CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is a global manufacturer and distributor of nitrogen fertilizer products, including ammonia, granular urea, UAN, and AN. The company operates manufacturing complexes in North America and the UK, and is focused on decarbonizing its ammonia production to provide low-carbon hydrogen and nitrogen products for sustainable energy and agriculture.
Business segments
10-K
AmmoniaGranular UreaUANANOther
Recent News
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Earnings call: Q1 2026 2026
Intel
Free
May 02, 2026Confident
● Full transcript on file
Tony Will (President and Chief Executive Officer), Chris Bohn (Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer), Bert Frost (Senior Vice President, Sales, Marketing and Supply Chain), Ashraf Malek (Treasurer and Investor Relations Contact)
Key metrics
Q1 2026 net sales were approximately $1.99 billion with adjusted EBITDA in the mid-$800 million range, driven by higher nitrogen volumes and stable pricing. Management reported year-over-year EPS growth reflecting lower natural gas input costs and continued strong export volumes to Latin America and Europe, while maintaining a solid cash position a
Forward guidance
Management guided that nitrogen demand is expected to remain robust through the 2026 planting season, supported by strong farm economics and low global grain inventories. They indicated that CF expects to operate its ammonia and urea production assets at high utilization rates and sees 2026 EBITDA tracking in line to modestly above 2025 levels, ass
Notable Q&A
In one exchange, an analyst asked about the sustainability of current nitrogen pricing and potential impact from new global capacity; management responded that while some new plants are coming online, CF believes disciplined capital allocation and advantaged North American gas pricing will allow the
Surprise items
Management highlighted better-than-expected export demand from Europe due to lingering energy cost pressures on local producers, which supported margins more than investors had anticipated. They also signaled additional capacity optimization initiatives at existing plants rather than announcing majo
Q4 2025 (Feb 14, 2026) · Optimistic
Fundamentals
Signal
52-week high / low
$141.96 / $75.42
Forward P/E
10.6×
Trailing 10.9×
Dividend
$2.40 / share
Yield 1.98%
Analysts covering
19
Avg target $125.72
Beta
0.39
vs. S&P 500
Short interest
8.0%
Float shorted
Buy
29%
Hold
57%
Sell
14%
Wall Street consensus — sourced weekly via public disclosures
Analyst coverage data sourced from public filings. Xavier analyst thesis summary available after weekly Perplexity scan completes.
Financial summary — Gemini analysis
Signal
Revenue
$7.08 billion
19% increase vs prior year YoY
Operating margin
32.5%
Net income
$1.46 billion
Free cash flow
$1.80 billion
Dividend / share
$2.00
Total debt
$3.25 billion
Cash: $1.98 billion
CapEx guidance
$1.3 billion
Earnings quality:HIGH
Cash conversion:1.5x
Non-recurring items: Asset impairment of $76 million related to property, plant and equipment at Donaldsonville and Yazoo City facilities, Loss on sale of Ince facility of $23 million, Loss on debt extinguishment of $6 million, Blue Point joint venture construction costs of $10 million that were not eligible for capitalization
Confidence 6.1 / 10 · 100% model agreement ·
Scheduled Jun 07, 2026
CF screens inexpensive at about 10x earnings and below analyst target, but that alone is not enough for a 5-day bullish call in a cyclical fertilizer name with limited near-term growth and a fresh -3.4% down move. The stock is neither stretched nor deeply washed out, and in a neutral-to-soft macro backdrop, short-term direction is likely dominated by nitrogen price volatility, ag sentiment, and commodity-linked risk rather than valuation mean reversion.
Strongest bull case
Low earnings multiple with solid profitability gives the stock downside support if the market stabilizes and investors rotate back into cash-generative value/cyclicals.
Strongest bear case
CF is highly exposed to near-term moves in nitrogen fertilizer pricing and margin expectations, so any weak commodity/agriculture commentary or sector de-risking over the next week can keep pressure on the shares despite the low P/E.
Mr. Christopher D. Bohn (CEO) · CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
Christopher D. Bohn discussed Q1 2026 results highlighting strong operational performance, global nitrogen demand strength, and tight global nitrogen supply conditions. Topics included high free cash flow generation, Blue Point expansion timelines, a
“"The CF Industries team continued to deliver safely outstanding operational performance in the first quarter of 2026 against a backdrop of strong global nitrogen demand and tight global nitrogen suppl”
CEO letter to shareholders
Signal
Full letter Pro
Christopher Bohn2025 Annual ReportOPTIMISTIC
Fellow CF Industries Shareholders:
I am honored to write to you for the first time as president and chief executive officer of CF Industries.
