen 2025 Annual Report CONFIDENT

Fellow Shareholders,

In 2025, Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) demonstrated

disciplined planning, operational rigor, and enhanced commercial

execution, delivering results that underscore the strength and

potential of our business. Foundational to these results, we

realized our strongest overall process safety performance in

the last four years, reflecting our unwavering commitment to

safe, reliable and environmentally sound operations. We also

achieved our lowest OSHA recordable injury rate and strongest

environmental performance this decade. We are proud of

this progress, but we recognize that maintaining and further

improving our performance requires relentless focus. For us,

safety is not just a set of rules, but rather a culture we must

uphold, and this critical work will never be complete.

MPC generated $8.3 billion in net cash from operations that

enabled a peer-leading $4.5 billion in shareholder returns

through share repurchases and dividends. The reliability and

competitiveness of our fully integrated value chains, as well as

the depth of our commercial capabilities, enabled us to achieve

94% refining utilization and 105% margin capture for the full

year. We believe these strengths, along with expected growing

distributions from MPLX, position MPC to lead in capital return

irrespective of the market environment.

Execution of our Midstream strategy saw segment-adjusted

EBITDA grow to a record of nearly $7 billion, reaching a three-

year compound annual growth rate of 5%.

We challenge ourselves to deliver excellence in all aspects of our

business, and the energy efficiency of our operations continues

to be recognized as distinct and peer-leading. Six MPC refineries

earned U.S. Environmental Protection Agency ENERGY STAR®

certifications in 2025, tying our own, previously set industry

record for refinery certifications by a single organization in one

year; and MPLX’s Los Angeles Basin Area pipeline operations

achieved the ENERGY STAR Challenge for Industry, attaining an

energy intensity reduction surpassing the required 10%.

Throughout the year, we took intentional steps to sharpen the

capabilities that position us to deliver leading through-cycle cash

generation. Operational excellence is ingrained in how we run

our business every day, but we are never satisfied. As our 2025

capture results indicate, we have made sustained structural

improvements that drive commercial excellence and deliver

incremental value. And our strategic approach to planning,

commercial and operational execution enables us to focus on

value chain optimization that leverages the scale of our fully

integrated system across all three regions where we operate.

We see more opportunities to improve our competitiveness as

we go forward.

Value Enhancing Investments

We anticipate steady demand for our refined products and

expect demand growth will outpace the net effect of capacity

additions and rationalizations across the global refining system

through the end of the decade. While we hold conviction in this

outlook, our capital investment strategy remains disciplined. We

are reinvesting into our business to enhance competitiveness,

focused on assets with the greatest opportunities to deliver

sustained, long‑term value. At the same time, we are

strengthening the capabilities of our people to meet future

expectations, and advancing our use of technology, including

artificial intelligence, machine learning and advanced analytics, to

increase efficiency and accelerate performance improvements.

With integrated value chains and a geographically diverse asset

base, MPC is well positioned to lead in capital return through all

market cycles.

During 2025, we advanced high-return investments at refineries

in all three regions. This included progressing multi-year

efforts at our Robinson, Illinois, and Galveston Bay, Texas,

facilities, as well as executing shorter-term projects focused on

margin enhancement and cost reduction at multiple facilities.

Additionally, in the fourth quarter of 2025, we successfully

completed the multi-year utility upgrade and integration project

at our Los Angeles, California, refinery to improve reliability,

increase energy efficiency and reduce costs, enhancing the

facility’s competitive advantage and strengthening our West

Coast value chain.

In 2026, we are committed to extending our long-term

competitive position in each of our regions by lowering operating

costs, enhancing system reliability, and improving our ability to

convert lower-value inputs into the high-value products markets

continue to demand.

On the Gulf Coast, we are pursuing two new investments at

our Garyville, Louisiana, refinery. The first seeks to optimize the

refinery’s feedstock slate, improving margins by increasing crude

throughput by 30,000 barrels per day and displacing higher-

cost intermediate purchases. The second will increase product

yield flexibility to produce an additional 10,000 barrels per day

of export-grade premium gasoline, positioning us to meet strong

international demand. We expect to bring both capacities online

by the end of 2027.

