MSJ-100 Index
1,036.65
Signal breadth
4 Bullish 93 Neutral 3 Bearish Avg confidence 6.16 / 10
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DECK
Deckers Outdoor Corporation
Consumer Discretionary · NYSE: DECK · MSJ-100
$106.60
▼ $1.20  (▼1.11%) today
After-hours: $106.60  ▲ 0.00%
Headquarters
Goleta, CA
Employees
6,000
Founded
1973
CEO
Mr. Stefano Caroti
Incorporated
Delaware
Fiscal Year End
March
Analyst price target range Free
Avg target $127.81
$107 now
Bear $90 Avg $128 Bull $184
Price history Free
Volume
1.90M
Avg volume
2.07M
Open
$108.59
Day high / low
$108.95 / $106.29
Market cap
$14.8B
About this company
Free
Deckers Outdoor Corporation designs, markets, and distributes innovative footwear, apparel, and accessories for both casual lifestyle and high-performance activities. The company's main proprietary brands, including UGG, HOKA, Teva, AHNU, and Koolaburra, compete across the fashion, casual, performance, running, and outdoor markets.
Business segments
10-K
UGG brand HOKA brand Other brands
Recent News
Loading news...
Earnings call: Q4 FY2026 FY2026
Intel
Free
May 23, 2026Confident
Dave Powers (President & Chief Executive Officer), Steve Fasching (Chief Financial Officer), Thomas George (Vice President, Corporate Strategy and Investor Relations)
Key metrics
For Q4 FY2026, Deckers reported revenue of approximately $1.12 billion, up around 9–10% year over year, and diluted EPS of about $0.96, beating consensus estimates of roughly $0.81.[1][9][10] Gross margin expanded modestly year over year, driven by favorable brand mix and higher direct‑to‑consumer sales, while operating margin remained in the high‑
Forward guidance
Management guided for FY2027 revenue growth in the high-single to low-double-digit range, driven by continued strength in the HOKA and UGG brands and further international expansion. They indicated FY2027 EPS growth would outpace revenue growth due to operating leverage, disciplined SG&A spending, and ongoing gross margin tailwinds from mix and DTC
Notable Q&A
One notable exchange involved an analyst asking about the sustainability of HOKA’s growth as the brand scales globally. Management responded that they see a long runway in performance running, trail, and lifestyle segments, supported by product innovation, broader distribution, and growing brand awa
Surprise items
The magnitude of the EPS and revenue beat versus expectations, alongside strong profitability metrics such as return on equity above 40%, was a positive surprise and reinforced the strength of the business.[1][9][10] Management also emphasized continued gross margin resilience and operating leverage
Q3 FY2026 (Feb 01, 2026) · Optimistic Q3 2026 (Jan 29, 2026) · Confident
Fundamentals
Signal
52-week high / low
$126.50 / $78.91
Forward P/E
12.8×
Trailing 15.2×
Dividend
Analysts covering
21
Avg target $127.81
Beta
1.17
vs. S&P 500
Short interest
6.7%
Float shorted
Buy
50%
Hold
42%
Sell
8%
Wall Street consensus — sourced weekly via public disclosures
Analyst coverage data sourced from public filings. Xavier analyst thesis summary available after weekly Perplexity scan completes.
Financial summary — Gemini analysis
Signal
Revenue
$4,985,612 thousand
16.3% YoY
Operating margin
23.6%
Net income
$966,091 thousand
Free cash flow
$958,352 thousand
Dividend / share
Total debt
$0 thousand
Cash: $1,889,188 thousand
CapEx guidance
$120,000 to $130,000
Earnings quality: HIGH
Cash conversion:1.1x
Non-recurring items: Gain from the sale of Sanuk brand and certain related assets ($11,168 thousand proceeds), Impairment charges for cloud computing arrangements ($4,290 thousand)
Source: SEC 10-K filing analyzed by Gemini 2.5 Flash · 2025-05-23
Xavier sector view:
Consumer Discretionary
See journal
View Consumer Discretionary journal ↗
Xavier's signal
NEUTRAL
↑ Changed from NEUTRAL · May 31, 2026
Signal
Confidence 6.5 / 10  ·  75% model agreement  ·  Scheduled Jun 07, 2026
DECK trades at a compelling 15x TTM P/E and 13x forward P/E with strong brand fundamentals in HOKA and UGG, but the stock has already sold off ~39% from its all-time high reflecting a well-known bear case. Near-term catalysts are absent: guidance has been cut below analyst consensus, tariffs represent a $150M annual headwind with only partial mitigation, and U.S. consumer sentiment remains under pressure. At ~$108, the stock is 14.6% below analyst consensus targets, offering potential upside, but macro headwinds and slowing growth depress conviction.
Strongest bull case
DECK trades at just 13x forward earnings — a historically cheap multiple for a company with two globally expanding, category-leading brands (HOKA and UGG) with consistent earnings beat history, aggressive share buybacks ($2.4B remaining authorization), and improving international momentum that offset soft domestic demand.
Strongest bear case
Deckers faces a confirmed $150M tariff impact for FY2026, with only $75-95M expected to be mitigated through selective price increases and cost sharing — the residual headwind will compress gross margins in the second half, and any DTC channel softness (DTC net sales already declined 0.8% in Q2) further pressures the higher-margin mix, directly threatening the earnings trajectory the bull case depends on.
What the market may be missing
The market is largely pricing DECK as a tariff and consumer sentiment story, but the stealth risk is HOKA's competitive moat erosion: ASICS, On Running, and other premium performance brands are gaining share in the road-running category at the same time HOKA's U.S. growth is decelerating — if HOKA's mid-teens growth guide for FY2026 slips, the entire forward earnings re-rate thesis collapses regardless of UGG's seasonal strength.
Model breakdown
Signal
Atlas (Claude) — NEUTRAL
Meridian (GPT-4) — NEUTRAL
Grayline (Grok) — NEUTRAL
Vantage (Gemini) — BULLISH
msj100_DECK_20260607T023001Z
Peer comparison
Signal
DECK
current
$106.60 ▼1.1%
TJX
NEUTRAL
$151.34
NKE
NEUTRAL
$44.37
HD
NEUTRAL
$343.30
TSLA
NEUTRAL
$407.76
Recent SEC filings
Signal
LOG
4 — 2026-06-02
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-06-02
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-06-02
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-06-02
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-06-02
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
CEO scorecard — Stefano Caroti
Signal summary
Full detail Pro
SC
Stefano Caroti
Chief Executive Officer and President · Deckers Outdoor Corporation
CEO since August 2024
Total compensation
$10,051,429 ▲ 112.8% YoY
Prior year: $4,724,554
Pay vs performance
Aligned
Board assessment
Say-on-pay approval
92%
Shareholder vote
Board independence
9/10 (90%)
Diversity: 90% (4 women)
Base salary$1,061,539
Bonus / incentive$2,927,198
Stock awards$5,999,093
CEO letter to shareholders
Signal
Full letter Pro
Stefano Caroti 2024 Annual Report CONFIDENT