As you can see above and on the preceding page, 2025 was a fantastic year for CF Industries as we successfully navigated a tumultuous year in our industry. Our performance demonstrates the strength of our core fertilizer, emissions abatement and industrial businesses, the deep expertise and commitment of our people, and the momentum behind our long-term clean energy strategic vision.
I want to recognize my predecessor, Tony Will, for the significant role he played in our success - not only over the past year, but also in leading the transformation of the Company during his tenure as CEO. He and I share a deep belief in the strength and potential of this Company, and I am excited to continue our mission to provide clean energy to feed and fuel the world sustainably.
CREATING VALUE FOR LONG-TERM SHAREHOLDERS
Our goal for long-term shareholders is simple and unchanged: create value by increasing your participation in CF Industries' assets and the cash flow they generate.
We do this by investing where we win:
Grow our production base organically or inorganically. For example, we purchased the Waggaman Complex in Louisiana in 2023 and are building a greenfield low-carbon ammonia plant in Louisiana with our Blue Point joint venture.
Invest in our business to grow margin. This past year we completed a carbon capture and sequestration project at our Donaldsonville Complex in Louisiana that is producing low-carbon nitrogen products we are selling at a premium price in addition to generating substantial 45Q tax credits. At the same facility, we expanded diesel exhaust fluid (DEF) load-out capacity, allowing us to ship an additional 140,000 tons of high-margin DEF per year.
Reduce our outstanding share count. We returned $1.34 billion to shareholders by repurchasing 16.6 million shares in 2025, reducing the Company's outstanding share count by 10%. Over the last five years, we have reduced the outstanding share count by 60.4 million shares.
BUILDING ON OUR MOMENTUM
Every day, I am inspired by our Do It Right culture of safety excellence, our outstanding team and the value we bring to the world. We make products that are essential to food security, emissions control, and industrial processes. And 80 years after our founding, we are finding new ways to make a difference as our decarbonization initiatives unlock new demand for our products.
We do all this at the forefront of our industry – the world's largest ammonia producer, the industry's best operator, a global partner of choice, and a leader in total shareholder return. We believe we are well positioned to build on our leadership position and continue to create value for long-term shareholders through:
Optimizing our high margin, high performance business with enduring competitive advantages and consistently generating strong free cash flow;
Monetizing decarbonization through our clean energy strategic growth platform and investing in our core business to position us for significant free cash flow growth;
And a commitment to, and long track record of, returning capital to long-term shareholders.
Thank you for your confidence in CF Industries. We are excited about the future and look forward to continuing to earn your support in the years ahead.
Christopher Bohn President and Chief Executive Officer
Xavier analysis
The CEO consistently uses positive language, highlights achievements, expresses excitement for the future, and frames challenges as successfully navigated, conveying strong confidence in the company's direction and performance.
Strategic themes by emphasis
#1Clean Energy & Decarbonization
#2Shareholder Value Creation & Capital Return
#3Operational Excellence & Core Business Strength
#4Growth (Organic & Inorganic)
#5Competitive Leadership
10 named projects & initiatives
Donaldsonville CCS project, Verdigris N₂O abatement, Donaldsonville Complex, Waggaman Complex, Blue Point joint venture, POET +4 more
6 partnership, 3 facility, 1 acquisition
Forward-looking statements
11 total: 2 quantified, 2 directional, 7 vague
Capital allocation priority
Organic Growth → Inorganic Growth (M&A) → Investment in Business to Grow Margin → Share Repurchases
Key quotes
“Our mission is to provide clean energy to feed and fuel the world sustainably.”
States the core purpose and strategic direction of the company, emphasizing sustainability and the energy transition.
“Our performance demonstrates the strength of our core fertilizer, emissions abatement and industrial businesses, the deep expertise and commitment of our people, and the momentum behind our long-term ”
Summarizes the key drivers of 2025 success and the foundational elements supporting the company's future strategic path.
FOURTH AMENDED AND RESTATED REVOLVING CREDIT AGREEMENT
Matures 2024-12-05 · Filed 2023-05-16
Floating · SOFR (Term SOFR)
Secured. Collateral includes: (i) 'Collateral' as defined in the Security Agreement, (ii) all 'Collateral' or 'Mortgaged Property' as defined in any other Collateral Document and (iii) any other assets pledged or in which a Lien is granted, in each case, pursuant to any Collateral Document; provided that at no time shall this definition or any of the foregoing include any Excluded Property. Collateral Documents include the Security Agreement, Security Agreement Supplements, Intellectual Property Security Agreements, and Mortgages.
