MSJ-100 Index
1,036.65
Signal breadth
4 Bullish 93 Neutral 3 Bearish Avg confidence 6.16 / 10
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MO
Altria Group Inc.
Consumer Staples · NYSE: MO · MSJ-100
$70.16
▼ $1.71  (▼2.38%) today
After-hours: $70.40  ▲ 0.34%
Headquarters
Richmond, VA
Employees
5,900
Founded
1985
CEO
Mr. Salvatore Mancuso
Incorporated
Virginia
Fiscal Year End
December
Analyst price target range Free
Avg target $70.64
$70 now
Bear $59 Avg $71 Bull $82
Price history Free
Volume
5.96M
Avg volume
8.54M
Open
$71.93
Day high / low
$71.95 / $69.90
Market cap
$117.2B
About this company
Free
Altria Group, Inc. is a leading U.S. tobacco company with a portfolio of combustible and smoke-free products, including cigarettes, cigars, moist smokeless tobacco, oral nicotine pouches, and e-vapor products.
The company is focused on transitioning adult smokers to a smoke-free future and exploring new growth opportunities beyond nicotine and the U.S. market.
Business segments
10-K
smokeable products oral tobacco products e-vapor products
Recent News
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Earnings call: Q1 2026 2026
Intel
Free
Apr 30, 2026Optimistic
● Full transcript on file
Key metrics
Q1 2026 EPS of $1.32 versus $1.25 expected; revenue of $4.76B versus $4.58B expected; stock rose 6.77% after the report; management returned $1.8B to shareholders via dividends and repurchased 4.5M shares for $280M.[2]
Forward guidance
Management indicated positive FY2026 earnings momentum, with emphasis on nicotine pouch growth, retail execution, and continued share repurchases/dividends. The company also flagged ongoing regulatory pressure in e-vapor while maintaining confidence in its operating strategy.[1][2]
Notable Q&A
No Q&A transcript was available in the provided search results, so specific analyst questions and management responses could not be verified from source material.[1][2]
Surprise items
EPS and revenue beat expectations, and the market reaction was positive. Strong smokeable-products gross margin was highlighted despite volume declines, which may have reassured investors.[2]
Q4 2025 (Jan 30, 2026) · Confident
Fundamentals
Signal
52-week high / low
$74.56 / $54.70
Forward P/E
11.9×
Trailing 15.0×
Dividend
$4.24 / share
Yield 5.90%
Analysts covering
11
Avg target $70.64
Beta
0.49
vs. S&P 500
Short interest
3.1%
Float shorted
Buy
31%
Hold
54%
Sell
15%
Wall Street consensus — sourced weekly via public disclosures
Analyst coverage data sourced from public filings. Xavier analyst thesis summary available after weekly Perplexity scan completes.
Financial summary — Gemini analysis
Signal
Revenue
$23,279 USD Million
-3.1% YoY
Operating margin
49.2%
Net income
$6,947 USD Million
Free cash flow
$9,074 USD Million
Dividend / share
$4.24
Total debt
$25,709 USD Million
Cash: $4,474 USD Million
CapEx guidance
$300 million to $375 million
Earnings quality: HIGH
Cash conversion:1.3x
Non-recurring items: Net pre-tax income from Non-Participating Manufacturer (NPM) Adjustment Items of $20 million., Net pre-tax charges related to acquisition and disposition-related items of $76 million, primarily for NJOY ACE ITC exclusion order and patent infringement lawsuits., Non-cash pre-tax asset impairment charges of $2,128 million for e-vapor reporting unit goodwill and definite-lived intangible assets., Pre-tax exit and implementation costs of $56 million related to the Optimize & Accelerate Initiative.
Source: SEC 10-K filing analyzed by Gemini 2.5 Flash · 2026-02-25
Xavier sector view:
Consumer Staples
See journal
View Consumer Staples journal ↗
Xavier's signal
NEUTRAL
Signal
Confidence 6.2 / 10  ·  100% model agreement  ·  Scheduled Jun 07, 2026
MO is trading at $72.19, which is above the analyst consensus price target of $70.36 and within ~3.2% of its 52-week high of $74.56 — both meaningful headwinds to near-term upside. The stock's low beta (0.50) and upcoming ex-dividend date of June 15 provide short-term technical support, but the stock has already run ~22% YTD and is priced above most sell-side targets, leaving limited edge on the long side over the next 5 trading days. Leadership transition risk (new CEO/CFO appointed May 2026) adds near-term uncertainty.
Strongest bull case
The June 15 ex-dividend date ($1.06/share, ~5.87% annualized yield) creates a near-term mechanical floor as income investors accumulate shares ahead of the record date, while MO's defensive low-beta profile offers relative safe-haven appeal in the current risk-off macro environment where the S&P 500 fell 2.65% on the same day MO gained 2.25%.
Strongest bear case
MO is trading ~2.6% above the analyst consensus price target of $70.36, meaning the street sees essentially no upside from current levels; Barclays' price target is only $64 — roughly 11% below current price — and the Tobacco industry sits in the bottom 16% of Zacks industry rankings, while illicit e-vapor products continue to capture over 60% of the market, directly undermining NJOY and on! revenue ramp potential.
What the market may be missing
The May 2026 simultaneous CEO and CFO transition is a non-trivial near-term governance risk that the market appears to be discounting entirely; leadership changes at tobacco companies with complex regulatory pipelines (FDA PMTA submissions for on! PLUS, Ploom heated tobacco) can introduce strategic delays or shifts in capital allocation priorities that are not yet reflected in consensus estimates ahead of the Q2 July 30 earnings report.
Model breakdown
Signal
Atlas (Claude) — NEUTRAL
Meridian (GPT-4) — NEUTRAL
Grayline (Grok) — NEUTRAL
Vantage (Gemini) — NEUTRAL
msj100_MO_20260607T023001Z
Peer comparison
Signal
MO
current
$70.16 ▼2.4%
KR
NEUTRAL
$60.54
PM
NEUTRAL
$181.62
COST
NEUTRAL
$916.25
KO
NEUTRAL
$83.49
Recent SEC filings
Signal
LOG
4 — 2026-05-28
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-05-28
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-05-18
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-05-18
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-05-18
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
CEO scorecard — William F. Gifford, Jr.
Signal summary
Full detail Pro
WF
William F. Gifford, Jr.
Chief Executive Officer, Altria Group, Inc. · Altria Group Inc.
CEO since April 2020
Total compensation
$24,561,180 ▼ 8.3% YoY
Prior year: $26,788,612
Pay vs performance
Aligned
Board assessment
Say-on-pay approval
95%
Shareholder vote
Board independence
9/10 (90%)
Diversity: 70% (5 women)
Base salary$1,450,000
Bonus / incentive$4,450,000
Stock awards$9,350,079
Executive appearances
Intel
Free
Investor DayMay 14, 2026
Altria Annual Meeting of Shareholders Source ↗
Mr. William F. Gifford Jr. (CEO) · Virtual
William F. Gifford Jr. concluded his tenure as CEO at the virtual Annual Meeting, highlighting achievements in dividend growth and Altria's partial pivot to smoke-free products. The meeting marked the transition to new CEO Salvatore Mancuso and CFO H
CEO letter to shareholders
Signal
Full letter Pro
William F. Gifford, Jr. 2025 Annual Report OPTIMISTIC

