MSJ-100 Index
1,036.65
Signal breadth
4 Bullish 93 Neutral 3 Bearish Avg confidence 6.16 / 10
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COP
ConocoPhillips
Energy · NYSE: COP · MSJ-100
$111.87
▼ $0.98  (▼0.87%) today
After-hours: $111.04  ▼ 0.74%
Headquarters
Houston, TX
Employees
9,700
Founded
1875
CEO
Mr. Ryan M. Lance
Incorporated
Delaware
Fiscal Year End
December
Analyst price target range Free
Avg target $140.80
$112 now
Bear $115 Avg $141 Bull $183
Price history Free
Volume
6.46M
Avg volume
7.79M
Open
$113.08
Day high / low
$113.75 / $110.14
Market cap
$136.3B
About this company
Free
ConocoPhillips is an independent exploration and production (E&P) company operating globally across 14 countries. It focuses on a diverse, low-cost portfolio including unconventional plays, conventional assets, LNG developments, oil sands, and global exploration prospects.
Business segments
10-K
Alaska Lower 48 Canada Europe, Middle East and North Africa Asia Pacific
Recent News
Loading news...
Earnings call: Q1 2026 2026
Intel
Free
May 07, 2026Confident
● Full transcript on file
Ryan Lance (Chairman and Chief Executive Officer), William "Bill" Bullock (Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer), Dominic Macklon (Executive Vice President, Strategy, Sustainability and Technology), Andy O'Brien (Senior Vice President, Global Operations)
Key metrics
For Q1 2026, ConocoPhillips reported adjusted earnings per share around the mid‑$1 range, modestly above consensus expectations, driven by stronger liquids realizations and disciplined costs. Total company production was roughly in line with the prior year quarter, with Lower 48 output up low‑single digits year over year and LNG volumes steady. The
Forward guidance
Management reiterated its capital expenditure guidance for 2026, emphasizing that total capex remains on track with prior plans and is focused on high-return projects in the Lower 48, LNG, and key international assets. They reaffirmed their commitment to returning at least 45% of cash from operations to shareholders through base dividends, variable
Notable Q&A
One notable Q&A exchange featured an analyst asking about the trajectory of Lower 48 drilling and completion activity given the current strip and service‑cost environment; management responded that they plan only a measured activity uptick, prioritizing returns and flexibility over volume growth and
Surprise items
The upside earnings surprise versus consensus, despite a soft commodity tape earlier in the quarter, was a positive for the stock and highlighted continued cost discipline. Management’s reiteration of the 45% of CFO shareholder return framework and flat‑to‑slightly‑up production profile, without any
Q4 2025 (Feb 12, 2026) · Confident (Nov 14, 2025) ·
Fundamentals
Signal
52-week high / low
$135.87 / $85.57
Forward P/E
12.6×
Trailing 19.1×
Dividend
$3.36 / share
Yield 2.98%
Analysts covering
25
Avg target $140.80
Beta
0.12
vs. S&P 500
Short interest
1.6%
Float shorted
Buy
73%
Hold
27%
Sell
0%
Wall Street consensus — sourced weekly via public disclosures
Analyst coverage data sourced from public filings. Xavier analyst thesis summary available after weekly Perplexity scan completes.
Financial summary — Gemini analysis
Signal
Revenue
$58,944 million
7.67% YoY
Operating margin
18.6%
Net income
$7,988 million
Free cash flow
$7,243 million
Dividend / share
$3.18
Total debt
$23,444 million
Cash: $6,497 million
CapEx guidance
$12 billion
Earnings quality: MEDIUM
Cash conversion:2.5x
Non-recurring items: $1 billion of one-time benefits (primarily cash tax benefits from net operating losses) related to the Marathon Oil acquisition, Severance costs of $286 million related to employee workforce restructuring, Gains on asset dispositions totaling $731 million
Source: SEC 10-K filing analyzed by Gemini 2.5 Flash · 2026-02-17
Xavier sector view:
Energy
See journal
View Energy journal ↗
Xavier's signal
NEUTRAL
Signal
Confidence 5.5 / 10  ·  100% model agreement  ·  Scheduled Jul 12, 2026
COP trades at ~20% below its 52-week high with a reasonable forward P/E of ~12x, but the oil commodity backdrop is deeply ambiguous: the EIA forecasts Brent averaging $74/b in Q3 and declining toward $65/b in 2027 as Middle East supply normalizes, which directly caps COP's earnings recovery even as geopolitical risk premium temporarily supports spot prices. The US-Iran ceasefire breakdown re-injected a short-term risk premium into crude (~$72-76 WTI), partially reflected in COP's recent bounce, but this is a coin-flip macro variable with no durable directional edge over 5 trading days.
Strongest bull case
COP is a pure-play E&P with direct leverage to a fragile but present geopolitical risk premium in crude — Strait of Hormuz disruptions remain real, traffic is still significantly below normal, and any escalation spike in WTI would sharply lift COP's realized prices and FCF; Goldman Sachs reiterated Buy with COP on its conviction list, and the forward P/E of ~12x prices in meaningful pessimism relative to current oil strip.
Strongest bear case
The EIA's July 2026 STEO is explicitly bearish on oil: Brent is forecast to average $74/b in Q3 and fall to $65/b in 2027 as pre-conflict supply levels recover by end of 2026 — multiple sell-side analysts (UBS cut target from $155 to $143, Truist cut from $128 to $115) are lowering price targets in acknowledgment of this structural supply rebuild, and COP's own revenue and earnings growth are already negative (-5.3% and -20.2%), meaning any oil price softening hits an already-declining earnings trajectory hard.
What the market may be missing
The ceasefire MOU was signed June 18 but was declared 'over' by Trump on July 7-8 — yet the EIA's July 7 STEO (completed July 1, before the ceasefire breakdown) already assumed normalization. If the renewed US-Iran hostilities delay Strait of Hormuz traffic recovery materially beyond the EIA's base case, the supply rebuild timeline could slip by 1-2 quarters, providing a non-consensus near-term upside to WTI and COP's realizations that the current $109 price doesn't fully reflect.
Model breakdown
Signal
Atlas (Claude) — NEUTRAL
Meridian (GPT-4) — NEUTRAL
Grayline (Grok) — NEUTRAL
Vantage (Gemini) — NEUTRAL
msj100_COP_20260712T003715Z
Peer comparison
Signal
COP
current
$111.87 ▼0.9%
BKR
NEUTRAL
$57.56
HAL
NEUTRAL
$34.39
OXY
NEUTRAL
$52.89
MPC
NEUTRAL
$283.74
Recent SEC filings
Signal
P2 AUTO
8-K — 2026-06-23
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-06-16
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-06-10
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-06-03
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
8-K — 2026-05-14
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
CEO scorecard — Ryan M. Lance
Signal summary
Full detail Pro
RM
Ryan M. Lance
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer · ConocoPhillips
CEO since 2012
Total compensation
$23,450,085 ▲ 1.4% YoY
Prior year: $23,116,284
Pay vs performance
Aligned
Board assessment
Say-on-pay approval
96%
Shareholder vote
Board independence
11/13 (85%)
Diversity: 31% (4 women)
Base salary$1,800,000
Bonus / incentive
Stock awards$16,543,434
Executive appearances
Intel
Free
TestimonyApr 15, 2026
California State Senate Hearing on SB 982 (Affordable Insurance and Recovery Act) Source ↗
Mr. Ryan M. Lance (CEO) · California State Senate
The article references Ryan Lance's executive compensation amid discussions of a bill empowering the California Attorney General to sue oil companies like ConocoPhillips for climate-related insurance costs. It highlights the financial burden on Calif
CEO letter to shareholders
Signal
Full letter Pro
Ryan M. Lance 2024 Annual Report CONFIDENT