In our Mid-Continent region, work is underway at our El Paso,

Texas, refinery to increase the plant’s ability to produce higher-

value specialty gasolines for local markets. We aim to bring this

capability online in the second quarter of 2026.

These capital investments target returns of 25% or more and

underscore the strength of our portfolio, our confidence in

the long-term fundamentals of the refining sector, and our

commitment to delivering durable, high-quality returns for our

shareholders.

Additionally, we plan to further expand the reach and presence

of our branded stations in target markets to support long-term

secured offtake of gasoline and diesel, drive strong value

capture, and enhance the performance of our fully integrated

value chain. This integration, from crude supply through

branded product placement, is a value driver and clear point of

differentiation versus our competitors.

Platform for Growth

The long-term fundamentals for our midstream business remain

strong, and MPLX is strategic to MPC. In the U.S., natural gas

demand is anticipated to continue growing, driven by the rapid

expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity and

rising power needs, particularly from data centers.

Over the past year, MPLX, one of the largest natural gas

processors in the U.S., expanded its Permian Basin to Gulf

Coast integrated value chain, progressed long-haul pipeline

growth to support expected increased producer activity in the

Permian, and invested in processing capacity in the Permian

and Marcellus basins in response to producer demand. At the

same time, MPLX took meaningful steps to optimize its portfolio

through the divestiture of non-core assets, ensuring future capital

deployment is aligned with the strongest return opportunities.

With projects concentrated in the Permian and Marcellus, two of

the most prolific and competitive basins in North America, 90%

of MPLX’s 2026 growth capital is directed toward its Natural Gas

and NGL Services segment. These investments are expected

to generate mid-teens returns when they come into service and

reflect our confidence in MPLX’s ability to continue capturing

value as opportunities unfold, enabling sustained, meaningful

return of capital.

In 2025, MPLX increased its quarterly distribution by 12.5%

for the second consecutive year, driving an expected

annualized cash distribution to MPC of $2.8 billion. In 2026,

we expect distributions from MPLX will fund MPC’s dividends

and standalone capital outlook. MPLX continues to target a

distribution growth rate of 12.5% over the next two years, which

translates into more than $3.5 billion in expected future annual

cash distributions to MPC. This growing distribution underscores

the value of the strategic relationship between MPC and MPLX

and supports our commitment to industry-leading capital

return. Backed by the durability of this cash flow uplift, in the

third quarter of 2025, MPC’s Board of Directors increased our

quarterly dividend 10% for the third consecutive year.

Sustainability Driven

Our approach to sustainability supports our relentless

commitment to strive for exceptional performance and

continuously improve across all aspects of our business.

We believe sustainability means advancing environmental

stewardship, empowering our people in a variety of ways,

engaging stakeholders and communities to create shared value,

and executing our work with the highest degree of integrity. It is

critical to our long-term success.

In 2025, we progressed our efforts toward achieving the

ambitious goals we have set to reduce our use of fresh water,

decrease our methane emissions intensity, and lower our

greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity. We are focused

on reducing our carbon footprint through multiple initiatives,

including energy efficiency improvements that enhance the

performance and resiliency of our assets, the expansion of our

natural gas business, and the optimization of our renewable fuels

production.

Collectively, we have earned more U.S. ENERGY STAR®

recognitions than all other refiners combined, demonstrating the

peer-leading energy efficiency of our operations as well as our

culture of continuous improvement. These ongoing advances in

energy efficiency not only reduce our environmental footprint;

they also reduce our fuel consumption, representing substantial

cost savings. Additionally, we seek to deploy emerging

technologies that reduce environmental impact while enhancing

business performance. Our renewable fuels portfolio provides us

with the opportunity to engage in broadening the diversification

of energy supplies and related technologies. In 2025, we were

one of the largest suppliers of renewable fuels in the U.S.,

delivering approximately 2.8 billion gallons of renewable fuel to

customers.

In all that we do, nothing is more important than doing it safely.

Safe, reliable and environmentally responsible operations are

the foundation of our company, and our commitment to ensuring

an incident-free, reliability-focused and injury-free workplace

is unwavering. We empower our people with resources, skills,

training and authority to make the right, safe choices every day.

Our safety diligence earned industry-wide recognition in 2025.