DEAR FELLOW SHAREHOLDERS

2025 was another year of continued momentum for Altria. We made meaningful progress advancing our smoke-free portfolio, delivered solid financial results and returned significant cash to you, our valued shareholders. Our teams executed with discipline in a complex environment across our traditional tobacco businesses while continuing to invest in our smoke-free products and Vision.

Advancing Our Vision.

The potential for tobacco harm reduction in the U.S. remains significant with more than half of U.S. nicotine consumers now choosing smoke-free products. In 2025, our companies achieved several milestones that we believe position us for sustained success in the evolving U.S. nicotine space.

Helix grew on! reported shipment volume to more than 177 million cans while on! retail share of the oral tobacco category reached 8.2%. Notably, Helix received marketing authorization from the FDA for certain on! PLUS products and submitted PMTAs for on! PLUS in six additional flavor varieties across three nicotine strengths. We believe on! PLUS is a differentiated, premium product that is well positioned to meet adult consumer preferences and support continued growth for Helix.

In heated tobacco, Horizon, our joint venture with JT Group, submitted a combined PMTA and modified risk tobacco product application to the FDA for Ploom and Marlboro heated tobacco sticks. Our teams continue to advance Ploom's go-to-market plans, and we look forward to engaging smokers with this innovative product.

Internationally, we expanded our position in the fastest-growing smoke-free category, nicotine pouches. In 2025, on!, on! PLUS and FUMi competed across attractive and growing markets through e-commerce and targeted retail distribution. Early results are encouraging and are providing valuable insights to inform our domestic and international smoke-free product strategies.

In e-vapor, we are working on a pipeline of products designed to meet evolving adult consumer preferences. We believe that responsible participation with products that resonate with adult consumers supports our Vision and broader smoke-free strategy. Until meaningful progress is made to address the illicit market and increase product authorizations, we plan to take a disciplined approach to our investments in the e-vapor category.

Achieving the full promise of tobacco harm reduction requires a fully-enforced, science-based regulatory framework. In 2025, we continued to advocate for increased FDA authorization of smoke-free products and meaningful enforcement against illicit products. We were encouraged by increased engagement and action from federal agencies and government officials throughout the year.

While this is early progress, more action is needed. Sustained enforcement and a predictable regulatory framework are essential to transition smokers to smoke-free alternatives and create a level playing field for all manufacturers.

Resilient Traditional Tobacco Businesses.

Our traditional tobacco businesses demonstrated continued resilience and delivered strong financial performance in 2025. For the full year, the smokeable products segment contributed over $11 billion in adjusted OCI* and expanded adjusted OCI margins by 1.8 percentage points to 63.4%*. These results were supported by strong net price realization and effective cost management. Marlboro remained the dominant leader in the premium segment, and PM USA's total portfolio approach enabled it to compete effectively across price tiers.

Our oral tobacco products segment financials remained strong, driven by Copenhagen, the leader in MST. Segment adjusted OCI grew by 1.3%* and adjusted OCI margins expanded to 67.9%*.

Strong Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns.

We grew full-year adjusted diluted earnings per share by 4.4%* and continued our long-standing commitment to deliver shareholder value by returning approximately $8 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases combined. Our Board raised the dividend for the 60th time in 56 years. At year-end 2025, we had $1 billion remaining under our current $2 billion share repurchase program, which expires at the end of 2026.

Leadership Transition.

After a distinguished career of over 30 years with the Altria family of companies, William “Billy” Gifford, our CEO, has decided to retire, effective at the conclusion of the 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders. Billy has guided Altria through a period of significant change, reinforcing our financial strength, sharpening our strategic focus and advancing our Vision. His collaborative leadership style built a stronger organization that we believe will continue to forge our path forward in Moving Beyond Smoking®. The Board thanks Billy for his leadership, integrity and unwavering commitment to Altria. The Board looks forward to driving continued progress toward our Vision under Sal Mancuso's leadership.

Looking Forward.

The opportunities and challenges in the U.S. nicotine space remain dynamic, but our priorities are unchanged: responsibly deliver smoke-free alternatives, defend and grow the profitability of our traditional tobacco businesses over the long term, allocate capital with discipline and continue returning substantial cash to shareholders.

We are confident in our path forward, and we thank you for your continued support of Altria.