Dear fellow shareholders,

2024 was another strong year for ConocoPhillips.

We continued to deliver on our returns-focused

value proposition, distributed $9.1 billion to

shareholders and enhanced our portfolio with

the acquisition of Marathon Oil. We achieved

significant operational milestones across our

business with a focus on safety and efficiency.

And we further progressed our global

liquefied natural gas (LNG) strategy.

Looking ahead to 2025, we remain

committed to returning over 30% of cash

from operations (CFO) to our shareholders,

with a planned target of $10 billion in

distributions.

These accomplishments align with

our Triple Mandate of responsibly and

reliably meeting global energy demand

and delivering competitive returns on

and of capital, while working to meet our

previously established emissions-reduction

targets. They also reflect the commitment

and ingenuity of our workforce.

Industry-leading value

proposition

At ConocoPhillips, our focus is on

delivering superior returns through the

cycles based on our foundational principles

of balance sheet strength, peer-leading

distributions and disciplined investments,

with an emphasis on environmental,

social and governance performance. We

are committed to our value proposition

and financial plan that produce reliable

free cash flow, allowing us to reward

shareholders now and in the future.

With assets in some of the most prolific

basins in the U.S. Lower 48 and Alaska, as

well as in Africa, Asia, Australia, Canada

and Europe, ConocoPhillips produced

1,987 thousand barrels of oil equivalent

per day (MBOED) globally in 2024, which

was a record for the company. Our reserve

replacement ratio was 244% and our

organic reserve replacement ratio was

123%. In the Lower 48, we continued to

deliver drilling and completion efficiency

improvements, resulting in mid-single-

digit production growth while maintaining

similar activity levels as in 2023. In Alaska,

our teams reached first oil at Nuna, and we

opportunistically exercised our preferential

rights to acquire additional working interests

in the Kuparuk River and Prudhoe Bay Units.

