MSJ-100 Index
1,036.65
Signal breadth
4 Bullish 93 Neutral 3 Bearish Avg confidence 6.16 / 10
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HD
The Home Depot Inc.
Consumer Discretionary · NYSE: HD · MSJ-100
$337.74
▲ $0.63  (▲0.19%) today
After-hours: $337.94  ▲ 0.06%
Headquarters
Atlanta, GA
Employees
470,000
Founded
1978
CEO
Mr. Edward P. Decker
Incorporated
Delaware
Fiscal Year End
February
Analyst price target range Free
Avg target $370.34
$338 now
Bear $310 Avg $370 Bull $430
Price history Free
Volume
2.81M
Avg volume
4.84M
Open
$339.52
Day high / low
$341.75 / $336.56
Market cap
$336.8B
About this company
Free
The Home Depot is the world's largest home improvement retailer, offering a wide range of products like building materials, lawn and garden, and decor, along with installation and rental services. The company also serves professional customers through its SRS and GMS acquisitions, distributing specialty building products such as roofing, landscape supplies, and interior construction materials.
Recent News
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Earnings call: Q1 FY2026 FY2026
Intel
Free
May 20, 2026Optimistic
● Full transcript on file
Ted Decker (Chair, President and CEO), Richard McPhail (Executive Vice President and CFO)
Key metrics
Home Depot reported Q1 EPS of $3.43, above the consensus estimate of $3.41, and revenue of $41.77 billion, up 4.8% year over year.[1]
Forward guidance
Home Depot maintained its full-year outlook, with management indicating that comparable sales growth and earnings performance should continue to be supported by a resilient core repair-and-maintenance demand environment. Management emphasized that the company is still operating through an uncertain macro backdrop and continues to plan conservativel
Notable Q&A
Analyst questions focused on demand trends, the sustainability of ticket growth, and whether the company was seeing any meaningful change in homeowner spending behavior; management responded that customer engagement remained healthy and that core categories tied to projects and repairs continued to
Surprise items
The quarter showed a modest EPS beat and revenue growth despite a mixed housing backdrop; the main notable point was that Home Depot maintained guidance rather than raising it, which may have been viewed as prudent rather than a major positive surprise.[1]
Q1 2026 (May 19, 2026) · Cautious Q1 FY2027 (May 19, 2026) · Cautious
Fundamentals
Signal
52-week high / low
$426.75 / $289.10
Forward P/E
21.0×
Trailing 24.0×
Dividend
$9.32 / share
Yield 2.76%
Analysts covering
32
Avg target $370.34
Beta
0.95
vs. S&P 500
Short interest
1.5%
Float shorted
Buy
58%
Hold
42%
Sell
0%
Wall Street consensus — sourced weekly via public disclosures
Analyst coverage data sourced from public filings. Xavier analyst thesis summary available after weekly Perplexity scan completes.
Financial summary — Gemini analysis
Signal
Revenue
$164,683 million
3.2% YoY
Operating margin
12.7%
Net income
$14,156 million
Free cash flow
$12,646 million
Dividend / share
$9.20
Total debt
$55,772 million
Cash: $1,389 million
CapEx guidance
$4 billion in fiscal 2026, approximately 2.5% of projected fiscal 2026 net sales
Earnings quality: HIGH
Cash conversion:1.2x
Non-recurring items: Non-recurring legal-related benefit recognized during fiscal 2024 within Primary segment, impacting SG&A in fiscal 2025.
Source: SEC 10-K filing analyzed by Gemini 2.5 Flash · 2026-03-18
Xavier sector view:
Consumer Discretionary
See journal
View Consumer Discretionary journal ↗
Xavier's signal
NEUTRAL
Signal
Confidence 6.2 / 10  ·  100% model agreement  ·  Scheduled Jul 12, 2026
HD trades at ~24x TTM P/E with earnings in decline (-4.4% FY2026) and guidance of only flat-to-2% comparable sales growth — a valuation that demands growth it isn't delivering. The stock sits ~20% below its 52-week high and ~8% below analyst consensus target, offering modest upside, but structural headwinds (frozen housing turnover, DIY fatigue, rising cyclicality from the pro-contractor pivot) cap near-term re-rating potential. No imminent catalyst exists to bridge the gap between current price and targets within a 5-trading-day window.
Strongest bull case
Q1 FY2026 adjusted EPS of $3.43 beat estimates of $3.30, guidance was reaffirmed, tariff exposure is largely manageable (~3% SKU pricing impact) with over 50% of products domestically sourced, and the stock is materially off its 52-week high — providing a value floor that limits sharp downside.
Strongest bear case
Housing turnover remains at multi-decade lows, management explicitly flagged that 'larger discretionary projects remain under pressure,' adjusted EPS is declining year-over-year ($3.43 vs. $3.56 in the prior-year quarter), the PEG ratio is a stretched ~4x, options implied volatility sits in the 72nd percentile, and Wolfe Research recently downgraded to Hold noting the stock 'remains in limbo' — all pointing to a range-bound or drifting-lower tape in the near term.
What the market may be missing
The strategic pivot to professional contractors is being sold as a growth driver, but it simultaneously increases HD's sensitivity to housing-cycle volatility — the very cycle that is most impaired right now. The consensus is not fully pricing the margin compression risk embedded in the GMS acquisition mix shift (already a 75bps gross margin headwind) compounding with rising fuel costs and potential tariff re-escalation, making the earnings recovery timeline more uncertain than the buy-heavy analyst consensus implies.
Model breakdown
Signal
Atlas (Claude) — NEUTRAL
Meridian (GPT-4) — NEUTRAL
Grayline (Grok) — NEUTRAL
Vantage (Gemini) — NEUTRAL
msj100_HD_20260712T003715Z
Peer comparison
Signal
HD
current
$337.74 ▲0.2%
TJX
NEUTRAL
$151.34
NKE
NEUTRAL
$44.37
TSLA
NEUTRAL
$407.76
AMZN
NEUTRAL
$245.34
Recent SEC filings
Signal
LOG
4 — 2026-05-29
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
8-K — 2026-05-26
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-05-26
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-05-26
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-05-26
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
CEO scorecard — Edward P. Decker
Signal summary
Full detail Pro
EP
Edward P. Decker
Chair, President and Chief Executive Officer · The Home Depot Inc.
CEO since 2022-03
Total compensation
$16,191,127 ▲ 4.0% YoY
Prior year: $15,574,678
Pay vs performance
Aligned
Board assessment
Say-on-pay approval
94%
Shareholder vote
Board independence
11/12 (92%)
Diversity: 50% (4 women)
Base salary$1,400,000
Bonus / incentive$2,657,631
Stock awards$9,612,251
CEO letter to shareholders
Signal
Full letter Pro
Ted Decker 2025 Annual Report CONFIDENT

