MSJ-100 Index
1,036.65
Signal breadth
4 Bullish 93 Neutral 3 Bearish Avg confidence 6.16 / 10
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FCX
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.
Materials · NYSE: FCX · MSJ-100
$61.95
▲ $1.98  (▲3.30%) today
After-hours: $61.95  ▲ 0.00%
Headquarters
Phoenix, AZ
Employees
29,000
Founded
1912
CEO
Ms. Kathleen Lynne Quirk
Incorporated
Delaware
Fiscal Year End
December
Analyst price target range Free
Avg target $70.79
$62 now
Bear $30 Avg $71 Bull $82
Price history Free
Volume
11.63M
Avg volume
14.94M
Open
$61.94
Day high / low
$62.92 / $61.20
Market cap
$89.1B
About this company
Free
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. is a leading international metals company primarily focused on copper, operating large, long-lived, and geographically diverse assets. The company is one of the world's largest publicly traded copper producers, also extracting significant proven and probable mineral reserves of gold and molybdenum.
Business segments
10-K
North America Copper Mines South America Mines Grasberg Molybdenum Atlantic Copper Smelting and Refining Rod and Refining All Other Segments
Recent News
Loading news...
Earnings call: Q1 2026 2026
Intel
Free
Apr 23, 2026Confident
● Full transcript on file
Richard C. Adkerson (Chairman and Chief Executive Officer), Kathleen L. Quirk (President and Chief Financial Officer), Michael J. Kendrick (Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer), Robert F. Schreiner (Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer)
Key metrics
For Q1 2026, Freeport-McMoRan reported revenue of approximately $6.23 billion, with adjusted earnings per share around $0.57, exceeding consensus estimates that were closer to $0.47. Copper sales volumes increased year over year, supported by steady operations at key mines, while unit cash costs remained well controlled, helping sustain solid margi
Forward guidance
Management reiterated a constructive outlook for the copper market, emphasizing expectations for continued tight supply-demand conditions driven by ongoing global electrification and energy transition trends. They guided to maintaining strong production levels from existing assets while pursuing disciplined, phased growth projects, with capital spe
Notable Q&A
One notable Q&A exchange involved an analyst asking about the sustainability of current copper prices and Freeport’s willingness to sanction new large-scale projects if prices remain elevated. Management responded that while the long-term fundamentals are very positive, they will continue to be disc
Surprise items
The quarter featured a stronger-than-expected earnings performance relative to consensus, driven by both robust copper pricing and solid operational execution, which supported a confident tone on near-term cash flow generation. Management’s firm stance on capital discipline and reluctance to quickly
Q1 FY2026 (Apr 23, 2026) · Optimistic Q4 FY2025 (Jan 23, 2026) · Confident
Fundamentals
Signal
52-week high / low
$72.28 / $35.15
Forward P/E
15.4×
Trailing 31.8×
Dividend
$0.60 / share
Yield 1.00%
Analysts covering
22
Avg target $70.79
Beta
1.36
vs. S&P 500
Short interest
2.2%
Float shorted
Buy
83%
Hold
13%
Sell
4%
Wall Street consensus — sourced weekly via public disclosures
Analyst coverage data sourced from public filings. Xavier analyst thesis summary available after weekly Perplexity scan completes.
Financial summary — Gemini analysis
Signal
Revenue
25.915 billion USD
1.81% YoY
Operating margin
25.1%
Net income
2.204 billion USD
Free cash flow
1.116 billion USD
Dividend / share
$0.60
Total debt
9.379 billion USD
Cash: 3.824 billion USD
CapEx guidance
4.3 billion USD
Earnings quality: HIGH
Cash conversion:1.4x
Non-recurring items: Idle facility costs and direct recovery expenses associated with the September 2025 mud rush incident ($743 million), Asset impairment charges and write-offs associated with the September 2025 mud rush incident ($73 million), Remediation costs related to the October 2024 smelter fire incident ($65 million), Impairments of legacy oil and gas properties and adjustments to abandonment obligations ($118 million)
Source: SEC 10-K filing analyzed by Gemini 2.5 Flash · 2026-02-13
Xavier sector view:
Materials
See journal
View Materials journal ↗
Xavier's signal
NEUTRAL
Signal
Confidence 6.1 / 10  ·  75% model agreement  ·  Scheduled Jul 12, 2026
FCX trades at a TTM P/E of ~32.5x — above its 5-year median and expensive for a cyclical commodity producer — while copper futures have retreated from highs amid Middle East-driven macro volatility and a stronger dollar, removing near-term price catalysts. The forward P/E of ~15x looks attractive only if copper prices stabilize and earnings jump sharply, but GF Value estimates the stock is ~20-26% overvalued at current levels. With earnings approaching and the stock down ~10% over the past month before today's bounce, the risk/reward is balanced but skewed slightly to the downside in the 5-day window.