Bond
5.375% Senior Notes due 2044
Matures 2044 · Filed 2022-02-01
Fixed
unsecured
Credit$750,000,000
FOURTH AMENDED AND RESTATED REVOLVING CREDIT AGREEMENT
Matures 2024-12-05 · Filed 2022-02-01
Floating · LIBOR | Fed Funds | Prime | CDOR
Unsecured. As of August 24, 2021 (prior to this amendment's effective date), the Collateral and Guarantee Release Conditions were satisfied, and provisions related to Collateral Documents and most Guaranties are no longer applicable, except for Holdings and the Lead Borrower in their capacities as Guarantors.
19 additional agreements on file
Financial covenants
Maximum Total Net Leverage Ratio
Not specified in the provided text (referenced in Section 6.4(a))
Total Net Leverage Ratio (Consolidated Indebtedness - Unrestricted Cash) / Consolidated EBITDA
FIRST AMENDED AND RESTATED REVOLVING CREDIT AGREEM
Maximum Total Net Leverage Ratio
Not specified in provided text, subject to Financial Covenant Step-Up Election
Total Net Leverage Ratio
Revolving Credit Agreement, dated as of October 26
Maximum Total Net Leverage Ratio
set forth in Section 6.4(b) (not provided in this excerpt)
Total Net Leverage Ratio (Consolidated Indebtedness minus Unrestricted Cash, divided by Consolidated EBITDA)
Senior Unsecured Revolving Credit Facility
Interest Coverage Ratio
Not specified in the provided text (located in Section 6.4)
FOURTH AMENDED AND RESTATED REVOLVING CREDIT AGREE
Interest Coverage Ratio
Consolidated EBITDA for the period of four (4) consecutive fiscal quarters most recently ended to Consolidated Interest Expense for such period of four (4) consecutive fiscal quarters
FOURTH AMENDED AND RESTATED REVOLVING CREDIT AGREE
Total Net Leverage Ratio
the ratio of (x) the remainder of (i) Consolidated Indebtedness on such date minus (ii) the aggregate amount of Unrestricted Cash on such date, to (y) Consolidated EBITDA for the period of four (4) consecutive fiscal quarters most recently ended on or prior to such date for which financial statements have been (or were required to be) furnished to the Administrative Agent pursuant to Section 5.1(a) or (b)
FOURTH AMENDED AND RESTATED REVOLVING CREDIT AGREE
Limitation on Investments
shall not exceed the Available Investment Amount
Aggregate amount of Investments made by Loan Parties and Specified Non-Guarantors pursuant to Section 6.8(a) in joint ventures, Non-Guarantor Subsidiaries and Excluded Subsidiaries that are not Guarantors, together with (x) the aggregate amount of Investments in reliance on Section 6.8(f) made by Loan Parties and Specified Non-Guarantors in Persons that are not Loan Parties and (y) the aggregate amount of Investments in reliance on Section 6.8(n) in Persons that do not become Guarantors pursuant thereto
Amendment No. 5 to the Third Amended and Restated
15 additional covenants on file
Cross-default risk
17 agreements contain cross-default provisions — a covenant breach on one facility may trigger default on others.
Xavier risk radar
Pro
Covenant headroom
Low leverage — no covenants required
Earnings quality
High quality (cash conversion 1.5x)
Risk trend
Risk increasing — The industry is cyclical, and operating results are highly dependent upon and fl
Mgmt narrative
Management tone: Cautiously optimistic
Analyst drift
Consensus Hold — watch for drift
Insider sentiment
Pattern detection — 90 days needed
Signal history
Signal
Date
Direction
Conf.
Agree.
Thesis
Price
Type
Jun 07, 2026
NEUTRAL
6.1/10
100%
CF screens inexpensive at about 10x earnings and below analyst target, but that alone is not enough ...
$113.49
Sched.
May 31, 2026
NEUTRAL
5.7/10
100%
CF Industries is a genuine macro beneficiary of the Middle East supply shock — with urea prices proj...
$112.35
Sched.
May 24, 2026
NEUTRAL
6.0/10
75%
CF Industries is a direct beneficiary of a structural supply shock: Middle East LNG disruptions have...