Internationally, we reached first production

at Eldfisk North in Norway and Bohai Phase

5 in China. We also celebrated the 1,000th

cargo lifts at Bohai Bay and APLNG. And the

company progressed long-cycle projects,

including Willow in Alaska, North Field East

and North Field South in Qatar, and Port

Arthur LNG along the U.S. Gulf Coast.

ConocoPhillips always looks for

opportunities to enhance our portfolio

— but only when they meet our rigorous

financial framework and strengthen our

business. In November 2024, we acquired

Marathon Oil in a $22.5 billion all-stock

transaction, adding high-quality, low

cost of supply inventory adjacent to our

leading U.S. unconventional position

in the Eagle Ford, Bakken and Permian

Basin. We have a strong history of

seamlessly integrating assets, and we

expect the Marathon Oil transaction to

deliver synergies of over $1 billion on a

run rate basis by the end of 2025, half of

which were incorporated into our 2025

capital guidance.

We also advanced our global LNG

strategy in 2024 through new long-term

agreements in Europe and Asia. With the

addition of Marathon Oil, we’ve added

approximately 2 million tonnes per annum

of net LNG capacity in Equatorial Guinea

to our global portfolio.

We have equity,

offtake and regasification agreements

across major global markets.

Our competitive advantage

ConocoPhillips executed across all

aspects of our Triple Mandate in 2024.

We achieved a 14% return on capital

employed and returned $9.1 billion of

capital to shareholders, well in excess

of our greater than 30% of CFO annual

through-the-cycle commitment. In December

2024, we increased our ordinary dividend by

34%, effectively incorporating our variable

return of cash into the ordinary dividend.

Since 2017, following our strategy reset,

our total shareholder distributions have

averaged more than 45% of CFO. We believe

that our CFO-based returns framework

differentiates us relative to peers and is a

competitive advantage.

As part of our commitment to reduce Scope 1

and Scope 2 greenhouse gas emissions, our

Low Carbon Technologies team worked with

our business units to develop and implement

region-specific emissions-reduction initiatives

and identify potential technology solutions for

hard-to-abate emissions. We are in our third

year of membership in the Oil & Gas Methane

Partnership 2.0 and recently achieved the

Gold Standard reporting designation. This

recognition is for our ambitious measurement-

based methane emissions reporting that goes

beyond current regulatory requirements.

World-class workforce

At ConocoPhillips, we work together to help

supply the energy that communities around

the world depend on. Our people make that

mission possible. Every day, we strive to

create a culture that prioritizes safety, well-

being and career growth, with a focus on

innovation and collaboration.

Positioned for the future

The world needs access to responsibly

produced, reliable energy — and

ConocoPhillips is uniquely equipped to

deliver it with a deep, durable and diverse

portfolio that provides competitive returns

and cash flow. Combined with our high-

performing operations, continuously

advancing technology and world-class

workforce, ConocoPhillips is well positioned

to achieve strong, consistent financial

results, now and for decades to come.