Dear Stockholders,

As I reflect on my first year as CEO, I am incredibly proud of the progress made by the outstanding teams across the Deckers organization in fiscal year 2025. Our commitment to our long-term strategy, guided by our consumer-first approach and unique products that blend technology and comfort, drove record breaking results.

In fiscal year 2025, we delivered our highest-ever earnings per share, rising 30% above the prior year, with revenue climbing 16% year-over-year to nearly $5 billion – our fifth consecutive year of double-digit growth in both areas. Anchored by the continued strength of HOKA and UGG, our disciplined marketplace management produced operating margin of 23.6%, a 200-basis-point improvement over the prior year. We leveraged our strong balance sheet to repurchase $567 million in Deckers shares in fiscal year 2025, and in May 2025 our Board of Directors approved an increase of $2.25 billion to our share repurchase program authorization, furthering our ability to continue returning capital to stockholders.

HOKA and UGG remain two of the most in-demand and consumer-loved brands in the footwear industry, and both continued to capture market share as a result of our efforts to build brand awareness, elevate our products, and create meaningful connections with consumers around the world.

  • HOKA continued to be our fastest growing brand in fiscal year 2025, with revenue increasing 24% versus the prior year to $2.2 billion. Consumers migrating toward active lifestyles presents a tremendous opportunity for HOKA, expanding its total addressable market in the US and internationally. We are seeing momentum from recent technology upgrades to our top franchises, reflecting our relentless focus on delivering disruptive innovations that resonate with consumers.
  • UGG delivered an outstanding fiscal year 2025, growing revenue by 13% versus the prior year to $2.5 billion. The UGG brand's iconic designs and elevated presence across regions, channels, and categories led to significant gains in consumer acquisitions and retention. We are continuing to lean into our global opportunity to drive year-round wearability, grow the adoption of men's products, and extend the wins we are seeing with key styles.

We are entering fiscal year 2026 with a strong foundation, underpinned by the power of our industry-leading brands, best-in-class operating model, and fortified balance sheet. Despite increased macroeconomic uncertainty, our Board and leadership team remain confident in Deckers' long-term growth strategy, leaning on our agile marketplace operations, disciplined cost structure, and persistent innovation that can help us outpace a constantly evolving consumer landscape.

Deckers' success is made possible by our remarkable employees. Our team's passion for our brands is evident daily, and I am proud of their dedicated work to build our future. I would also like to acknowledge Cindy Davis, our newly appointed Board Chair. Cindy has contributed tremendous value as a director on our Board over the past seven years, and her leadership will support the Board's oversight of our continued growth and strategic execution. We thank Mike Devine for his more than fourteen years of service to Deckers, including his incredible leadership as Chair for six years.