$121.70
Sched.
May 17, 2026
NEUTRAL
6.2/10
50%
CF Industries trades at a deeply discounted 11.3x TTM P/E with a forward P/E of 12.2x — well below t...
$125.24
Sched.
May 10, 2026
NEUTRAL
6.3/10
50%
CF Industries delivered a strong Q1 2026 beat (EPS $3.99 vs $1.85 a year ago, adjusted EBITDA $983M)...
$115.02
Sched.
May 03, 2026
NEUTRAL
6.0/10
100%
CF trades at ~13.7x TTM P/E which is cheap on its face, but the current price of $122.69 sits above ...
$122.69
Sched.
May 01, 2026
NEUTRAL
6.4/10
75%
CF is attractively valued at ~13.7x TTM P/E with robust cash generation and a constructive nitrogen ...
$122.92
Sched.
Apr 12, 2026
BULLISH
6.9/10
75%
CF Industries is trading at $121, modestly above the consensus analyst target of $116, but that targ...
$121.32
Sched.
Showing last 8 signals
CFCF Industries Holdings Inc.
Signal
FY2026 annual report (10-K filed 2026-02-25)
INCOME STATEMENT
?Revenue
$7.08 billion19% increase vs prior year YoY
Total sales from chemicals, mining, construction materials, and specialty materials. Down 19% increase vs prior year from last year. Management has guided capital spending of $1.3 billion.
?Operating income
$2.30 billion
What remains after subtracting all operating costs — salaries, materials, rent, R&D — from revenue. This is the profit from actually running the business, before interest and taxes. Operating margin is 32.5%, meaning 32 cents of every dollar of revenue becomes operating profit.
?Net income
$1.46 billion
The bottom line — what the company actually earned after all expenses, interest, and taxes. This is the number that gets divided by shares outstanding to calculate earnings per share (EPS), which directly affects the stock price. Net margin is 31.0%. Note: results include non-recurring items (asset impairment of $76 million related to property, plant and equipment at donaldsonville and yazoo city facilities, loss on sale of ince facility of $23 million) that may not repeat.
?Free cash flow
$1.80 billion
Operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. This is the money available for dividends, share buybacks, debt repayment, or acquisitions. Free cash flow is what many professional investors consider the truest measure of financial health.
?EPS (diluted)
$3.98
Earnings per share — net income divided by total shares outstanding (including stock options and convertible bonds that could become shares). This is the single number most investors watch because it directly connects company profits to your ownership stake.
?Dividend per share
$2.00
Cash paid to shareholders each year for every share they own. Materials dividends are tied to commodity cycles and construction activity.
BALANCE SHEET
?Total assets
$14.6B
Everything the company owns — cash, factories, equipment, patents, inventory, investments. Includes mines, quarries, chemical plants, and mineral reserves.
?Cash & equivalents
$1.98 billion
Money available right now — bank accounts, money market funds, short-term government bonds. This is the company's financial cushion. More cash means more flexibility to invest, acquire, or survive a downturn without borrowing.
?Total debt
$3.25 billion
All money the company owes — bonds, bank loans, credit facilities. Compare this to cash to understand the net debt position. The company holds $1.98 billion in cash against this debt.
?Shares outstanding
153,668,821
Total number of shares that exist — owned by all investors, insiders, and institutions combined. When the company reports EPS, this is the denominator. Share buybacks reduce this number, which increases EPS even without earnings growth.
?Debt-to-equity ratio
0.6%
How much debt the company uses for every dollar of shareholder equity. Under 100% means more equity than debt (conservative). Over 200% means heavy leverage. Banks and utilities naturally run higher ratios.
CASH FLOW
?Operating cash flow
$496M
Actual cash generated from running the business — not accounting profits, real money coming in the door. This is more trustworthy than net income because it's harder to manipulate. A company can report profits but still run out of cash.
?Capital expenditure
$223M
Money spent on long-term assets — mining equipment, quarries, chemical plants, and processing facilities. This is the cost of maintaining and growing the business. Management has guided $1.3 billion for capital spending.
?Free cash flow
$273M
Operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. This is the money available for dividends, share buybacks, debt repayment, or acquisitions. Free cash flow is what many professional investors consider the truest measure of a company's financial health.
?Interest expense
$39M
The cost of borrowing money — interest payments on bonds, loans, and credit facilities. Higher interest expense means more of the company's earnings go to lenders instead of shareholders.
