MSJ-100 Index
1,036.65
Signal breadth
4 Bullish 93 Neutral 3 Bearish Avg confidence 6.16 / 10
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GOOGL
Alphabet Inc.
Communication Services · NYSE: GOOGL · MSJ-100
$359.51
▲ $7.00  (▲1.99%) today
After-hours: $358.67  ▼ 0.23%
Headquarters
Mountain View, CA
Employees
194,668
Founded
1998
CEO
Mr. Sundar Pichai
Incorporated
Delaware
Fiscal Year End
December
Analyst price target range Free
Avg target $431.72
$360 now
Bear $340 Avg $432 Bull $515
Price history Free
Volume
18.26M
Avg volume
31.50M
Open
$351.09
Day high / low
$360.16 / $351.09
Market cap
$4.39T
About this company
Free
Alphabet Inc. is a global technology company that organizes the world's information and makes it universally accessible and useful. It operates primarily through Google Services (including search, advertising, Android, and YouTube), Google Cloud (enterprise cloud services), and Other Bets (moonshot technologies like autonomous driving and life sciences).
The company is heavily focused on developing and integrating artificial intelligence across its products and services.
Business segments
10-K
Google Services Google Cloud Other Bets
Recent News
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Investor day:
Intel
Free
Jun 03, 2026Neutral
● Full transcript on file
Key metrics
Forward guidance
Notable Q&A
Surprise items
Q1 2026 (Apr 23, 2026) · Optimistic Q4 2025 (Jan 30, 2026) · Confident
Fundamentals
Signal
52-week high / low
$408.61 / $180.48
Forward P/E
24.6×
Trailing 27.4×
Dividend
$0.88 / share
Yield 0.25%
Analysts covering
53
Avg target $431.72
Beta
1.25
vs. S&P 500
Short interest
1.5%
Float shorted
Buy
89%
Hold
11%
Sell
0%
Wall Street consensus — sourced weekly via public disclosures
Analyst coverage data sourced from public filings. Xavier analyst thesis summary available after weekly Perplexity scan completes.
Financial summary — Gemini analysis
Signal
Revenue
$402.836 billion USD
15% YoY
Operating margin
32.0%
Net income
$132.170 billion USD
Free cash flow
$73.266 billion USD
Dividend / share
$0.83 USD
Total debt
$48.543 billion USD
Cash: $30.708 billion USD
Earnings quality: HIGH
Cash conversion:1.2x
Non-recurring items: EC fine of $3.5 billion accrued in Q3 2025 related to advertising technology business practices., Legal accrual of $1.4 billion made in Q2 2025 related to privacy matters., Employee compensation charge of $2.1 billion for Waymo in Q4 2025, based on estimated stock valuation., Net gains on equity securities of $24.1 billion in 2025, primarily from unrealized gains on non-marketable equity securities.
Source: SEC 10-K filing analyzed by Gemini 2.5 Flash · 2026-02-05
Xavier sector view:
Communication Services
See journal
View Communication Services journal ↗
Xavier's signal
NEUTRAL
Signal
Confidence 6.7 / 10  ·  75% model agreement  ·  Scheduled Jul 12, 2026
GOOGL trades at a ~13% discount to the 52-week high and ~17% below consensus price target at a forward P/E of ~24.5x, which is reasonable for a company with 15% revenue growth, 32% earnings growth, and a Google Cloud backlog that nearly doubled to ~$460B. The Q2 earnings report on July 22 — just outside the 5-day window — is acting as a pre-earnings drift catalyst, and the stock's Dow inclusion has reinforced institutional positioning. For the next 5 trading days specifically, the risk/reward skews modestly bullish as pre-earnings momentum builds and no imminent binary risk event is scheduled within the window.
Strongest bull case
Google Cloud is capacity-constrained with demand exceeding supply — the $460B backlog nearly doubled in a single quarter, and CEO Pichai acknowledged cloud revenue would have been higher if compute capacity allowed; this is a high-quality demand signal, not a revenue shortfall, and it sets up a strong Q2 beat narrative heading into July 22 earnings.
Strongest bear case
Alphabet faces dual antitrust exposure: the DOJ has appealed the search monopoly remedies seeking Chrome divestiture, and the ad tech case resulted in a second monopolization finding — any surprise court filing or DOJ statement in the next 5 trading days (flagged explicitly as a near-term risk) could introduce sharp downside volatility, particularly given the stock's elevated beta of 1.25 against a neutral macro regime.
What the market may be missing
The compute-constrained Cloud narrative is actually a double-edged sword the market is underweighting on the bear side: CapEx of ~$91B already exceeds trailing free cash flow of ~$73B, and the planned $180-190B in 2026 infrastructure spend will likely push FCF negative or structurally compress it for multiple quarters — at a $4.35T market cap, the market is pricing in rapid monetization of that backlog, but execution risk on this scale of capital deployment is non-trivial and is not reflected in the current multiple.
Model breakdown
Signal
Atlas (Claude) — BULLISH
Meridian (GPT-4) — NEUTRAL
Grayline (Grok) — NEUTRAL
Vantage (Gemini) — NEUTRAL
msj100_GOOGL_20260712T003715Z
Peer comparison
Signal
GOOGL
current
$359.51 ▲2.0%
TTD
NEUTRAL
$19.53
VZ
NEUTRAL
$42.12
T
NEUTRAL
$21.13
CMCSA
NEUTRAL
$23.57
Recent SEC filings
Signal
LOG
4 — 2026-07-06
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-07-06
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-07-06
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-07-06
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-07-06
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
CEO scorecard — Mr. Sundar Pichai
Signal summary
Full detail Pro
MS
Mr. Sundar Pichai
CEO & Director · Alphabet Inc.
CEO since None
Total compensation
Pay vs performance
Board assessment
Say-on-pay approval
Shareholder vote
Board independence
CEO letter to shareholders
Signal
Full letter Pro
Sundar Pichai 2025 Annual Report OPTIMISTIC