Strongest bull case
Upcoming earnings with a +3.5% positive Earnings ESP surprise probability, strong analyst consensus ($70.84 target vs. $61.52 price = ~15% upside), and structural long-term copper demand from AI data centers, grid infrastructure, and electrification support a re-rating narrative; a July 15 ex-dividend date may also attract income buyers this week.
Strongest bear case
Copper futures pulled back toward the $6/lb mark on Middle East escalation — US-Iran conflict is strengthening the dollar and directly pressuring base metal demand outlooks, with J.P. Morgan warning macro risks are 'not yet fully priced in'; FCX already underperformed the broader market by 4.55% prior to today's session, and the stock sits 15% below its 52-week high with no fresh company-specific catalyst to close that gap in 5 days.
What the market may be missing
The July 15 ex-dividend date creates a mechanical near-term bid from income-oriented holders seeking record-date capture, but post-ex-date selling pressure could offset any pre-dividend support within the 5-day window — making the dividend a timing noise factor rather than a true catalyst. More importantly, FCX's Grasberg mine operational challenges (flagged in production guidance cuts) combined with sulphuric acid supply constraints from China's export halt could compress realized margins even if copper spot prices hold, a risk the street's forward P/E compression thesis does not fully discount.
Model breakdown
Signal
Atlas (Claude) — NEUTRAL
Meridian (GPT-4) — NEUTRAL
Grayline (Grok) — NEUTRAL
Vantage (Gemini) — BULLISH
msj100_FCX_20260712T003715Z
Peer comparison
Signal
FCX
current
$61.95 ▲3.3%
MLM
NEUTRAL
$577.72
NEM
NEUTRAL
$95.29
APD
NEUTRAL
$299.53
CF
NEUTRAL
$113.49
Recent SEC filings
Signal
LOG
4 — 2026-07-01
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-07-01
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
8-K — 2026-06-10
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-06-02
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-06-02
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
CEO scorecard — Kathleen L. Quirk
Signal summary
Full detail Pro
KL
Kathleen L. Quirk
President and Chief Executive Officer · Freeport-McMoRan Inc.
CEO since 2024-06-11
Total compensation
$14,808,126 ▲ 11.4% YoY
Prior year: $13,286,084
Pay vs performance
Aligned
Board assessment
Say-on-pay approval
95%
Shareholder vote
Board independence
9/11 (82%)
Base salary$1,400,000
Bonus / incentive$1,400,700
Stock awards$11,631,590
Executive appearances
Intel
Free
Investor DayNov 12, 2025
Freeport-McMoRan 2025 Investor Day Source ↗
Ms. Kathleen Lynne Quirk (CEO) · Phoenix, AZ
Quirk presented updated strategic plans, including copper production growth to over 4.5 million tons by 2030 via expansions and leaching. She covered sustainability initiatives, cost efficiencies, and financial framework for buybacks and dividends. L
ConferenceSep 16, 2025
Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference Source ↗
Ms. Kathleen Lynne Quirk (CEO) · Dana Point, CA
Kathleen Quirk discussed Freeport-McMoRan's strong copper production growth, cost discipline, and robust balance sheet amid favorable copper market dynamics. She highlighted strategic investments in leaching technologies and expansions at key mines l
“"We are well positioned to deliver industry-leading growth in copper production over the next several years." "Our focus on operational excellence and innovative leaching initiatives will support marg”
ConferenceMay 28, 2025
Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference Source ↗
Ms. Kathleen Lynne Quirk (CEO) · New York, NY
Quirk outlined FCX's production outlook, emphasizing copper demand from energy transition and supply constraints. She reviewed progress on major projects like Bagdad and Lone Star, and stressed financial flexibility for growth investments. She projec
“"Copper is the metal of electrification, and we expect structural deficits to support higher prices." "Our leaching expansion programs are on track to add significant low-cost production by 2028."”
InterviewApr 10, 2025
CNBC Halftime Report Interview Source ↗
Ms. Kathleen Lynne Quirk (CEO) · CNBC
Quirk highlighted surging copper demand from the energy transition and FCX's strategic positioning with low-cost assets. She discussed production ramp-ups and positive market outlook without specific price targets. Emphasis was on disciplined capital
“"We are very well positioned with our portfolio of world-class assets to meet growing demand."”
ConferenceFeb 25, 2025
BofA Securities Global Agriculture and Materials Conference Source ↗
Ms. Kathleen Lynne Quirk (CEO) · Miami, FL
Quirk addressed the robust copper market fundamentals driven by supply tightness and rising demand from EVs, renewables, and AI data centers. She detailed FCX's cost reduction efforts and leaching technology advancements to boost profitability. Forwa
CEO letter to shareholders
Signal
Full letter Pro
Kathleen L. Quirk 2025 Annual Report OPTIMISTIC