This included six of our refineries earning safety awards from the

American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, three of which

earned the Distinguished Safety Award, reflecting performance

at the top of the industry. In addition, MPLX received the

International Liquid Terminals Association Platinum Safety Award,

its highest safety honor, recognizing exemplary safety culture in

the liquid terminal industry.

We also take intentional steps to build and maintain strong

relationships in our communities, seeking opportunities to

create shared value with our many stakeholders. We invest in

our communities through contributions and partnerships with

charitable organizations that reflect local priorities, align with

our Core Values, and support our sustainability goals. Through

our giving and volunteerism programs, we also encourage

employees to support the organizations and community efforts

that are important to them. In 2025, community investment

contributions from the company, our employees and fundraising

partners totaled approximately $34 million, helping to make a

positive, measurable impact for our neighbors.

Looking Ahead

I am encouraged by the momentum our company continues

to build and confident in our ability to make the most of the

opportunities before us, both in the coming year and over the

long term.

Our team is committed to creating exceptional value for our

shareholders. With safety and reliability at our foundation;

operational, commercial and planning excellence embedded

across our competitive, integrated value chains; and the

expected increasing distributions from MPLX, we believe MPC is

positioned to lead in capital return through all market conditions.

We continue to prioritize the delivery of reliable, affordable

energy that supports the infrastructure, services and security that

move society forward. Our disciplined investments in Refining &

Marketing aim to further strengthen our competitiveness in each

region where we operate, while capital deployment in Midstream

is aligned with the most prolific basins in the country, building the

infrastructure that will fuel tomorrow’s energy needs.

Accessible, reliable energy sets the pace of progress in today’s

world. I am honored to lead MPC and its strategic partner, MPLX,

and proud of the work we do. Thank you for your interest in our

company.