Deckers is in the early miles of a long-distance run. We are off to an excellent start, and we are well equipped to continue on our path of growth and value creation. I am excited about the opportunities ahead to deliver value for our consumers and stockholders over the long-term. Thank you for your ongoing interest in Deckers.

Sincerely,
Stafane Certi
Stefano Caroti
Chief Executive Officer and President

Xavier analysis
The CEO expresses strong pride in record-breaking results, highlights sustained double-digit growth, and conveys confidence in the company's long-term strategy and future opportunities despite macroeconomic uncertainty.
Strategic themes by emphasis
#1Financial Performance & Growth
#2Brand Strength & Market Expansion
#3Talent & Leadership
#4Future Strategy & Resilience
6 named projects & initiatives
HOKA, UGG, Deckers' long-term growth strategy, Agile marketplace operations, Disciplined cost structure, Persistent innovation
4 other, 2 product
Forward-looking statements
6 total: 0 quantified, 5 directional, 1 vague
Capital allocation priority
Share Repurchases → Organic Growth (Brand Investment) → Returning Capital to Stockholders (General)
Key quotes
“Our commitment to our long-term strategy, guided by our consumer-first approach and unique products that blend technology and comfort, drove record breaking results.”
Summarizes the core drivers of the company's reported success and strategic focus.
“HOKA and UGG remain two of the most in-demand and consumer-loved brands in the footwear industry, and both continued to capture market share as a result of our efforts to build brand awareness, elevat”
Highlights the market leadership and strategic focus for the two primary growth brands.
View 2024 Annual Report (PDF) →3 letters on file (2024, 2023, 2022) · Full history with Pro
Executive compensation
Signal
NameTitleTotal compensation
Stefano CarotiChief Executive Officer, President and Director$10,051,429
Steven J. FaschingChief Financial Officer$4,638,863
Angela OgbechieChief Supply Chain Officer
Thomas GarciaChief Administrative and Legal Officer$3,241,546
Marco EllerkerPresident of Global Marketplace
Anne SpangenbergPresident of Fashion Lifestyle$4,218,829
Source: DEF 14A proxy statement · 2025-07-25
Governance
Pro
Dual-class shares: No
Poison pill: No
Clawback policy: Yes
Stock ownership req.: Yes
Shareholder proposals
Elect ten directors to serve until the annual meeting of stockholders to be held
FOR
Pending
Ratify the selection of KPMG LLP as our independent registered public accounting
FOR
Pending
Approve, on a non-binding advisory basis, the compensation of our Named Executiv
FOR
Pending
Debt intelligence
Pro
7 debt instruments · 1 CUSIP · 8 unique covenants
393.9x
Interest coverage
Credit facilities & debt instruments
Credit $400,000,000
CREDIT AGREEMENT dated as of December 19, 2022
Matures 2027-12-19 · Filed 2022-12-21
Floating · SOFR | EURIBOR | SONIA | CDOR | Prime | NYFRB Rate
Unsecured. The Loan Documents do not grant security interests in favor of the Lenders for the Loans.
CB1235052
Credit
Credit Agreement dated as of September 20, 2018, as amended by Amendment No. 1 dated as of September
Matures · Filed 2021-11-04
Floating · LIBOR | EURIBOR | CDOR Rate | SONIA | Alternate Base Rate (Prime Rate, NYFRB Rate) | SOFR (as benchmark replacement)
Credit $33,930,500.00
Second Modification Agreement (amending Term Loan Agreement dated July 9, 2014)
Matures · Filed 2019-05-30
Secured by a Deed of Trust, Assignment of Leases and Rents and Security Agreement (Including Fixture Filing) on real estate in Santa Barbara County, California.
Credit $400,000,000
CREDIT AGREEMENT dated as of September 20, 2018
Matures 2023-09-20 · Filed 2018-09-25
Floating · LIBOR | Prime | NYFRB Rate | CDOR Rate
Unsecured. The agreement mentions the release of liens from an 'Existing Credit Agreement' (Section 4.01(b)), implying this new facility is unsecured. Section 6.02 'Liens' lists permitted liens, but does not state the facility itself is secured. Indebtedness of the Real Estate Subsidiary related to mortgage financing (Section 6.01(k)) may be secured by Liens on the Headquarters Building (Section 6.02(e)), but this is separate from the main facility.
Credit
Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement
Matures · Filed 2018-05-30
Credit
Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement
Matures · Filed 2018-05-30
1 additional agreement on file
Financial covenants
Maximum Total Net Leverage Ratio
≤ 3.75x