Dear Shareholders:

Fiscal 2025: A Year of Continued Focus on our Growth Strategy

During fiscal 2025 our teams executed well despite several dynamics pressuring housing and home improvement demand. Fiscal 2025 was also a year of progress on our growth strategy, as we invested in a number of areas across the business to position ourselves for continued success.

During fiscal 2025, total sales grew by $5.2 billion or 3.2 percent to $164.7 billion, compared to fiscal 2024. Fiscal 2025 comparable sales growth was 0.3 percent for the total Company and 0.5 percent in the U.S. Our fiscal 2025 net earnings were $14.2 billion, and adjusted (1) earnings per diluted share decreased 3.6 percent to $14.69.

Focused on our Growth Strategy

Over the last few years, we have successfully managed through a dynamic environment, including elevated interest rates, pressured housing affordability, and general economic uncertainty. Throughout this period our growth strategy has remained unchanged: drive our core and culture, deliver a frictionless interconnected experience, and win with the Pro. And everything we do is rooted in our enduring set of values and empowering culture. Our objectives to grow market share and deliver shareholder value also remain unchanged.

Drive our Core and Culture

Our stores remain the core of our business, and we will continue to invest in our associates and store experience to deliver the best customer experience in home improvement. Knowledgeable associates and on shelf availability are critical to the store experience, and we are empowering our associates to drive sales by enhancing training and product knowledge, optimizing processes, simplifying tasks, and leveraging technology to drive a better customer experience. Customers expect us to have a broad assortment of quality products and our best-in-class merchandising team partners with leading suppliers to deliver innovation, exclusivity, and everyday value.

Nothing speaks to the vitality of our business more than our commitment to open new stores. During our Investor and Analyst Conference in 2023, we announced plans to build 80 new stores over a five-year period. We are building these stores in geographic areas that have experienced significant population growth, or where we need to relieve pressure on existing high-volume stores. The performance in the 37 new stores we have built over the past three years is exceeding our expectations, which is why at our 2025 Investor and Analyst Conference we announced that following the completion of our approximately 80 new stores plan in 2027, we anticipate that we will continue to build 15 to 20 stores per year for the foreseeable future.