Sincerely,

Maryann T. Mannen

Chairman, President and

Chief Executive Officer

Xavier analysis
The letter consistently highlights achievements, outlines ambitious goals, and expresses strong conviction in the company's strategy, market position, and ability to deliver value, using terms like 'peer-leading,' 'strongest,' 'confident,' and 'exceptional value.'
Strategic themes by emphasis
#1Refining & Marketing Strategy and Investments
#2Sustainability and Operational Excellence
#3Midstream (MPLX) Growth and Strategy
#4Shareholder Returns and Capital Allocation
#5Technology Adoption
16 named projects & initiatives
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency ENERGY STAR® certifications, Los Angeles Basin Area pipeline operations, ENERGY STAR Challenge for Industry, Robinson, Illinois, facility, Galveston Bay, Texas, facility, Los Angeles, California, refinery utility upgrade and integration project +10 more
7 facility, 3 program, 3 other, 2 strategic geographic area, 1 segment
Forward-looking statements
10 total: 4 quantified, 5 directional, 1 vague
Capital allocation priority
Shareholder Returns (Share Repurchases & Dividends) → Organic Growth (High-Return Investments in Refining & Midstream) → MPLX Distribution Funding (for MPC's dividends and standalone capital)
Key quotes
“For us, safety is not just a set of rules, but rather a culture we must uphold, and this critical work will never be complete.”
Emphasizes the foundational and continuous nature of safety within the company culture, positioning it as a core value rather than just a compliance metric.
“We believe these strengths, along with expected growing distributions from MPLX, position MPC to lead in capital return irrespective of the market environment.”
Highlights a key aspect of their investment thesis – the resilience and predictability of capital returns, bolstered by the strategic value of MPLX.
View 2025 Annual Report (PDF) →3 letters on file (2025, 2024, 2023) · Full history with Pro
Executive compensation
Signal
NameTitleTotal compensation
Maryann T. MannenPresident and CEO$19,016,261
Michael J. HenniganExecutive Chairman$14,107,499
John J. QuaidExecutive Vice President and CFO$5,935,241
Rick D. HesslingChief Commercial Officer$4,110,852
Molly R. BensonChief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary$4,061,293
Timothy J. AydtFormer Executive Vice President Refining$5,482,977
Source: DEF 14A proxy statement · 2026-03-16
Governance
Pro
Dual-class shares: No
Poison pill: No
Clawback policy: Yes
Stock ownership req.: Yes
Debt intelligence
Pro
13 debt instruments · 23 unique covenants
1.83x
Debt / Equity
6.7x
Interest coverage
2.3x
Net Debt / EBITDA
$28.6B
Net debt
35%
Debt / Assets
Interest coverage trend (EBITDA / Interest expense)
9.8x
24-06
6.2x
24-09
4.2x
25-03
8.3x
25-06
9.7x
25-09
5.3x
26-03
Credit facilities & debt instruments
Credit $2,000,000,000
AMENDED AND RESTATED LOAN AND SECURITY AGREEMENT
Matures 2029-07-29 · Filed 2026-05-05
Floating · SOFR | Fed Funds | Prime
Secured. The Borrower grants the Administrative Agent, for the benefit of the Secured Parties, a continuing security interest in all of the Borrower's right, title and interest in, to and under all Pool Receivables, Related Security, Collections, Lock-Boxes, Virtual Accounts, Collection Accounts and amounts on deposit therein, all rights under the Receivables Sale Agreement, and all other personal and fixture property or assets of the Borrower of every kind and nature, and all proceeds thereof.
Revolver $5,000,000,000
REVOLVING CREDIT AGREEMENT
Matures 2031-04-07 · Filed 2026-04-13
Floating · SOFR | Prime | NYFRB Rate
unsecured
Revolver $2,500,000,000
REVOLVING CREDIT AGREEMENT
Matures 2031-04-07 · Filed 2026-04-13
Floating · SOFR | Prime | Fed Funds
unsecured
Revolver $5,000,000,000
REVOLVING CREDIT AGREEMENT
Matures 2027-07-07 · Filed 2022-07-12
Floating · SOFR
unsecured
Revolver $2,000,000,000
REVOLVING CREDIT AGREEMENT dated as of July 7, 2022, among MPLX LP, the LENDERS from time to time pa
Matures 2027-07-07 · Filed 2022-07-12
Floating · SOFR | Prime | Fed Funds
unsecured
Credit $1,000,000,000
OMNIBUS AMENDMENT NO. 1 TO SECOND AMENDED AND RESTATED RECEIVABLES SALE AGREEMENT, RECEIVABLES PURCH
Matures · Filed 2020-11-06
Floating · LIBOR | Alternate Base Rate
Secured. The facility is secured by undivided percentage ownership interests in the Receivables, the Related Security, Collections with respect thereto, and all proceeds of the foregoing. The Administrative Agent has a valid and perfected first priority security interest in each Lock-Box and Collection Account.
7 additional agreements on file
Financial covenants
Borrowing Base Deficit
Aggregate Capital plus the Adjusted LC Participation Amount does not exceed the Borrowing Base
Aggregate Capital plus the Adjusted LC Participation Amount vs. Borrowing Base
AMENDED AND RESTATED LOAN AND SECURITY AGREEMENT
Maximum Delinquency Ratio
shall not exceed 1.50%
Average of Delinquency Ratios for current and two preceding calendar months
