MSJ-100 Index
1,036.65
Signal breadth
4 Bullish 93 Neutral 3 Bearish Avg confidence 6.16 / 10
View full MSJ-100 ↗
COST
Costco Wholesale Corporation
Consumer Staples · NYSE: COST · MSJ-100
$921.75
▼ $4.68  (▼0.51%) today
After-hours: $921.50  ▼ 0.03%
Headquarters
Issaquah, WA
Employees
341,000
Founded
1976
CEO
Mr. Ron M. Vachris
Incorporated
Washington
Fiscal Year End
August
Analyst price target range Free
Avg target $1,077.97
$922 now
Bear $740 Avg $1,078 Bull $1,315
Price history Free
Volume
2.41M
Avg volume
2.33M
Open
$921.38
Day high / low
$929.42 / $918.56
Market cap
$408.8B
About this company
Free
Costco Wholesale Corporation operates membership warehouses and e-commerce sites globally, offering a limited selection of nationally-branded and private-label products across various categories. The company's strategy focuses on low prices, high sales volumes, and rapid inventory turnover in the retail industry, complemented by ancillary services and other businesses.
Business segments
10-K
United States Canada Other International
Recent News
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Earnings call: Q2 FY2026 FY2026
Intel
Free
2026-02-29Optimistic
Craig Jelinek (Chief Executive Officer), Richard Galanti (Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer)
Key metrics
The quarter featured year-over-year increases in net sales and membership fees, driven by higher traffic and stable or modestly higher average ticket. Earnings per share improved compared to the same period last year, reflecting operating expense control and strong membership economics, while core merchandise margins remained broadly in line with r
Forward guidance
Management indicated that they expect continued steady growth in sales and membership income, supported by new warehouse openings and strong renewal rates. They guided to ongoing wage and benefit investments for employees and continued spending on logistics and technology infrastructure, but emphasized their intention to preserve cost discipline an
Notable Q&A
Analysts questioned management about inflation and consumer behavior, and management responded that they continue to see customers trading into value and bulk purchasing, with Costco maintaining its commitment to passing through savings and minimizing price increases. Another Q&A topic involved inte
Surprise items
Management highlighted particularly robust performance in certain discretionary categories and services businesses, which was somewhat unexpected given broader retail commentary about mixed discretionary spending. No significant unexpected one-time items or structural changes were disclosed that wou
Q3 FY2026 (May 29, 2026) · Confident Q3 2026 (May 28, 2026) · Confident
Fundamentals
Signal
52-week high / low
$1,096.50 / $844.06
Forward P/E
40.7×
Trailing 46.3×
Dividend
$5.88 / share
Yield 0.63%
Analysts covering
34
Avg target $1,077.97
Beta
0.87
vs. S&P 500
Short interest
1.6%
Float shorted
Buy
58%
Hold
37%
Sell
5%
Wall Street consensus — sourced weekly via public disclosures
Analyst coverage data sourced from public filings. Xavier analyst thesis summary available after weekly Perplexity scan completes.
Financial summary — Gemini analysis
Signal
Revenue
$249,625 million
5% change vs prior year YoY
Operating margin
3.7%
Net income
$7,367 million
Free cash flow
$6,629 million
Dividend / share
$19.36
Total debt
$5,919 million
Cash: $9,906 million
CapEx guidance
$6,000 to $6,500 million
Earnings quality: HIGH
Recurring revenue:2%
Cash conversion:1.5x
Non-recurring items: Special cash dividend payment of $6,655 million, Net non-recurring tax benefit of $63 million related to a transfer pricing settlement
Source: SEC 10-K filing analyzed by Gemini 2.5 Flash · 2025-10-08
Xavier sector view:
Consumer Staples
See journal
View Consumer Staples journal ↗
Xavier's signal
NEUTRAL
Signal
Confidence 6.6 / 10  ·  100% model agreement  ·  Scheduled Jul 12, 2026
Costco is a genuinely exceptional business — 10.6% June net sales growth, 89.7% membership renewal rates, and accelerating e-commerce — but the stock at 46x TTM P/E and ~16% below its 52-week high already absorbed a sentiment reset after June comps decelerated sharply to 8.8% from May's 12.5%, triggering a 4.5% single-day selloff on July 9. With Q4 free cash flow consensus modeling a 71% YoY decline due to $6.5B capex and delayed tariff refunds, and a Roth MKM sell rating adding to mixed analyst signals, the near-term risk/reward is balanced at best. The bull case requires multiple expansion at already-elevated multiples, which a neutral-to-bearish macro regime does not support.
Strongest bull case
June net sales of $29.24B grew 10.6% YoY with digitally-enabled comps up 20.9%, and the Q3 membership renewal rate of 92.2% in the US/Canada confirms the defensive membership moat that underpins the entire Costco investment thesis.
Strongest bear case
Comp sales decelerated materially to 8.8% in June from 12.5% in May, Q4 2026 free cash flow consensus is modeled to collapse 71% YoY to just $550M amid $6.5B capex, and the stock trades at ~46-47x trailing earnings — well above its own 10-year average near 39x — leaving no margin of safety if earnings growth disappoints or macro deteriorates.
What the market may be missing
The Street is treating the Q3 gas-driven comp surge (record fuel volumes from Middle East conflict-driven demand) as a durable traffic driver via new member loyalty, but this was an exogenous, non-recurring spike. If energy prices normalize or the geopolitical driver fades, comp reacceleration from Q4 onward looks fragile, making the consensus FCF recovery assumption in FY2027 fragile as well — a risk obscured by the headline membership renewal rate strength.
Model breakdown
Signal
Atlas (Claude) — NEUTRAL
Meridian (GPT-4) — NEUTRAL
Grayline (Grok) — NEUTRAL
Vantage (Gemini) — NEUTRAL
msj100_COST_20260712T003715Z
Peer comparison
Signal
COST
current
$921.75 ▼0.5%
KR
NEUTRAL
$60.54
PM
NEUTRAL
$181.62
KO
NEUTRAL
$83.49
PEP
NEUTRAL
$137.38
Recent SEC filings
Signal
LOG
4 — 2026-07-14
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
P2 COND
8-K — 2026-07-08
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-06-25
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
P2 AUTO
8-K — 2026-05-28
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
P2 COND
8-K — 2026-04-15
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
CEO scorecard — Ron M. Vachris
Signal summary
Full detail Pro
RM
Ron M. Vachris
Chief Executive Officer, President and Director · Costco Wholesale Corporation
CEO since January 2024
Total compensation
$13,932,597 ▲ 13.9% YoY
Prior year: $12,229,741
Pay vs performance
Aligned
Board assessment
Say-on-pay approval
95%
Shareholder vote
Board independence
9/10 (90%)
Diversity: 60% (5 women)
Base salary$1,183,270
Bonus / incentive
Stock awards$12,036,800
Executive appearances
Intel
Free
Investor DayMar 05, 2026
Costco Wholesale Corporation Q3 FY2025 Earnings Call Source ↗
Mr. Ron M. Vachris (CEO) · Costco Wholesale Corporation (virtual)
Ron Vachris discussed Costco's strategy to return value from tariff refunds to members through lower prices amid ongoing class action lawsuits over passed-through tariff costs. He emphasized commitment to competitive pricing on imported goods. Forwar
“"Our commitment will be to find the best way to return this value to our members through lower prices and..."”
CEO letter to shareholders
Signal
Full letter Pro
Ron M. Vachris 2025 Annual Report OPTIMISTIC