Kathryn B. McQuade
Chair of the Board

William F. Gifford, Jr.
Chief Executive Officer

Xavier analysis
The letter consistently uses positive language like 'continued momentum,' 'meaningful progress,' 'solid financial results,' and expresses confidence in the company's path forward despite acknowledging a 'complex environment.'
Strategic themes by emphasis
#1Advancing Our Vision (Smoke-free & Harm Reduction Portfolio)
#2Resilient Traditional Tobacco Businesses
#2Strong Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns
#3Leadership Transition
#3Looking Forward (Future Priorities)
12 named projects & initiatives
on!, on! PLUS, Helix, Horizon, Ploom, Marlboro heated tobacco sticks +6 more
7 product, 4 other, 1 partnership
Forward-looking statements
10 total: 0 quantified, 7 directional, 3 vague
Capital allocation priority
Shareholder Returns (Dividends & Buybacks) → Investing in Smoke-Free Products & Vision → Defend and Grow Traditional Tobacco Businesses → Disciplined Capital Allocation
Key quotes
“2025 was another year of continued momentum for Altria. We made meaningful progress advancing our smoke-free portfolio, delivered solid financial results and returned significant cash to you, our valu”
Summarizes the key achievements and positive performance for the year, hitting on strategic progress, financial results, and shareholder returns.
“The potential for tobacco harm reduction in the U.S. remains significant with more than half of U.S. nicotine consumers now choosing smoke-free products.”
Highlights the large market opportunity for the company's core strategic shift towards harm reduction.
View 2025 Annual Report (PDF) →4 letters on file (2025, 2024, 2023, 2022) · Full history with Pro
Executive compensation
Signal
NameTitleTotal compensation
William F. Gifford, Jr.Chief Executive Officer, Altria Group, Inc.$24,561,180
Salvatore MancusoExecutive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Altria Group, Inc.$7,616,750
Jody L. BegleyExecutive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, Altria Group, Inc.$10,837,792
Heather A. NewmanSenior Vice President, Chief Strategy and Growth Officer, Altria Group, Inc.$6,157,074
Charles N. WhitakerSenior Vice President, Chief Human Resources Officer & Chief Compliance Officer, Altria Group, Inc.$5,994,559
Source: DEF 14A proxy statement · 2026-04-02
Governance
Pro
Dual-class shares: No
Poison pill: No
Clawback policy: Yes
Stock ownership req.: Yes
Shareholder proposals
Election of Directors
FOR
Pending
Ratification of the Selection of Independent Registered Public Accounting Firm
FOR
Pending
Non-Binding Advisory Vote to Approve the Compensation of Altria’s Named Executiv
FOR
Pending
Debt intelligence
Pro
9 debt instruments · 3 unique covenants
-7.66x
Debt / Equity
1.9x
Net Debt / EBITDA
$21.1B
Net debt
71%
Debt / Assets
Credit facilities & debt instruments
Revolver
5-Year Revolving Credit Agreement
Matures 2029-10-24 · Filed 2025-07-23
Revolver $3,000,000,000
U.S.$3,000,000,000 CREDIT AGREEMENT relating to a 5-YEAR REVOLVING CREDIT FACILITY
Matures 2028-10-24 · Filed 2023-10-25
Floating · Adjusted Term SOFR | Adjusted Daily Simple SOFR | Base Rate (Prime Rate, NYFRB Rate, Adjusted Term SOFR)
Unsecured
Credit $3,000,000,000
U.S.$3,000,000,000 5-Year Revolving Credit Agreement
Matures 2025-08-01 · Filed 2022-08-17
Floating · SOFR (Term SOFR, Daily Simple SOFR), Prime, NYFRB Rate
unsecured
Credit US$3,000,000,000
5-Year Revolving Credit Agreement
Matures 2024-08-01 · Filed 2021-08-18
Floating · LIBOR | SOFR | Term SOFR | Daily Simple SOFR
Revolver US$3,000,000,000
5-Year Revolving Credit Agreement
Matures · Filed 2019-01-31
Term Loan $14,600,000,000
U.S.$ 14,600,000,000 TERM LOAN AGREEMENT
Matures 2019-12-19 · Filed 2018-12-20
Floating · LIBOR | Prime | Fed Funds
unsecured
3 additional agreements on file
Financial covenants