Dear Fellow Shareholders

The theme of this year’s annual report, “Copper at Our

Core,” reflects the central role copper plays in the global

economy and in Freeport’s strategy. Copper is fundamental

to emerging secular trends in electrification, technological

advancement and critical energy infrastructure and has

long been at the heart of our company’s strategy. With a

diversified portfolio of long-lived assets, extensive technical

expertise, and a strong financial foundation, Freeport is

well-positioned to supply copper reliably and responsibly

to a growing market.

In 2025, our team demonstrated resilience in overcoming

challenges and achieved meaningful progress on several

initiatives strengthening our foundation and positioning

the company for a positive long-term future centered on

value creation. We are saddened by the unprecedented

September 2025 mud rush tragedy at the Grasberg Block

Cave where we lost seven of our co-workers. This incident

overshadowed otherwise steady improvements in our

safety performance. Our Total Recordable Incident Rate

was better than target and the past two years represented

our strongest performance in a decade, and high-risk

incidents trended lower. Safety remains our highest

priority, and the tragic loss of our co-workers during 2025

is informing our risk management practices, operating

controls, and decision-making across our business.

During the year, we achieved several important operational

milestones. In the U.S., we delivered a year-over-year

increase in copper production volumes, supported by

efficiency gains. Unit net cash cost trends improved year-

over-year across all regions, reflecting a continued focus

on operating fundamentals. In Indonesia, we successfully

restored smelter operations following the 2024 fire, and

progressed restart initiatives in preparation for a safe and

sustainable ramp-up of large-scale production at Grasberg

following the mud rush incident.

Innovation and technology are integral to how we

strengthen and grow the value of our copper business.

During the year, we deployed internally developed additives

to improve leach recoveries and enable low-cost, near-

term production growth. We converted the Bagdad haul

truck fleet to a fully autonomous system, becoming the

first U.S. mine with a fully autonomous haulage operation,

and we established an integrated remote operating center

for our U.S. operations. Across our portfolio, we continue

to pursue new technologies and innovations with the goal

of enhancing long-term value by improving operating and

capital efficiency, reliability and safety.

We also progressed our organic growth options, all

centered on expanding our copper portfolio. As “America’s

Copper Champion,” we are advancing projects with

the potential to increase our U.S. copper production

by approximately 60% by 2030 through the Bagdad 2X

expansion project and continued scaling of our leach

initiatives. At Safford/Lone Star, we continued work to

define a potentially significant expansion opportunity.

In Chile, we advanced preparation of our permitting

application for a major copper expansion at El Abra

and added 17.5 billion pounds of recoverable copper to

reserves associated with this potential mill project. In

Indonesia, we are advancing the development of the large

Kucing Liar deposit and completed studies to expand the

footprint of this highly attractive ore body in the Grasberg

minerals district.