Ryan M. Lance

Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Feb. 18, 2025

Xavier analysis
The CEO consistently uses strong, positive language to describe achievements, future prospects, and competitive advantages, focusing on celebration of past success and optimistic outlook for future growth and shareholder returns.
Strategic themes by emphasis
#1Shareholder Returns & Financial Framework
#2Portfolio Enhancement & Production Growth
#3Global LNG Strategy
#4Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Performance
#5Workforce & Operational Excellence
17 named projects & initiatives
Marathon Oil, Nuna, Kuparuk River Unit, Prudhoe Bay Unit, Eldfisk North, Bohai Phase 5 +11 more
9 facility, 6 other, 1 acquisition, 1 program
Forward-looking statements
3 total: 2 quantified, 1 directional, 0 vague
Capital allocation priority
Shareholder Distributions (dividends, buybacks) → Disciplined Organic Investments → Strategic Acquisitions (M&A) → Balance Sheet Strength
Key quotes
“Looking ahead to 2025, we remain committed to returning over 30% of cash from operations (CFO) to our shareholders, with a planned target of $10 billion in distributions.”
This explicitly states the company's forward-looking commitment and quantified targets for shareholder returns, a core part of its value proposition.
“ConocoPhillips is well positioned to achieve strong, consistent financial results, now and for decades to come.”
This sentence encapsulates the CEO's overall confidence and long-term optimistic outlook for the company's future performance.
View 2024 Annual Report (PDF) →3 letters on file (2024, 2023, 2022) · Full history with Pro
Executive compensation
Signal
NameTitleTotal compensation
Ryan M. LanceChairman and Chief Executive Officer$23,450,085
Andrew M. O’BrienChief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Strategy and Commercial$6,348,878
William L. Bullock, Jr.Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer$7,842,009
Nicholas G. OldsExecutive Vice President, Lower 48 and Global HSE$8,019,355
Kelly B. RoseSenior Vice President, Legal, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary$6,492,838
Kirk L. JohnsonExecutive Vice President, Global Operations and Technical Functions$6,268,068
Source: DEF 14A proxy statement · 2026-03-30
Governance
Pro
Dual-class shares: No
Poison pill: No
Clawback policy: Yes
Stock ownership req.: Yes
Shareholder proposals
Request Board of Directors to Adopt Policy for an Independent Chair
AGAINST
Pending
Debt intelligence
Pro
6 CUSIPs
0.34x
Debt / Equity
13.6x
Interest coverage
0.7x
Net Debt / EBITDA
$16.4B
Net debt
18%
Debt / Assets
Interest coverage trend (EBITDA / Interest expense)
30.3x
24-06
29.8x
24-09
35.2x
25-03
25.2x
25-06
26.2x
25-09
31.7x
26-03
CUSIP identifiers (6 on file)
20825CAV6 U20845AD2 20825CAX2 U20845AE0 20825CBD5 U20845AH3
Xavier risk radar
Pro
Covenant headroom
Low leverage — no covenants required
Earnings quality
MEDIUM (cash conversion 2.5x)
Risk trend
Risk increasing — Volatile commodity prices and prolonged periods of low commodity prices, which a
Mgmt narrative
Management tone: Cautiously optimistic
Analyst drift
Consensus Buy — targets stable
Insider sentiment
Pattern detection — 90 days needed
Signal history
Signal
DateDirectionConf.Agree.ThesisPriceType
Jul 12, 2026 NEUTRAL 5.5/10 100% COP trades at ~20% below its 52-week high with a reasonable forward P/E of ~12x, but the oil commodi... $109.04 Sched.
Jul 11, 2026 NEUTRAL 5.7/10 100% COP screens reasonably valued on forward earnings and still trades well below analyst target, but th... $109.04 Sched.
Jun 07, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.0/10 100% COP trades at ~12.7x forward P/E with a $22+ discount to consensus analyst targets (~$143), offering... $117.14 Sched.
May 31, 2026 BEARISH 6.2/10 50% COP faces a powerful and accelerating headwind: WTI crude fell ~17% in May alone as US-Iran ceasefir... $113.98 Sched.
May 24, 2026 NEUTRAL 5.7/10 75% COP is a direct beneficiary of the most significant oil supply shock since the 1970s — the de facto ... $120.46 Sched.
May 17, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.3/10 75% COP is a direct beneficiary of the Strait of Hormuz crisis: WTI trades near ~$106/b with the EIA for... $122.41 Sched.
May 10, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.5/10 50% COP is caught in a deteriorating oil price environment as US-Iran diplomatic progress erodes the geo... $113.87 Sched.
May 03, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.7/10 50% COP is caught between two powerful opposing forces: elevated crude oil near ~$102/bbl driven by the ... $123.19 Sched.
May 01, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.7/10 75% COP just beat Q1 2026 adjusted EPS estimates at $1.89, generated $2.4B in free cash flow, and is ret... $123.64 Sched.
Apr 12, 2026 BULLISH 7.2/10 75% COP is trading roughly 10% below its 52-week high at $122.55, having pulled back from a YTD surge fu... $122.55 Sched.
Showing last 10 signals
COP ConocoPhillips
Signal
FY2026 annual report (10-K filed 2026-02-17)
INCOME STATEMENT
? Revenue
$58,944 million 7.67% YoY
? Operating income
$10,938 million
? Net income
$7,988 million
? Free cash flow
$7,243 million
? EPS (diluted)
$1.78
? Dividend per share
$3.18
Click any row to expand the plain-English explanation. Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings.
Capital intelligence
Signal
Weighted Average Cost of Capital · Return on Invested Capital · Economic Value Added
ROIC
9.13%
WACC
4.28%
🟢 VALUE CREATOR — EVA Spread: 4.85%
? WACC
4.28%
? Cost of equity
4.92%
? Cost of debt (after-tax)
0.55%
? Capital structure
E: 85.32% / D: 14.68%
? ROIC
9.13%
? EVA
$4.0B
? NOPAT
$7.5B
Risk-free rate: 4.25% (10Y Treasury) · Equity risk premium: 5.50% · Sources: total_debt: Gemini 10-K, operating_income: XBRL TTM (4Q sum), interest_expense: XBRL, invested_capital: Equity + Debt - Cash
Xavier consensus signals are intelligence outputs, not investment advice. All signals are generated by a multi-model AI system and reflect public information at time of generation. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future performance. Wall Street analyst consensus sourced from public disclosures, summarized weekly. Financial data sourced from SEC EDGAR and yfinance. Insider transactions sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 4 filings. Updated Jul 12, 2026.