While our stores are the center of our ecosystem, it's our orange-blooded associates and culture that bring them to life every day. Our Culture has guided us as we revolutionized home improvement, and it will continue to guide us as our business evolves. Our Values Wheel is our North Star, and our Inverted Pyramid reminds us who matters most - our customers and our associates.

Deliver a Frictionless Interconnected Experience

We know our customers navigate between our physical and digital assets and it is our intent to deliver a frictionless interconnected customer experience regardless of how our customers choose to engage and shop with us. This year, a key focus area was speed of delivery. Through investments in inventory, technology, and our nearly 200 last-mile distribution assets, we achieved the fastest delivery speeds in our history. We accomplished this by using ship from best location, a proprietary algorithm that looks across all of our distribution assets, including our stores, to optimize speed, determining when, where and how to most effectively ship products to our customers. Despite our delivery volumes' rapid growth in 2025, over half of our deliveries on products we stock are now same day or next day.

In addition to the progress we have made around delivery, we have made similar strides with the customer experience across our digital assets by leveraging technology. These investments include everything from search, recommendations, compatibility, cart building, catalog data, sourcing logic, delivery route intelligence, to post-purchase support, and more. One of our investments, Magic Apron, is a suite of proprietary generative AI products that help our customers with their online shopping journey. Customers use Magic Apron for that same type of orange apron in-store assistance online, whether it is a product or project inquiry, customer feedback, or as a shopping assistant. As a result, Magic Apron has improved the customer experience meaningfully, which is translating into higher levels of conversion and sales.

These enhancements are contributing to the double-digit growth we have seen in our online business, supported by the highest conversion rates in company history, an increase in customer satisfaction, and incremental spend across channels with customers who are more frequently engaging with our enhanced capabilities. We will continue to invest to drive growth across the business, focusing on the site experience, delivery experience, and every aspect of the interconnected shopping experience.

Win the Pro

We have an enormous opportunity to grow our share of the Pro's wallet. Nearly all Pros shop at The Home Depot, and we are building differentiated capabilities to better serve them. Our stores have always been a destination for Pros and our value proposition has been simple - we have the brands, categories and quantities that Pros need, at everyday low prices, conveniently located in one store location. Our Pros' expectations have evolved over the years and we have continued to invest to enhance the store experience. We are focused on ensuring we have the brands our Pros want and in the quantities they need, while developing incremental capabilities to better serve them, like investing in a unified Pro team that helps drive engagement. The beauty of these investments is that they enhance the shopping experience for all Pros, whether they shop our stores for all their project needs or for urgent and fill-in occasions.

We also have a significant growth opportunity ahead of us with the medium to large Pro that shops across categories and works on complex projects. At The Home Depot, we can simplify their experience by reducing complexity, including the number of suppliers they need to transact with, saving them time and money. While we are investing across our entire ecosystem of products and services, there are six capabilities these larger Pros expect that we have not typically offered in the past. These include a professional sales force, enhanced delivery capabilities, trade credit, preferred pricing programs, order management, and a best-in-class digital experience. Today we have many of these capabilities in some of our top Pro markets, which are all in different stages of maturity. And as our Pros utilize our ecosystem of capabilities, we see increased engagement and incremental spend.

In addition, with SRS, we are now able to better serve the specialty trades Pros. These are Pros who tend to have a narrower focus and need very deep assortments in their specific categories. SRS is an extraordinary specialty platform, with leading market positions and growth opportunities across all of their verticals. Our combined capabilities create greater value by sharing each other's respective product catalogs, leveraging each other's logistics and supply chain and each other's competitive advantages. In fiscal 2025, SRS completed the acquisition of GMS, adding a highly complementary and adjacent vertical to SRS's business with differentiated capabilities, product categories and customer relationships. SRS and GMS are already finding ways to better serve their customers and grow sales together. By bundling GMS's interior products with SRS's exterior offerings, we can now provide customers more solutions, increasing wallet share and customer retention. Together, these Pro assets and capabilities represent an unrivaled Pro ecosystem. And as we continue to align all of our assets, we drive growth. By coordinating sales teams and customer lists, product catalogs and inventory, and supply chains and delivery assets, we are able to cross-sell larger Pros with broader product offerings and service capabilities all across the country.

Throughout the year our associates displayed strength, resilience and engagement, and I want to thank them and our supplier partners for their hard work and dedication to serving our customers and communities.

As we look to fiscal 2026, we will continue to leverage our distinct competitive advantages to capitalize on compelling growth opportunities in our space. The investments we have made and will continue to make in differentiated capabilities throughout the business will deliver a value proposition that we believe is unique in the marketplace, allowing us to grow faster than the market over time.