In February 2026, we achieved a major milestone by

entering into a Memorandum of Understanding with the

Government of Indonesia for a life of resource extension

of operating rights for PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI) in the

Grasberg minerals district. This agreement reinforces long-

term stability at one of the world’s most significant copper

and gold deposits and aligns the interests of Freeport, the

Government of Indonesia and local stakeholders over the

life of the resource.

Our financial performance in 2025 reflected the strength

of our copper-focused portfolio. Operating cash flows of

$5.6 billion exceeded capital expenditures of $3.9 billion,

excluding $0.6 billion to complete PTFI’s smelter and

precious metals refinery in Gresik (collectively, PTFI’s

downstream processing facilities). We maintained a strong

balance sheet and investment grade credit ratings from

S&P, Moody’s and Fitch. We delivered shareholder returns

— including dividends and share repurchases at attractive

levels — in accordance with our established financial

policy. Since mid-2021, we have distributed $5.7 billion

to shareholders.

Copper prices reached new highs in early 2026, supported

by recognition of copper’s strategic importance to the

global economy. While we recognize macroeconomic

and geopolitical factors will influence short-term markets,

including the current conflict in the Middle East, the

intensity of use of copper is expected to continue to grow,

supporting a favorable long-term outlook for copper. With

“Copper at Our Core,” Freeport’s high-quality asset base,

embedded organic growth options, and financial strength

position us to generate substantial cash flows to support

profitable growth and returns to shareholders.

As we enter 2026, our focus is clear: disciplined execution,

safe restoration of operations at Grasberg, continued

advancement of innovation and growth initiatives, including

our innovative leach initiative, and sustained financial

strength. Copper is central to who we are, and our strategy —

being Foremost in Copper — underpins our confidence and

our commitment to delivering long-term shareholder value.

To our global workforce, thank you for your dedication,

resilience and commitment throughout a challenging

year. Your focus on safety, execution and continuous

improvement is fundamental to our success. To our Board

of Directors, thank you for your guidance and counsel as

we navigate an evolving global environment. And to our

shareholders, we appreciate your continued trust and

investment as we execute our strategy with “Copper at

Our Core.”

