MSJ-100 Index
1,011.24
Signal breadth
2 Bullish 86 Neutral 12 Bearish Avg confidence 6.18 / 10
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COST
Costco Wholesale Corporation
Consumer Staples · NYSE: COST · MSJ-100
$1,076.47
▲ $27.52  (▲2.62%) today
After-hours: $1,076.00  ▼ 0.04%
Headquarters
Issaquah, WA
Employees
341,000
Founded
1976
CEO
Mr. Ron M. Vachris
Incorporated
Washington
Fiscal Year End
August
Analyst price target range Free
Avg target $1,072.91
$1,076 now
Bear $650 Avg $1,073 Bull $1,315
Price history Free
Volume
2.18M
Avg volume
1.81M
Open
$1,050.00
Day high / low
$1,079.83 / $1,045.00
Market cap
$477.6B
About this company
Free
Costco Wholesale Corporation operates membership warehouses and e-commerce sites globally, offering a limited selection of nationally-branded and private-label products across various categories. The company's strategy focuses on low prices, high sales volumes, and rapid inventory turnover in the retail industry, complemented by ancillary services and other businesses.
Business segments
10-K
United States Canada Other International
Recent news
Live
Free
Earnings call: Q3 2026 2026
Intel
Free
May 28, 2026Confident
● Full transcript on file
Richard Galanti (CEO), Gary Millerchip (CFO)
Key metrics
Net sales up 9.5% to $70.2B; net income $2.1B (EPS $4.85); comp sales +8.2%; e-commerce +22%; membership renewal rate 92.5%.
Forward guidance
Company expects continued strong comparable sales growth amid moderating inflation. Membership fee increases under consideration for late 2026. Expansion plans on track with 25-30 new warehouses globally in FY2026.
Notable Q&A
Analyst (Citigroup): Impact of potential tariffs? Management: Monitoring closely, sourcing diversification mitigating risks, no major impact expected. Analyst (JPMorgan): Consumer spending trends? Management: Traffic and basket size strong, value proposition resonating.
Surprise items
Higher-than-expected e-commerce growth; announcement of executive stock repurchase program.
April 2026 (May 06, 2026) · Neutral Q2 2026 (Mar 06, 2026) · Confident
Fundamentals
Signal
52-week high / low
$1,079.83 / $844.06
Forward P/E
47.8×
Trailing 56.1×
Dividend
$5.88 / share
Yield 0.56%
Analysts covering
32
Avg target $1,072.91
Beta
0.91
vs. S&P 500
Short interest
1.5%
Float shorted
Buy
61%
Hold
33%
Sell
6%
Wall Street consensus — sourced weekly via public disclosures
Analyst coverage data sourced from public filings. Xavier analyst thesis summary available after weekly Perplexity scan completes.
Financial summary — Gemini analysis
Signal
Revenue
$249,625 million
5% change vs prior year YoY
Operating margin
3.7%
Net income
$7,367 million
Free cash flow
$6,629 million
Dividend / share
$19.36
Total debt
$5,919 million
Cash: $9,906 million
CapEx guidance
$6,000 to $6,500 million
Earnings quality: HIGH
Recurring revenue:2%
Cash conversion:1.5x
Non-recurring items: Special cash dividend payment of $6,655 million, Net non-recurring tax benefit of $63 million related to a transfer pricing settlement
Source: SEC 10-K filing analyzed by Gemini 2.5 Flash · 2025-10-08
Xavier sector view:
Consumer Staples
See journal
View Consumer Staples journal ↗
Xavier's signal
NEUTRAL
Signal