Ted Decker

Xavier analysis
The CEO expresses confidence in the company's execution and strategy despite market pressures, highlights strong performance metrics, and articulates clear plans for future growth and competitive advantages.
Strategic themes by emphasis
#1Growth Strategy & Investments
#2Win with the Pro Customer
#3Frictionless Interconnected Customer Experience
#4Drive Core and Culture (Associates & Values)
7 named projects & initiatives
Magic Apron, Values Wheel, Inverted Pyramid, SRS, GMS, ship from best location +1 more
3 other, 2 acquisition, 1 product, 1 technology
Forward-looking statements
8 total: 1 quantified, 5 directional, 2 vague
Capital allocation priority
Organic Growth (New Stores, Capabilities, Technology) → Strategic Acquisitions (SRS, GMS) → Associate & Culture Investment
Key quotes
“Throughout this period our growth strategy has remained unchanged: drive our core and culture, deliver a frictionless interconnected experience, and win with the Pro.”
This sentence concisely outlines the three pillars of Home Depot's enduring growth strategy.
“Nothing speaks to the vitality of our business more than our commitment to open new stores.”
This highlights the CEO's conviction in physical retail expansion as a core growth driver and a sign of business health.
View 2025 Annual Report (PDF) →
Executive compensation
Signal
NameTitleTotal compensation
Edward P. DeckerChair, President and Chief Executive Officer$16,191,127
Ann-Marie CampbellSenior Executive Vice President$7,452,600
Hector A. PadillaFormer Executive Vice President – U.S. Stores and Operations$6,418,376
Richard V. McPhailExecutive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer$6,224,296
Fahim SiddiquiFormer Executive Vice President and Chief Information Officer$5,640,440
William D. BastekExecutive Vice President – Merchandising$5,383,781
Source: DEF 14A proxy statement · 2026-04-07
Governance
Pro
Dual-class shares: No
Poison pill: No
Clawback policy: Yes
Stock ownership req.: Yes
Shareholder proposals
Report on Objective Evaluation of Recycling-Related Plastics Targets
AGAINST
Pending
Report on Packaging Policies for Plastics
AGAINST
Pending
Report on Customer Data Privacy Risks
AGAINST
Pending
Independent Board Chairman
AGAINST
Pending
Debt intelligence
Pro
4 debt instruments · 9 unique covenants
3.86x
Debt / Equity
8.7x
Interest coverage
2.0x
Net Debt / EBITDA
$48.0B
Net debt
47%
Debt / Assets
Credit facilities & debt instruments
Revolver $10,000,000,000
REVOLVING CREDIT FACILITY AGREEMENT
Matures 2025-05-06 · Filed 2024-08-20
Floating · SOFR | Prime | Fed Funds
unsecured
Revolver $1,000,000,000
THREE-YEAR REVOLVING CREDIT FACILITY AGREEMENT
Matures 2027-05-07 · Filed 2024-08-20
Floating · SOFR
Unsecured
Revolver $3,500,000,000
364-DAY REVOLVING CREDIT FACILITY AGREEMENT
Matures 2025-05-06 · Filed 2024-08-20
Floating · SOFR | Prime | Fed Funds
Unsecured. The 'Ratings' definition refers to 'senior, unsecured, long-term indebtedness', and there is no mention of collateral or security interests granted for this facility.
Revolver $3,500,000,000
$3,500,000,000 364-DAY REVOLVING CREDIT FACILITY AGREEMENT
Matures 2021-03-22 · Filed 2020-05-27
Floating · LIBOR | Prime | NYFRB Rate
Unsecured
Financial covenants
Limitation on Liens (General Basket)
not to exceed 12.5% of Consolidated Net Tangible Assets
Debt or other obligations secured by Liens
REVOLVING CREDIT FACILITY AGREEMENT
Limitation on Liens (Aggregate Basket)
not to exceed 15% of Consolidated Net Tangible Assets
Aggregate Debt secured by Liens permitted by clauses (a) through (i) and (m) of Section 5.03
REVOLVING CREDIT FACILITY AGREEMENT
Limitation on Liens (Aggregate Debt Secured by Liens)
≤ 15%
Aggregate Debt secured by Liens / Consolidated Net Tangible Assets
THREE-YEAR REVOLVING CREDIT FACILITY AGREEMENT
Limitation on Liens (Other Permitted Liens)
≤ 12.5%
Other Debt secured by Liens / Consolidated Net Tangible Assets
THREE-YEAR REVOLVING CREDIT FACILITY AGREEMENT
Maximum Secured Debt (General Basket)
≤ 12.5%
Debt secured by Liens / Consolidated Net Tangible Assets
364-DAY REVOLVING CREDIT FACILITY AGREEMENT
Maximum Total Secured Debt
≤ 15%
Total Debt secured by Liens (including specific permitted categories) / Consolidated Net Tangible Assets