Sincerely,

Xavier analysis
The letter maintains a highly optimistic outlook for the company's future, copper demand, and strategic growth, while acknowledging and addressing challenges like a safety incident and geopolitical factors with a focus on resilience and proactive measures.
Strategic themes by emphasis
#1Organic Growth & Portfolio Expansion
#2Copper's Central Role & Market Outlook
#3Operational Excellence & Safety
#4Financial Strength & Shareholder Returns
#5Innovation & Technology Adoption
#6Partnerships & Long-term Stability (Indonesia)
11 named projects & initiatives
Grasberg Block Cave, Bagdad haul truck fleet, Bagdad 2X expansion project, Safford/Lone Star, El Abra, Kucing Liar deposit +5 more
4 facility, 4 strategic initiative, 2 technology, 1 partnership
Forward-looking statements
13 total: 2 quantified, 9 directional, 2 vague
Capital allocation priority
Organic Growth → Shareholder Returns (Dividends & Buybacks) → Balance Sheet Strength
Key quotes
“Copper is fundamental to emerging secular trends in electrification, technological advancement and critical energy infrastructure and has long been at the heart of our company’s strategy.”
Establishes the foundational strategic importance of copper to the company's mission and future.
“We are saddened by the unprecedented September 2025 mud rush tragedy at the Grasberg Block Cave where we lost seven of our co-workers.”
Demonstrates transparency and empathy regarding a major negative event, showing accountability.
View 2025 Annual Report (PDF) →
Executive compensation
Signal
NameTitleTotal compensation
Kathleen L. QuirkPresident and Chief Executive Officer$14,808,126
Richard C. AdkersonChairman of the Board$18,143,529
Maree E. RobertsonExecutive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer$4,333,461
Stephen T. HigginsExecutive Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer$3,631,560
Douglas N. Currault IIExecutive Vice President and General Counsel$3,131,976
Source: DEF 14A proxy statement · 2026-04-23
Governance
Pro
Dual-class shares: No
Poison pill: No
Clawback policy: Yes
Stock ownership req.: Yes
Shareholder proposals
Election of eleven directors
FOR
Pending
Advisory vote on the compensation of named executive officers
FOR
Pending
Ratification of the appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as independent registered p
FOR
Pending
Debt intelligence
Pro
14 debt instruments · 24 unique covenants
0.51x
Debt / Equity
17.8x
Interest coverage
0.6x
Net Debt / EBITDA
$6.2B
Net debt
17%
Debt / Assets
Interest coverage trend (EBITDA / Interest expense)
35.8x
24-06
26.9x
24-09
25.3x
25-03
43.5x
25-06
18.4x
25-09
23.2x
26-03
Credit facilities & debt instruments
Revolver $3,000,000,000
REVOLVING CREDIT AGREEMENT dated as of October 19, 2022
Matures 2027-10-19 · Filed 2022-10-25
Floating · SOFR | Prime | Fed Funds
unsecured
Bond $650,000,000
4.375% Senior Notes due 2028
Matures 2028-08-01 · Filed 2020-07-27
Fixed
unsecured
35671D CG8
Revolver
Revolving Credit Agreement dated as of April 20, 2018
Matures · Filed 2020-06-03
Floating · other — Eurodollar, ABR
Bond $700,000,000 aggregate principal amount
4.125% Senior Notes due 2028
Matures 2028-03-01 · Filed 2020-03-04
Fixed
unsecured
35671D CE3 US35671DCE31
Revolver
Revolving Credit Agreement dated as of April 20, 2018 (as amended by that certain First Amendment da
Matures · Filed 2019-11-25
Credit $3,500,000,000.00
Revolving Credit Agreement dated as of April 20, 2018
Matures 2024-04-20 · Filed 2019-05-02
Secured, collateral not fully described in this amendment but implied by 'Liens created under the Loan Documents' in the definition of Unrestricted CV Cash.
8 additional agreements on file
Financial covenants
Maximum Total Leverage Ratio
≤ 3.75x
Total Debt / Consolidated EBITDA
REVOLVING CREDIT AGREEMENT dated as of October 19,
Maximum Total Leverage Ratio
≤ 5.25 to 1.00 (during Covenant Increase Period); ≤ 3.75 to 1.00 (after Covenant Increase Period)
Total Leverage Ratio
Revolving Credit Agreement dated as of April 20, 2
Minimum Interest Expense Coverage Ratio
≥ 2.00 to 1.00 (during Covenant Increase Period); ≥ 2.25 to 1.00 (after Covenant Increase Period)
Consolidated EBITDA to Consolidated Cash Interest Expense
Revolving Credit Agreement dated as of April 20, 2
Minimum Liquidity
≥ $1,000,000,000
Liquidity (Available Unrestricted Cash + Availability)
Revolving Credit Agreement dated as of April 20, 2
Maximum Other Indebtedness and Liens Basket
not exceed the greater of (A) $2,250,000,000 and (B) 7.5% of Consolidated Total Assets