?Interest coverage
28.0x
EBITDA divided by interest expense — how many times over the company can pay its interest bill from earnings. At 28.0x, coverage is very comfortable. Lenders typically want to see at least 3-4x.
?Depreciation & amortization
$228M
A non-cash expense that spreads the cost of mining assets, chemical processing equipment, and quarry reserves over their useful life. This reduces reported income but no cash actually leaves the company — that's why it gets added back to calculate EBITDA and operating cash flow.
EARNINGS QUALITY
?Accrual quality
HIGH
Measures how well reported earnings match actual cash generation. HIGH means earnings are backed by real cash. LOW means the company may be using accounting techniques to inflate reported numbers. Professional investors check this before trusting EPS.
?Cash conversion
1.5x
Operating cash flow divided by net income. Above 1.0x means the company generates more cash than it reports in profits — a sign of high-quality earnings. At 1.5x, the company is generating significantly more cash than reported profits — very healthy.
?Non-recurring items
5 identified
One-time items that affect the bottom line but won't repeat: asset impairment of $76 million related to property, plant and equipment at donaldsonville and yazoo city facilities, loss on sale of ince facility of $23 million, loss on debt extinguishment of $6 million, blue point joint venture construction costs of $10 million that were not eligible for capitalization. When evaluating the company's true earning power, investors strip these out to see what the business earns on a normal basis.
?Management tone
Cautious Optimistic
How management sounds in their SEC filings — are they confident, cautious, or defensive? This is analyzed from the actual language used in the 10-K annual report. A shift in tone from prior years can signal changing conditions before the numbers reflect it.
?Top risk factor
Increasing
The industry is cyclical, and operating results are highly dependent upon and fluctuate based upon changes in supply and demand of nitrogen products, which can lead to negative impacts during periods of industry oversupply. Risk trend: increasing. This is the single biggest threat to the company's future earnings as identified in their SEC filing.
Click any row to expand the plain-English explanation. Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings.
Capital intelligence
Signal
Weighted Average Cost of Capital · Return on Invested Capital · Economic Value Added
ROIC
24.32%
WACC
5.57%
🟢 VALUE CREATOR — EVA Spread: 18.75%
?WACC
5.57%
Weighted Average Cost of Capital — the minimum return CF Industries Holdings Inc. must earn on its investments to satisfy both debt holders and shareholders. Computed from a 85.06% equity / 14.94% debt capital structure. If the company earns less than 5.57% on its invested capital, it is destroying shareholder value.
?Cost of equity
6.40%
The return shareholders demand for holding CF stock instead of a risk-free Treasury bond. Computed using the Capital Asset Pricing Model: Risk-Free Rate (4.25%) + Beta (0.39) × Equity Risk Premium (5.50%). A beta of 0.39 means CF is less volatile than the overall market.
?Cost of debt (after-tax)
0.88%
What CF Industries Holdings Inc. effectively pays on its borrowed money after the tax deduction on interest. Interest is tax-deductible, so the true cost is lower than the stated rate. Effective tax rate used: 27.13%.
?Capital structure
E: 85.06% / D: 14.94%
How CF Industries Holdings Inc. finances its operations — the split between equity (stock market value: $18.3B) and debt (total borrowings: $3.2B). More debt means more leverage — higher potential returns but higher risk.
?ROIC
24.32%
Return on Invested Capital — how efficiently CF Industries Holdings Inc. turns its total invested capital into after-tax operating profit. NOPAT ($2.0B) ÷ Invested Capital ($8.1B). This exceeds WACC, meaning the company creates value for shareholders.
?EVA
$1.5B
Economic Value Added — the dollar amount of value CF Industries Holdings Inc. created (or destroyed) above its cost of capital. NOPAT ($2.0B) minus the capital charge (Invested Capital × WACC = $452M). Positive EVA means every dollar of capital is earning more than it costs.
?NOPAT
$2.0B
Net Operating Profit After Tax — operating income adjusted for taxes, ignoring how the company is financed. Operating Income ($2.7B) × (1 - Tax Rate 27.13%). This isolates the company's core business profitability from its financing decisions.
Xavier consensus signals are intelligence outputs, not investment advice. All signals are generated by a multi-model AI system and reflect public information at time of generation. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future performance. Wall Street analyst consensus sourced from public disclosures, summarized weekly. Financial data sourced from SEC EDGAR and yfinance. Insider transactions sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 4 filings. Updated Jun 07, 2026.