To our Shareholders,

2025 was a tremendous year for Alphabet.

We delivered our first-ever $100 billion quarter

in Q3 and saw our annual revenues exceed $400

billion for the first time. We saw strong momentum

across our entire business, including Search, Google

Cloud—which ended the year with an annual run

rate of over $70 billion—and YouTube, whose annual

revenues surpassed $60 billion across Ads and

Subscriptions. Meanwhile, consumer subscriptions

exceeded 325 million. We ended 2025 in a great

position, driven by our AI-first strategy and our

differentiated, full-stack approach.

AI Infrastructure

Our unrivaled technical infrastructure serves as the

bedrock of our AI stack. We are scaling our physical

infrastructure at a stunning pace: In 2026, we plan

to invest around $180 billion in total capex, doubled

from $90 billion last year, and 6x increase in just

four years. We offer the industry’s widest variety of

compute options to our Cloud customers, including

the latest NVIDIA GPUs and our own custom TPUs that

we have been developing for over a decade. We’re

now shipping Ironwood, our seventh-generation TPU,

which delivers a 10x performance improvement over

its predecessor, and we’ve announced TPU 8, coming

later this year. In March 2025 we announced our intent

to acquire Wiz, and the deal was finalized in March

2026. It’s our largest acquisition in our history, and an

investment by Google Cloud to improve cloud security

and enable organizations to build fast and securely

across any cloud or AI platform.

World-Class Research and Models

Our world-class research and models continue to

lead the industry. In December, we launched Gemini 3,

which drove the state of the art in reasoning and

multimodal understanding and swept AI leaderboards.

We also boast the world’s most extensive generative

media model portfolio, including our leading video

model Veo 3.1 and the viral image model sensation

Nano Banana. In our Q4 2025 earnings we shared

that our first party models like Gemini processed over

10 billion tokens per minute via direct API use by our

customers, up from 7 billion the quarter prior.

Our deep computer science roots are accelerating

discoveries, from our Gemma models being used

for cancer research to our Willow quantum chip,

which achieved a new milestone last year with the

first verifiable instance of a quantum computer

outperforming a regular supercomputer on a

computation that paves the way for future practical

applications. This momentum in quantum computing

is built on foundational science, highlighted by our

chief scientist for quantum hardware, Michel Devoret,

being awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics for his early

research—the third Googler to receive a Nobel Prize

in just the last two years.

On a personal note, I was proud to mark 10 years

as CEO of Google in 2025. My first decisions as CEO

were to pivot the company to be AI-first and to grow

sustainable businesses. Amazing to see the incredible

progress with AI and our businesses since then.

To give a sense of progress, in 2015 all of Alphabet’s

revenue added up to $75 billion. YouTube and Cloud

alone ended 2024 at an annual run rate of $110 billion.

As we look to 2026, we remain laser-focused on

pushing the next frontiers of foundation models

to make AI helpful for everyone: intelligence,

personalization, and agents.

First, model intelligence will continue to accelerate.

With Gemini 3, we are already seeing glimmers of

future capabilities today, unlocking state-of-the-art

reasoning, natively multimodal understanding,

and the ability to process massive contexts.

Second, we are rolling out Personal Intelligence

across products like AI Mode, the Gemini app, Gemini

in Chrome and more. With features like Personalized

Smart Replies in Gmail, our models can use relevant

context across your Google apps to capture your

unique tone and style—always in a way that is private,

transparent, and fully under your control.

Finally, 2026 is officially the year of the agent.

AI agents turn our consumer and enterprise products

into collaborators that can take complex actions on

your behalf. Today, nearly 75% of all new code at

Google is AI-generated and approved by engineers,

up from 50% last fall. We’re also laying the

groundwork for agentic commerce. In January we

introduced the Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP),

an open standard built with industry leaders, so

different agents and systems can work together

easily across the web. Much more to come!

We are just at the beginning of a period of hyper-

progress. We will continue to focus on our mission,

building products people love, and responsibly

advancing this technology so it benefits everyone.

Thank you for your continued support.