Dear Costco Shareholders,

Our commitment to provide our members with an assortment of great quality merchandise and services that offer excellent, discovery and meets their everyday needs at the lowest possible price is at the core of what makes Costco successful. Our employees are the heartbeat of our company, so they bring this to life for our members every day, and their experience and dedication is the key to sustaining our culture and our continued success.

We are committed to providing our employees with industry-leading pay and benefits around the world. In 2025, we made additional investments in employee wages, bringing our average hourly wage in the U.S. to approximately $32 for hourly employees. When healthcare, retirement, and other benefits are included, total compensation averaged approximately $46 per hour for those hourly employees.

Net sales for fiscal year 2025 totaled $269.9 billion, an increase of 8%. Net income was $8.1 billion, or $18.21 per diluted share, an increase of 10%. Revenue from membership fees increased by 10% to $5.3 billion, and our membership base expanded to over 145 million cardholders, with a 90% renewal rate. Costco's expansion in fiscal 2025 included 24 net new locations: 15 in the U.S., two each in Canada, Mexico, and Japan, and one each in Spain, Sweden, and South Korea, resulting in 914 locations.

Our global buying team are doing a remarkable job navigating a changing economic and geopolitical environment, while continuing to deliver increased value for our members. They are achieving this by working closely with our suppliers, collaborating globally to identify new, great-value items, expanding in-country production and optimizing our supply chain for efficiency. We are leveraging the benefits of our limited sku count model to dynamically adjust the items we sell, to focus on those which are the most productive, allowing us to lower costs and pass on the savings.

We are also focused on longer-term decisions that will ensure we are able to increase member values relative to the market in the future, including investments in our Kirkland Signature private label and Digital capabilities.

Kirkland Signature™ is an important component of our value proposition, typically offering 15-20% savings compared to the national brand equivalent item, with equal or better quality. We celebrated the 30th anniversary of our Kirkland Signature trademark this year, and it continues to enjoy strong growth, now representing approximately $82B of annual revenue globally. In fiscal year 2025, to support future growth we expanded our manufacturing production capabilities in meat and coffee and introduced a wide range of new Kirkland Signature items, including food-storage bags, grass-fed meat sticks, and ready-to-drink cocktails.

Our digital growth globally outpaced overall sales growth in 2025, and members who engage with us through our digital channels are also more loyal. We operate eight e-commerce platforms around the world and digitally enabled sales, those initiated through a digital device and fulfilled through a warehouse or distribution center and Costco Travel, represented approximately $27B of net sales last year. E-commerce channels provide us with the opportunity to offer an expanded selection in various categories, including precious metals, ticket programs, appliances, home furnishings, consumer electronics, lawn and garden products, health and beauty, apparel, and groceries. As we continue our investments in technology, we are building a multi-year roadmap to create a more seamless digital experience for members. In 2025, we delivered numerous enhancements to the member experience, both in the warehouse and online, including improvements to the Costco app, increasing response time and reliability, fine-tuning our Digital Membership Card, and adding key features such as warehouse inventory lookup and the Costco Wallet.

We remain committed to sustainability, as these initiatives help us secure the long-term product supply needed to support future growth. Our plans include diversifying our supply chain and expanding in-country production. By minimizing our environmental footprint, we also eliminate waste and lower costs. In 2025, we diverted 82.8% of waste from landfills, reducing our water intensity by 4.4%, and reduced plastic in Kirkland Signature packaging by 1.5 million pounds. You can read more about our efforts in our 2025 Annual Sustainability Report.

Finally, I would like to thank our more than 341,000 employees around the world, who continue to demonstrate extraordinary dedication to serving our members, as well as our 145 million members worldwide, for their continued loyalty and trust in Costco. May this next year bring you and your families happiness and prosperity.