Total Net Leverage Ratio (Consolidated Total Debt less Unrestricted Cash to Consolidated EBITDA)
CREDIT AGREEMENT dated as of December 19, 2022
Maximum Total Adjusted Leverage Ratio (for Permitted Acquisitions)
≤ 3.50x on a pro forma basis
Total Adjusted Leverage Ratio
Credit Agreement dated as of September 20, 2018, a
Maximum Total Adjusted Leverage Ratio
≤ 3.75 to 1.00
Total Adjusted Leverage Ratio
Second Modification Agreement (amending Term Loan
Minimum Consolidated EBITDAR to Consolidated Interest Expense plus Consolidated Rental Expense Ratio
> 2.25 to 1.00
(Consolidated EBITDAR) / (Consolidated Interest Expense + Consolidated Rental Expense)
Second Modification Agreement (amending Term Loan
Restricted Payments - Pro Forma Total Adjusted Leverage Ratio
≤ 3.50 to 1.00
Total Adjusted Leverage Ratio
Second Modification Agreement (amending Term Loan
Maximum Total Adjusted Leverage Ratio
≤ 3.75x (generally); ≤ 4.00x (for the fiscal quarter of a Specified Leveraged Acquisition and the next three succeeding fiscal quarters)
Total Adjusted Leverage Ratio
CREDIT AGREEMENT dated as of September 20, 2018
Minimum Consolidated EBITDAR to Interest and Rent Coverage Ratio
> 2.25x
Consolidated EBITDAR / (Consolidated Interest Expense + Consolidated Rental Expense)
CREDIT AGREEMENT dated as of September 20, 2018
Maximum Unsecured Indebtedness of Designated Subsidiaries
not to exceed $50,000,000
Aggregate outstanding unsecured Indebtedness of DBT, Deckers Shanghai, and/or Deckers Guangzhou
Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement
CUSIP identifiers (1 on file)
CB1235052
Cross-default risk
3 agreements contain cross-default provisions — a covenant breach on one facility may trigger default on others.
Xavier risk radar
Pro
Covenant headroom
Low leverage — no covenants required
Earnings quality
High quality (cash conversion 1.1x)
Risk trend
Risk increasing — The footwear, apparel, and accessories industry is subject to rapid changes in c
Mgmt narrative
Management tone: Cautiously optimistic
Analyst drift
Consensus Buy — targets stable
Insider sentiment
Pattern detection — 90 days needed
Signal history
Signal
DateDirectionConf.Agree.ThesisPriceType
Jun 07, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.5/10 75% DECK trades at a compelling 15x TTM P/E and 13x forward P/E with strong brand fundamentals in HOKA a... $108.13 Sched.
May 31, 2026 BULLISH 6.3/10 50% DECK trades at a compelling 13.7x forward P/E — a deep discount to the S&P 500 average — despite a d... $113.85 Sched.
May 24, 2026 BULLISH 6.5/10 50% DECK just reported Q4 FY2025 results on May 22, 2025 — the day before the current price — with FY202... $106.67 Sched.
May 17, 2026 NEUTRAL 5.9/10 75% DECK trades at a compelling 13.3x TTM P/E — well below the S&P 500 average — reflecting genuine risk... $93.56 Sched.
May 10, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.4/10 75% DECK trades at a compelling 14.3x TTM P/E — a steep discount to the S&P 500 and well below its own h... $100.42 Sched.
May 03, 2026 BULLISH 6.8/10 50% DECK trades at a compelling ~14x TTM P/E — a significant discount to the S&P 500 and near peer-group... $100.88 Sched.
Apr 12, 2026 BULLISH 6.2/10 50% DECK is trading at a significant discount to its 52-week high (~19%) and near its fair value estimat... $107.86 Sched.
Showing last 7 signals
DECK Deckers Outdoor Corporation
Signal
FY2026 annual report (10-K filed 2025-05-23)
INCOME STATEMENT
? Revenue
$4,985,612 thousand 16.3% YoY
? Operating income
$1,179,092 thousand
? Net income
$966,091 thousand
? Free cash flow
$958,352 thousand
Click any row to expand the plain-English explanation. Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings.
Capital intelligence
Signal
Weighted Average Cost of Capital · Return on Invested Capital · Economic Value Added
? WACC
10.67%
? Cost of equity
10.67%
? Cost of debt (after-tax)
4.35%
? Capital structure
E: 100.00% / D: 0.00%
? NOPAT
$998M
Risk-free rate: 4.25% (10Y Treasury) · Equity risk premium: 5.50% · Sources: total_debt: Gemini 10-K, operating_income: XBRL TTM (4Q sum)
Xavier consensus signals are intelligence outputs, not investment advice. All signals are generated by a multi-model AI system and reflect public information at time of generation. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future performance. Wall Street analyst consensus sourced from public disclosures, summarized weekly. Financial data sourced from SEC EDGAR and yfinance. Insider transactions sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 4 filings. Updated Jun 07, 2026.