- Sundar

Xavier analysis
The CEO uses highly positive language such as 'tremendous year,' 'strong momentum,' 'unrivaled technical infrastructure,' 'stunning pace,' 'world-class research,' 'swept AI leaderboards,' 'incredible progress,' and declares 'a period of hyper-progress,' indicating strong confidence in past performance and future outlook.
Strategic themes by emphasis
#1AI-First Strategy & Leadership
#2Infrastructure Investment & Scaling
#3Core Business & Cloud Growth
#4Deep Science & Quantum Computing
#5Future of AI: Intelligence, Personalization, Agents
#6M&A for Strategic Growth
20 named projects & initiatives
Search, Google Cloud, YouTube, NVIDIA GPUs, custom TPUs, Ironwood +14 more
8 product, 5 r and d, 4 technology, 1 platform, 1 acquisition, 1 program
Forward-looking statements
9 total: 1 quantified, 5 directional, 3 vague
Capital allocation priority
Organic Growth (Infrastructure Investment) → Mergers & Acquisitions → Other Bets / Long-term R&D
Key quotes
“2025 was a tremendous year for Alphabet.”
Sets an immediately positive and confident tone for the letter and the company's performance.
“We ended 2025 in a great position, driven by our AI-first strategy and our differentiated, full-stack approach.”
Summarizes the key drivers of success and the strategic foundation for future growth.
View 2025 Annual Report (PDF) →3 letters on file (2025, 2024, 2022) · Full history with Pro
Debt intelligence
Pro
0.82x
Debt / Equity
111.8x
Interest coverage
0.3x
Net Debt / EBITDA
$41.4B
Net debt
11%
Debt / Assets
Xavier risk radar
Pro
Covenant headroom
Low leverage — no covenants required
Earnings quality
High quality (cash conversion 1.2x)
Risk trend
Risk increasing — Regulatory and legal challenges, particularly in antitrust, data privacy, and AI
Mgmt narrative
Management tone: Bullish
Analyst drift
Consensus Buy — targets stable
Insider sentiment
Pattern detection — 90 days needed
Signal history
Signal
DateDirectionConf.Agree.ThesisPriceType
Jul 12, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.7/10 75% GOOGL trades at a ~13% discount to the 52-week high and ~17% below consensus price target at a forwa... $357.18 Sched.
Jul 11, 2026 NEUTRAL 5.6/10 100% GOOGL remains a high-quality mega-cap with solid free-cash-flow generation and a forward P/E in the ... $357.18 Sched.
Jun 07, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.2/10 100% GOOGL's $80-85B equity raise — the largest in corporate history — signals aggressive AI ambition but... $368.53 Sched.
May 31, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.2/10 75% GOOGL's post-Google I/O AI catalyst (Gemini 3.5, agentic Search) has already been absorbed by the ma... $380.34 Sched.
May 24, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.5/10 100% GOOGL still has strong fundamental quality and trades below analyst consensus target, but at roughly... $382.97 Sched.
May 17, 2026 NEUTRAL 5.9/10 100% GOOGL has surged ~160% in the past year to within 2% of its 52-week high, pricing in exceptional AI ... $396.78 Sched.
May 10, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.8/10 67% GOOGL has strong large-cap momentum and a supportive macro backdrop, but the stock is trading essent... $400.80 Sched.
May 03, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.8/10 50% GOOGL just delivered a genuinely exceptional Q1 2026 beat — 22% revenue growth, Google Cloud up 63% ... $385.69 Sched.
Apr 12, 2026 BULLISH 7.2/10 100% GOOGL is trading ~9% below its 52-week high and roughly 18% below the consensus analyst price target... $317.24 Sched.
Showing last 9 signals
GOOGL Alphabet Inc.
Signal
FY2026 annual report (10-K filed 2026-02-05)
INCOME STATEMENT
? Revenue
$402.836 billion USD 15% YoY
? Operating income
$129.039 billion USD
? Net income
$132.170 billion USD
? Free cash flow
$73.266 billion USD
? EPS (diluted)
$5.11
? Dividend per share
$0.83 USD
Click any row to expand the plain-English explanation. Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings.
Capital intelligence
Signal
Weighted Average Cost of Capital · Return on Invested Capital · Economic Value Added
ROIC
21.47%
WACC
10.99%
🟢 VALUE CREATOR — EVA Spread: 10.48%
? WACC
10.99%
? Cost of equity
11.11%
? Cost of debt (after-tax)
4.45%
? Capital structure
E: 98.22% / D: 1.78%
? ROIC
21.47%
? EVA
$54.5B
? NOPAT
$111.7B
Risk-free rate: 4.25% (10Y Treasury) · Equity risk premium: 5.50% · Sources: total_debt: XBRL, operating_income: XBRL TTM (4Q sum), invested_capital: Equity + Debt - Cash
Xavier consensus signals are intelligence outputs, not investment advice. All signals are generated by a multi-model AI system and reflect public information at time of generation. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future performance. Wall Street analyst consensus sourced from public disclosures, summarized weekly. Financial data sourced from SEC EDGAR and yfinance. Insider transactions sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 4 filings. Updated Jul 12, 2026.