Confidence 6.5 / 10  ·  75% model agreement  ·  Scheduled May 17, 2026
Costco is an undeniably elite business — April net sales surged 13.0% YoY to $23.92B and Q2 FY2026 net income rose nearly 14% — but at 54x TTM P/E and 46x forward P/E with the stock sitting within 2% of its 52-week high, virtually all of this operational excellence is priced in. The analyst consensus target of ~$1,073 implies only ~2.3% upside from current levels, offering an asymmetric risk/reward that does not favor new longs over the next 5 trading days, especially with Q3 earnings not until May 28.
Strongest bull case
Exceptional and accelerating comparable sales momentum — April 2026 comps of +11.6% total and +18.8% digitally-enabled — validates the membership-driven model as a genuine consumer staples safe haven in a bearish macro regime, supporting the premium multiple as a flight-to-quality trade.
Strongest bear case
The stock is trading within ~1.7% of its 52-week high at a TTM P/E of 54x with a PEG near 5, while University of Michigan consumer sentiment hit a historic low of 48.2 in May 2026, insider EVPs sold shares between $991–$1,003 in March/April, and the next 5 trading days offer no positive catalyst before the May 28 earnings report — creating a lopsided risk profile where any macro deterioration or tariff escalation headlines could compress the multiple meaningfully.
What the market may be missing
The calendar tailwind in April's 13% sales print (one extra shopping day vs. year-ago due to Easter shift) likely overstates underlying momentum; adjusted comps of +7.8% ex-FX and gas are solid but decelerating vs. Q2's +9.1% headline, meaning the May 28 Q3 earnings report carries modest beat risk if the market has extrapolated April's inflated headline into consensus estimates.
Model breakdown
Signal
Atlas (Claude) — NEUTRAL
Meridian (GPT-4) — NEUTRAL
Grayline (Grok) — BEARISH
Vantage (Gemini) — NEUTRAL
msj100_COST_20260517T023001Z
Peer comparison
Signal
COST
current
$1,076.47 ▲2.6%
KR
NEUTRAL
$66.02
CL
NEUTRAL
$88.13
MO
NEUTRAL
$73.09
PM
NEUTRAL
$189.61
Recent SEC filings
Signal
P2 COND
8-K — 2026-04-15
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
CEO scorecard — Ron M. Vachris
Signal summary
Full detail Pro
RM
Ron M. Vachris
Chief Executive Officer, President and Director · Costco Wholesale Corporation
CEO since January 2024
Total compensation
$13,932,597 ▲ 13.9% YoY
Prior year: $12,229,741
Pay vs performance
Aligned
Board assessment
Say-on-pay approval
95%
Shareholder vote
Board independence
9/10 (90%)
Diversity: 60% (5 women)
Base salary$1,183,270
Bonus / incentive
Stock awards$12,036,800
Executive appearances
Intel
Free
Investor DayMar 05, 2026
Costco Wholesale Corporation Q3 FY2025 Earnings Call Source ↗
Mr. Ron M. Vachris (CEO) · Costco Wholesale Corporation (virtual)
Ron Vachris discussed Costco's strategy to return value from tariff refunds to members through lower prices amid ongoing class action lawsuits over passed-through tariff costs. He emphasized commitment to competitive pricing on imported goods. Forwar
“"Our commitment will be to find the best way to return this value to our members through lower prices and..."”
CEO letter to shareholders
Signal
Full letter Pro
Ron M. Vachris 2025 Annual Report OPTIMISTIC