Sum of (i) aggregate principal amount of outstanding Indebtedness and Attributable Debt incurred under Section 6.01(i), (ii) aggregate principal amount of outstanding Indebtedness and Attributable Debt of any Subsidiary Borrower/Guarantor secured by a Lien under Section 6.02(l), and (iii) total book value of all assets subject to any Lien under Section 6.02(o)
Revolving Credit Agreement dated as of April 20, 2
Total Leverage Ratio
≤ 5.25x (through June 30, 2021), then ≤ 3.75x (on or after September 30, 2021)
Total Debt / (Consolidated EBITDA or similar)
Revolving Credit Agreement dated as of April 20, 2
Maximum Revolving Exposure to Revolving Commitments
≤ 1.00x
Revolving Exposures / Revolving Commitments
Revolving Credit Agreement dated as of April 20, 2
Total Leverage Ratio
≤ 3.75 to 1.00
Total Debt to Consolidated EBITDA
REVOLVING CREDIT AGREEMENT dated as of April 20, 2
16 additional covenants on file
Cross-default risk
6 agreements contain cross-default provisions — a covenant breach on one facility may trigger default on others.
Xavier risk radar
Pro
Covenant headroom
Low leverage — no covenants required
Earnings quality
High quality (cash conversion 1.4x)
Risk trend
Risk increasing — Failure to achieve remediation activities, and the phased restart and ramp-up of
Mgmt narrative
Management tone: Cautiously optimistic
Analyst drift
Consensus Buy — targets stable
Insider sentiment
Pattern detection — 90 days needed
Signal history
Signal
DateDirectionConf.Agree.ThesisPriceType
Jul 12, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.1/10 75% FCX trades at a TTM P/E of ~32.5x — above its 5-year median and expensive for a cyclical commodity p... $61.52 Sched.
Jul 11, 2026 NEUTRAL 5.9/10 50% FCX has supportive medium-term copper leverage and still trades below analyst consensus target, but ... $61.52 Sched.
Jun 07, 2026 BEARISH 7.0/10 50% FCX suffered a sharp -9.07% single-day decline on elevated volume (18.1M vs 16M avg), breaking below... $63.37 Sched.
May 31, 2026 NEUTRAL 5.9/10 100% FCX trades at a stretched 34.8x TTM P/E — well above its 5-year median and the sector average — whil... $65.71 Sched.
May 24, 2026 NEUTRAL 5.6/10 100% FCX's Q1 2026 earnings were strong ($0.57 non-GAAP EPS, $6.2B revenue), and copper prices remain ele... $61.99 Sched.
May 17, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.4/10 50% FCX trades at a stretched TTM P/E of 33x with near-zero revenue growth (0.09%), and today's -4.73% d... $63.01 Sched.
May 10, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.2/10 75% FCX trades at a TTM P/E of ~32.6x — elevated relative to materials peers — while Grasberg Block Cave... $61.65 Sched.
May 03, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.5/10 75% FCX trades ~16% below consensus analyst targets with a forward P/E of ~15x, a significant discount t... $56.55 Sched.
May 01, 2026 NEUTRAL 5.8/10 100% FCX trades at 30.6x TTM P/E — stretched for a cyclical miner — while the Grasberg Block Cave remains... $57.89 Sched.
Apr 24, 2026 BEARISH 7.5/10 100% FCX just suffered a severe post-earnings drawdown of 12.6% on nearly 2x average volume, signaling a ... $61.48 Event
Apr 12, 2026 BULLISH 6.8/10 50% FCX is trading within 3% of its 52-week high with a Q1 2026 earnings report due April 23 expected to... $67.80 Sched.
Showing last 11 signals
FCX Freeport-McMoRan Inc.
Signal
FY2026 annual report (10-K filed 2026-02-13)
INCOME STATEMENT
? Revenue
25.915 billion USD 1.81% YoY
? Operating income
6.518 billion USD
? Net income
2.204 billion USD
? Free cash flow
1.116 billion USD
? EPS (diluted)
$0.61
? Dividend per share
$0.60
Click any row to expand the plain-English explanation. Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings.
Capital intelligence
Signal
Weighted Average Cost of Capital · Return on Invested Capital · Economic Value Added
ROIC
12.40%
WACC
10.52%
🟡 NEUTRAL — EVA Spread: 1.87%
? WACC
10.52%
? Cost of equity
11.75%
? Cost of debt (after-tax)
-0.50%
? Capital structure
E: 89.98% / D: 10.02%
? ROIC
12.40%
? EVA
$481M
? NOPAT
$3.2B
Risk-free rate: 4.25% (10Y Treasury) · Equity risk premium: 5.50% · Sources: total_debt: XBRL, operating_income: XBRL TTM (4Q sum), interest_expense: XBRL, invested_capital: Equity + Debt - Cash
Xavier consensus signals are intelligence outputs, not investment advice. All signals are generated by a multi-model AI system and reflect public information at time of generation. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future performance. Wall Street analyst consensus sourced from public disclosures, summarized weekly. Financial data sourced from SEC EDGAR and yfinance. Insider transactions sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 4 filings. Updated Jul 12, 2026.