Sincerely,

Ron M. Vachris
President & Chief Executive Officer

Xavier analysis
The letter consistently highlights strong financial performance, successful global expansion, strategic investments in digital and private label brands, and a deep commitment to employees and members, all framed with positive and forward-looking language.
Strategic themes by emphasis
#1Member Value & Experience
#2Employee Commitment & Well-being
#3Growth & Expansion
#4Supply Chain Efficiency & Innovation
#5Kirkland Signature Brand Development
#6Digital Transformation
6 named projects & initiatives
Kirkland Signature, Costco app, Digital Membership Card, Costco Wallet, 2025 Annual Sustainability Report, Costco Travel
4 product, 1 other, 1 service
Forward-looking statements
8 total: 1 quantified, 5 directional, 2 vague
Capital allocation priority
Employee Compensation & Benefits → Global Expansion (New Locations) → Digital Capabilities & Technology Investments → Kirkland Signature Brand Investments
Key quotes
“Our commitment to provide our members with an assortment of great quality merchandise and services that offer excellent, discovery and meets their everyday needs at the lowest possible price is at the”
This sentence articulates Costco's fundamental value proposition and core business strategy.
“Our employees are the heartbeat of our company, so they bring this to life for our members every day, and their experience and dedication is the key to sustaining our culture and our continued success”
This highlights the paramount importance of employees to Costco's success and cultural values.
View 2025 Annual Report (PDF) →3 letters on file (2025, 2024, 2023) · Full history with Pro
Executive compensation
Signal
NameTitleTotal compensation
Gary MillerchipExecutive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer$6,770,513
Javier PolitExecutive Vice President, Chief Information and Digital Officer$7,508,209
Richard A. GalantiFormer Executive Vice President$6,504,736
Russ D. MillerSenior Executive Vice President, COO - U.S. and Mexico Operations$5,181,678
Pierre RielExecutive Vice President, COO - International Division$5,287,017
Source: DEF 14A proxy statement · 2025-12-04
Governance
Pro
Dual-class shares: No
Poison pill: No
Clawback policy: Yes
Stock ownership req.: Yes
Shareholder proposals
Shareholders request that the Board of Directors of Costco conduct an evaluation
AGAINST
Pending
Debt intelligence
Pro
0.18x
Debt / Equity
73.4x
Interest coverage
-0.8x
Net Debt / EBITDA
$-11.6B
Net debt
7%
Debt / Assets
Interest coverage trend (EBITDA / Interest expense)
74.2x
24-11
79.7x
25-02
88.1x
25-05
87.4x
25-11
97.1x
26-02
106.6x
26-05
Xavier risk radar
Pro
Covenant headroom
Low leverage — no covenants required
Earnings quality
High quality (cash conversion 1.5x)
Risk trend
Risk increasing — Increased security threats, sophisticated cyber misconduct, and failure to maint
Mgmt narrative
Management tone: Bullish
Analyst drift
Consensus Buy — targets stable
Insider sentiment
Pattern detection — 90 days needed
Signal history
Signal
DateDirectionConf.Agree.ThesisPriceType
Jul 12, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.6/10 100% Costco is a genuinely exceptional business — 10.6% June net sales growth, 89.7% membership renewal r... $916.25 Sched.
Jul 11, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.7/10 100% COST is a high-quality defensive retailer, but at ~46x trailing and ~40x forward earnings, the stock... $916.25 Sched.
Jun 07, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.6/10 100% Costco just reported a genuinely strong Q3 FY2026 — 11.6% revenue growth, 15% EPS growth, 9.8% comps... $971.87 Sched.
May 31, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.4/10 100% Costco just reported Q3 FY2026 results that beat on revenue ($70.53B vs. $69.81B expected) but deliv... $956.32 Sched.
May 24, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.4/10 100% COST is a best-in-class operator with genuine earnings momentum — April comparable sales surged 11.6... $1,028.24 Sched.
May 17, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.5/10 75% Costco is an undeniably elite business — April net sales surged 13.0% YoY to $23.92B and Q2 FY2026 n... $1,048.95 Sched.
May 10, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.6/10 100% Costco's underlying business is genuinely exceptional — April net sales surged 13% YoY to $23.92B, c... $1,008.79 Sched.
May 03, 2026 NEUTRAL 7.0/10 75% COST is a best-in-class compounder with strong March sales (+11.3% YoY), membership fee momentum, an... $1,011.70 Sched.
Apr 17, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.7/10 75% Costco is an exceptional business — March net sales grew 11.3% YoY and Q2 FY2026 comps rose 7.4% — b... $993.91 Event
Apr 17, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.2/10 100% Costco's underlying business is genuinely strong — 11.3% March sales growth, 92%+ renewal rates post... $987.21 Event
Apr 12, 2026 BULLISH 6.7/10 75% Costco just reported blowout March sales of $28.41B, up 11.3% YoY — one of its strongest monthly pri... $998.47 Sched.
Showing last 11 signals
COST Costco Wholesale Corporation
Signal
FY2026 annual report (10-K filed 2025-10-08)
INCOME STATEMENT
? Revenue
$249,625 million 5% change vs prior year YoY
? Operating income
$9,285 million
? Net income
$7,367 million
? Free cash flow
$6,629 million
? EPS (diluted)
$4.93
? Dividend per share
$19.36
Click any row to expand the plain-English explanation. Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings.
Capital intelligence
Signal
Weighted Average Cost of Capital · Return on Invested Capital · Economic Value Added
ROIC
43.83%
WACC
8.93%
🟢 VALUE CREATOR — EVA Spread: 34.90%
? WACC
8.93%
? Cost of equity
9.05%
? Cost of debt (after-tax)
0.45%
? Capital structure
E: 98.63% / D: 1.37%
? ROIC
43.83%
? EVA
$7.1B
? NOPAT
$8.9B
Risk-free rate: 4.25% (10Y Treasury) · Equity risk premium: 5.50% · Sources: total_debt: XBRL, operating_income: XBRL TTM (4Q sum), interest_expense: XBRL, invested_capital: Equity + Debt - Cash
Xavier consensus signals are intelligence outputs, not investment advice. All signals are generated by a multi-model AI system and reflect public information at time of generation. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future performance. Wall Street analyst consensus sourced from public disclosures, summarized weekly. Financial data sourced from SEC EDGAR and yfinance. Insider transactions sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 4 filings. Updated Jul 12, 2026.