Dear Costco Shareholders,

Our commitment to provide our members with an assortment of great quality merchandise and services that offer excellent, discovery and meets their everyday needs at the lowest possible price is at the core of what makes Costco successful. Our employees are the heartbeat of our company, so they bring this to life for our members every day, and their experience and dedication is the key to sustaining our culture and our continued success.

We are committed to providing our employees with industry-leading pay and benefits around the world. In 2025, we made additional investments in employee wages, bringing our average hourly wage in the U.S. to approximately $32 for hourly employees. When healthcare, retirement, and other benefits are included, total compensation averaged approximately $46 per hour for those hourly employees.

Net sales for fiscal year 2025 totaled $269.9 billion, an increase of 8%. Net income was $8.1 billion, or $18.21 per diluted share, an increase of 10%. Revenue from membership fees increased by 10% to $5.3 billion, and our membership base expanded to over 145 million cardholders, with a 90% renewal rate. Costco's expansion in fiscal 2025 included 24 net new locations: 15 in the U.S., two each in Canada, Mexico, and Japan, and one each in Spain, Sweden, and South Korea, resulting in 914 locations.

Our global buying team are doing a remarkable job navigating a changing economic and geopolitical environment, while continuing to deliver increased value for our members. They are achieving this by working closely with our suppliers, collaborating globally to identify new, great-value items, expanding in-country production and optimizing our supply chain for efficiency. We are leveraging the benefits of our limited sku count model to dynamically adjust the items we sell, to focus on those which are the most productive, allowing us to lower costs and pass on the savings.

We are also focused on longer-term decisions that will ensure we are able to increase member values relative to the market in the future, including investments in our Kirkland Signature private label and Digital capabilities.

Kirkland Signature™ is an important component of our value proposition, typically offering 15-20% savings compared to the national brand equivalent item, with equal or better quality. We celebrated the 30th anniversary of our Kirkland Signature trademark this year, and it continues to enjoy strong growth, now representing approximately $82B of annual revenue globally. In fiscal year 2025, to support future growth we expanded our manufacturing production capabilities in meat and coffee and introduced a wide range of new Kirkland Signature items, including food-storage bags, grass-fed meat sticks, and ready-to-drink cocktails.

Our digital growth globally outpaced overall sales growth in 2025, and members who engage with us through our digital channels are also more loyal. We operate eight e-commerce platforms around the world and digitally enabled sales, those initiated through a digital device and fulfilled through a warehouse or distribution center and Costco Travel, represented approximately $27B of net sales last year. E-commerce channels provide us with the opportunity to offer an expanded selection in various categories, including precious metals, ticket programs, appliances, home furnishings, consumer electronics, lawn and garden products, health and beauty, apparel, and groceries. As we continue our investments in technology, we are building a multi-year roadmap to create a more seamless digital experience for members. In 2025, we delivered numerous enhancements to the member experience, both in the warehouse and online, including improvements to the Costco app, increasing response time and reliability, fine-tuning our Digital Membership Card, and adding key features such as warehouse inventory lookup and the Costco Wallet.

We remain committed to sustainability, as these initiatives help us secure the long-term product supply needed to support future growth. Our plans include diversifying our supply chain and expanding in-country production. By minimizing our environmental footprint, we also eliminate waste and lower costs. In 2025, we diverted 82.8% of waste from landfills, reducing our water intensity by 4.4%, and reduced plastic in Kirkland Signature packaging by 1.5 million pounds. You can read more about our efforts in our 2025 Annual Sustainability Report.

Finally, I would like to thank our more than 341,000 employees around the world, who continue to demonstrate extraordinary dedication to serving our members, as well as our 145 million members worldwide, for their continued loyalty and trust in Costco. May this next year bring you and your families happiness and prosperity.