AMENDED AND RESTATED LOAN AND SECURITY AGREEMENT
Maximum Loss Ratio
shall not exceed 1.00%
Average of Loss Ratios for current and two preceding calendar months
AMENDED AND RESTATED LOAN AND SECURITY AGREEMENT
Maximum Dilution Ratio
shall not exceed 4.00%
Average of Dilution Ratios for current and two preceding calendar months
AMENDED AND RESTATED LOAN AND SECURITY AGREEMENT
Maximum Days' Sales Outstanding
shall not exceed 20.00
Average of Days' Sales Outstanding for current and two preceding calendar months
AMENDED AND RESTATED LOAN AND SECURITY AGREEMENT
Revolving Credit Agreement Financial Covenant
Marathon shall fail to comply with one or more of the Revolving Credit Agreement Financial Covenant(s).
Compliance with financial covenant(s) in the Revolving Credit Agreement
AMENDED AND RESTATED LOAN AND SECURITY AGREEMENT
Required Capital Amount Maintenance
maintain at all times the Required Capital Amount and refrain from making any dividend, distribution, redemption of capital stock or payment of any subordinated indebtedness which would cause the Required Capital Amount to cease to be so maintained
Required Capital Amount
AMENDED AND RESTATED LOAN AND SECURITY AGREEMENT
Maximum Consolidated Net Debt to Total Capitalization Ratio
≤ 0.65 to 1.00
Consolidated Net Debt / Total Capitalization
REVOLVING CREDIT AGREEMENT
15 additional covenants on file
Cross-default risk
13 agreements contain cross-default provisions — a covenant breach on one facility may trigger default on others.
Xavier risk radar
Pro
Covenant headroom
Moderate leverage — no covenants on file
Earnings quality
High quality (cash conversion 2.0x)
Risk trend
Risk increasing — Our financial results are affected by volatile refining margins, which are depen
Mgmt narrative
Management tone: Bullish
Analyst drift
Consensus Buy — targets stable
Insider sentiment
Pattern detection — 90 days needed
Signal history
Signal
DateDirectionConf.Agree.ThesisPriceType
Jul 12, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.7/10 75% MPC is trading just below its 52-week high, but the investment case is supported by an extraordinary... $283.74 Sched.
Jul 11, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.2/10 75% MPC is not obviously expensive on forward earnings, but the stock is trading essentially at its 52-w... $283.74 Sched.
Jun 07, 2026 NEUTRAL 5.6/10 100% MPC is trading essentially at or slightly above consensus analyst price targets (~$265) after a powe... $262.01 Sched.
May 31, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.0/10 75% MPC has delivered strong operational execution — a Q1 2026 EPS beat of $1.65 vs. $0.75 consensus, re... $248.77 Sched.
May 24, 2026 NEUTRAL 5.6/10 100% MPC trades at a modest 16.75x TTM P/E and an attractive 11.4x forward P/E, but the stock is already ... $254.65 Sched.
May 17, 2026 NEUTRAL 5.6/10 100% MPC has delivered genuine fundamental improvement — Q1 2026 crushed estimates with a 123% EPS beat (... $255.03 Sched.
May 10, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.6/10 50% MPC just delivered a massive Q1 2026 EPS beat (120%+ vs. consensus) driven by Iran-conflict-elevated... $244.87 Sched.
May 03, 2026 BULLISH 7.2/10 75% MPC reports Q1 2026 earnings on May 5 — tomorrow — with crack spreads surging post-Iran conflict esc... $246.15 Sched.
May 01, 2026 BULLISH 7.2/10 75% MPC reports Q1 2026 earnings on May 5 — just 4 days away — creating a binary event risk but also a c... $242.61 Sched.
Apr 12, 2026 BULLISH 7.3/10 75% MPC is trading ~13% below its 52-week high despite a structural refining margin upcycle driven by ~9... $222.62 Sched.
Showing last 10 signals
MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation
Signal
FY2026 annual report (10-K filed 2026-02-26)
INCOME STATEMENT
? Revenue
$132,699 million -4.4% YoY
? Operating income
$8,291 million
? Net income
$4,047 million
? Free cash flow
$4,767 million
? EPS (diluted)
$1.73
? Dividend per share
$3.73
Click any row to expand the plain-English explanation. Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings.
Capital intelligence
Signal
Weighted Average Cost of Capital · Return on Invested Capital · Economic Value Added
ROIC
9.29%
WACC
5.34%
🟢 VALUE CREATOR — EVA Spread: 3.96%
? WACC
5.34%
? Cost of equity
7.11%
? Cost of debt (after-tax)
0.62%
? Capital structure
E: 72.67% / D: 27.33%
? ROIC
9.29%
? EVA
$1.9B
? NOPAT
$4.5B
Risk-free rate: 4.25% (10Y Treasury) · Equity risk premium: 5.50% · Sources: total_debt: Gemini 10-K, operating_income: XBRL TTM (4Q sum), interest_expense: XBRL, invested_capital: Equity + Debt - Cash
Xavier consensus signals are intelligence outputs, not investment advice. All signals are generated by a multi-model AI system and reflect public information at time of generation. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future performance. Wall Street analyst consensus sourced from public disclosures, summarized weekly. Financial data sourced from SEC EDGAR and yfinance. Insider transactions sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 4 filings. Updated Jul 12, 2026.