364-DAY REVOLVING CREDIT FACILITY AGREEMENT
Maximum Existing Secured Debt
not exceeding $1,500,000,000
Aggregate principal amount of Debt for borrowed money and capital leases secured by Liens existing on the agreement date
$3,500,000,000 364-DAY REVOLVING CREDIT FACILITY A
Maximum Other Secured Debt
not to exceed 12.5% of Consolidated Net Tangible Assets
Aggregate principal amount of Debt (excluding Debt under this agreement) secured by Liens not otherwise permitted by specific paragraphs (a)-(i) of Section 5.03
$3,500,000,000 364-DAY REVOLVING CREDIT FACILITY A
1 additional covenant on file
Cross-default risk
4 agreements contain cross-default provisions — a covenant breach on one facility may trigger default on others.
Xavier risk radar
Pro
Covenant headroom
High leverage — no covenants on file
Earnings quality
High quality (cash conversion 1.2x)
Risk trend
Risk increasing — Adverse conditions in or uncertainty regarding the housing and home improvement
Mgmt narrative
Management tone: Cautiously optimistic
Analyst drift
Consensus Buy — targets stable
Insider sentiment
Pattern detection — 90 days needed
Signal history
Signal
DateDirectionConf.Agree.ThesisPriceType
Jul 12, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.2/10 100% HD trades at ~24x TTM P/E with earnings in decline (-4.4% FY2026) and guidance of only flat-to-2% co... $343.30 Sched.
Jul 11, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.0/10 100% HD screens as fairly-to-slightly expensive for a low-growth retailer: ~24.4x trailing earnings with ... $343.30 Sched.
Jun 07, 2026 NEUTRAL 5.6/10 100% HD trades at ~22x TTM P/E with earnings in modest year-over-year decline (adj. EPS $3.43 vs. $3.56 i... $310.78 Sched.
May 31, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.1/10 100% HD is trading at ~22.5x TTM P/E — optically reasonable but deceptive given GAAP EPS is declining YoY... $317.14 Sched.
May 24, 2026 NEUTRAL 5.8/10 100% HD is a post-earnings drift situation where the catalyst is already consumed — Q1 beat was modest (0... $313.07 Sched.
May 17, 2026 BEARISH 7.1/10 100% HD faces a binary earnings event on May 19 — just 2 trading days away — with consensus expecting EPS... $297.51 Sched.
May 10, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.1/10 75% HD is trading near its 52-week low (~$317 vs. $310 low) and roughly 25% below its 52-week high, refl... $317.45 Sched.
May 03, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.1/10 100% HD trades at ~$324, roughly 24% below the analyst consensus target of ~$408, which appears attractiv... $323.88 Sched.
Apr 12, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.0/10 50% HD is trading roughly 21% below the analyst consensus target of ~$408 and recently bounced off a 52-... $337.34 Sched.
Showing last 9 signals
HD The Home Depot Inc.
Signal
FY2026 annual report (10-K filed 2026-03-18)
INCOME STATEMENT
? Revenue
$164,683 million 3.2% YoY
? Operating income
$20,890 million
? Net income
$14,156 million
? Free cash flow
$12,646 million
? EPS (diluted)
$3.30
? Dividend per share
$9.20
Click any row to expand the plain-English explanation. Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings.
Capital intelligence
Signal
Weighted Average Cost of Capital · Return on Invested Capital · Economic Value Added
ROIC
22.90%
WACC
8.25%
🟢 VALUE CREATOR — EVA Spread: 14.65%
? WACC
8.25%
? Cost of equity
9.48%
? Cost of debt (after-tax)
0.81%
? Capital structure
E: 85.79% / D: 14.21%
? ROIC
22.90%
? EVA
$10.0B
? NOPAT
$15.6B
Risk-free rate: 4.25% (10Y Treasury) · Equity risk premium: 5.50% · Sources: total_debt: Gemini 10-K, operating_income: XBRL TTM (4Q sum), interest_expense: Derived (OI - PTI), invested_capital: Equity + Debt - Cash
Xavier consensus signals are intelligence outputs, not investment advice. All signals are generated by a multi-model AI system and reflect public information at time of generation. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future performance. Wall Street analyst consensus sourced from public disclosures, summarized weekly. Financial data sourced from SEC EDGAR and yfinance. Insider transactions sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 4 filings. Updated Jul 12, 2026.