Sincerely,

Ron M. Vachris
President & Chief Executive Officer

Xavier analysis
The letter consistently highlights strong financial performance, successful global expansion, strategic investments in digital and private label brands, and a deep commitment to employees and members, all framed with positive and forward-looking language.
Strategic themes by emphasis
#1Member Value & Experience
#2Employee Commitment & Well-being
#3Growth & Expansion
#4Supply Chain Efficiency & Innovation
#5Kirkland Signature Brand Development
#6Digital Transformation
6 named projects & initiatives
Kirkland Signature, Costco app, Digital Membership Card, Costco Wallet, 2025 Annual Sustainability Report, Costco Travel
4 product, 1 other, 1 service
Forward-looking statements
8 total: 1 quantified, 5 directional, 2 vague
Capital allocation priority
Employee Compensation & Benefits → Global Expansion (New Locations) → Digital Capabilities & Technology Investments → Kirkland Signature Brand Investments
Key quotes
“Our commitment to provide our members with an assortment of great quality merchandise and services that offer excellent, discovery and meets their everyday needs at the lowest possible price is at the”
This sentence articulates Costco's fundamental value proposition and core business strategy.
“Our employees are the heartbeat of our company, so they bring this to life for our members every day, and their experience and dedication is the key to sustaining our culture and our continued success”
This highlights the paramount importance of employees to Costco's success and cultural values.
View 2025 Annual Report (PDF) →3 letters on file (2025, 2024, 2023) · Full history with Pro
Executive compensation
Signal
NameTitleTotal compensation
Gary MillerchipExecutive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer$6,770,513
Javier PolitExecutive Vice President, Chief Information and Digital Officer$7,508,209
Richard A. GalantiFormer Executive Vice President$6,504,736
Russ D. MillerSenior Executive Vice President, COO - U.S. and Mexico Operations$5,181,678
Pierre RielExecutive Vice President, COO - International Division$5,287,017
Source: DEF 14A proxy statement · 2025-12-04
Governance
Pro
Dual-class shares: No
Poison pill: No
Clawback policy: Yes
Stock ownership req.: Yes
Shareholder proposals
Shareholders request that the Board of Directors of Costco conduct an evaluation
AGAINST
Pending
Debt intelligence
Pro
0.18x
Debt / Equity
73.4x
Interest coverage
-0.8x
Net Debt / EBITDA
$-11.6B
Net debt
7%
Debt / Assets
Interest coverage trend (EBITDA / Interest expense)
53.6x
24-05
74.2x
24-11
79.7x
25-02
72.3x
25-05
87.4x
25-11
97.1x
26-02
Xavier risk radar
Pro
Covenant headroom
Low leverage — no covenants required
Earnings quality
High quality (cash conversion 1.5x)
Risk trend
Risk increasing — Increased security threats, sophisticated cyber misconduct, and failure to maint
Mgmt narrative
Management tone: Bullish
Analyst drift
Consensus Buy — targets stable
Insider sentiment
Pattern detection — 90 days needed
Signal history
Signal
DateDirectionConf.Agree.ThesisPriceType
May 17, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.5/10 75% Costco is an undeniably elite business — April net sales surged 13.0% YoY to $23.92B and Q2 FY2026 n... $1,048.95 Sched.
May 10, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.6/10 100% Costco's underlying business is genuinely exceptional — April net sales surged 13% YoY to $23.92B, c... $1,008.79 Sched.
May 03, 2026 NEUTRAL 7.0/10 75% COST is a best-in-class compounder with strong March sales (+11.3% YoY), membership fee momentum, an... $1,011.70 Sched.
Apr 17, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.7/10 75% Costco is an exceptional business — March net sales grew 11.3% YoY and Q2 FY2026 comps rose 7.4% — b... $993.91 Event
Apr 17, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.2/10 100% Costco's underlying business is genuinely strong — 11.3% March sales growth, 92%+ renewal rates post... $987.21 Event
Apr 12, 2026 BULLISH 6.7/10 75% Costco just reported blowout March sales of $28.41B, up 11.3% YoY — one of its strongest monthly pri... $998.47 Sched.
Showing last 6 signals
COST Costco Wholesale Corporation
Signal
FY2026 annual report (10-K filed 2025-10-08)
INCOME STATEMENT
? Revenue
$249,625 million 5% change vs prior year YoY
? Operating income
$9,285 million
? Net income
$7,367 million
? Free cash flow
$6,629 million
? EPS (diluted)
$4.58
? Dividend per share
$19.36
Click any row to expand the plain-English explanation. Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings.
Capital intelligence
Signal
Weighted Average Cost of Capital · Return on Invested Capital · Economic Value Added
ROIC
10.06%
WACC
9.14%
🟡 NEUTRAL — EVA Spread: 0.92%
? WACC
9.14%
? Cost of equity
9.24%
? Cost of debt (after-tax)
0.45%
? Capital structure
E: 98.81% / D: 1.19%
? ROIC
10.06%
? EVA
$188M
? NOPAT
$2.1B
Risk-free rate: 4.25% (10Y Treasury) · Equity risk premium: 5.50% · Sources: total_debt: XBRL, operating_income: XBRL, interest_expense: XBRL, invested_capital: Equity + Debt - Cash
Xavier consensus signals are intelligence outputs, not investment advice. All signals are generated by a multi-model AI system and reflect public information at time of generation. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future performance. Wall Street analyst consensus sourced from public disclosures, summarized weekly. Financial data sourced from SEC EDGAR and yfinance. Insider transactions sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 4 filings. Updated May 17, 2026.