Maintenance of Ratio of Consolidated EBITDA to Consolidated Interest Expense
≥ 4.0 to 1.0
Consolidated EBITDA / Consolidated Interest Expense
U.S.$3,000,000,000 CREDIT AGREEMENT relating to a
Minimum Consolidated EBITDA to Consolidated Interest Expense Ratio
not less than 4.0 to 1.0
Consolidated EBITDA / Consolidated Interest Expense
U.S.$3,000,000,000 5-Year Revolving Credit Agreeme
Minimum Consolidated EBITDA to Consolidated Interest Expense Ratio
≥ 4.0 to 1.0
Consolidated EBITDA / Consolidated Interest Expense
5-Year Revolving Credit Agreement
Cross-default risk
4 agreements contain cross-default provisions — a covenant breach on one facility may trigger default on others.
Xavier risk radar
Pro
Covenant headroom
No financial covenants on file
Earnings quality
High quality (cash conversion 1.3x)
Risk trend
Risk increasing — The most significant risk stems from the inability to successfully commercialize
Mgmt narrative
Management tone: Cautiously optimistic
Analyst drift
Consensus Hold — watch for drift
Insider sentiment
Pattern detection — 90 days needed
Signal history
Signal
DateDirectionConf.Agree.ThesisPriceType
Jun 07, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.2/10 100% MO is trading at $72.19, which is above the analyst consensus price target of $70.36 and within ~3.2... $72.19 Sched.
May 31, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.2/10 75% MO just suffered a sharp 3.3% single-session decline on elevated volume (13.1M vs. 9.4M avg), is dow... $69.58 Sched.
May 24, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.2/10 75% MO is trading at 99% of its 52-week high with current price ($73.90) materially above the analyst co... $73.90 Sched.
May 17, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.2/10 75% MO is trading at ~98% of its 52-week high ($73.09 vs. $74.56 high) and meaningfully above the consen... $73.09 Sched.
May 10, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.3/10 75% MO's Q1 2026 EPS beat ($1.32 vs $1.25 est.) and reaffirmed full-year guidance provided a strong post... $68.12 Sched.
May 03, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.3/10 100% MO just printed a strong Q1 2026 beat (EPS $1.32 vs. $1.25 est., revenue $4.76B vs. $4.58B est.) and... $74.55 Sched.
Apr 12, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.5/10 50% MO trades at a meaningful discount to intrinsic value with a forward P/E of ~11.6x, a ~6.2% dividend... $67.38 Sched.
Showing last 7 signals
MO Altria Group Inc.
Signal
FY2026 annual report (10-K filed 2026-02-25)
INCOME STATEMENT
? Revenue
$23,279 USD Million -3.1% YoY
? Operating income
$9,899 USD Million
? Net income
$6,947 USD Million
? Free cash flow
$9,074 USD Million
? EPS (diluted)
$1.30
? Dividend per share
$4.24
Click any row to expand the plain-English explanation. Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings.
Capital intelligence
Signal
Weighted Average Cost of Capital · Return on Invested Capital · Economic Value Added
ROIC
47.31%
WACC
5.81%
🟢 VALUE CREATOR — EVA Spread: 41.50%
? WACC
5.81%
? Cost of equity
6.97%
? Cost of debt (after-tax)
0.30%
? Capital structure
E: 82.65% / D: 17.35%
? ROIC
47.31%
? EVA
$7.4B
? NOPAT
$8.5B
Risk-free rate: 4.25% (10Y Treasury) · Equity risk premium: 5.50% · Sources: total_debt: XBRL, operating_income: XBRL TTM (4Q sum), interest_expense: Derived (OI - PTI), invested_capital: Equity + Debt - Cash
Xavier consensus signals are intelligence outputs, not investment advice. All signals are generated by a multi-model AI system and reflect public information at time of generation. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future performance. Wall Street analyst consensus sourced from public disclosures, summarized weekly. Financial data sourced from SEC EDGAR and yfinance. Insider transactions sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 4 filings. Updated Jun 07, 2026.