MSJ-100 Index
1,036.65
Signal breadth
4 Bullish 93 Neutral 3 Bearish Avg confidence 6.16 / 10
View full MSJ-100 ↗
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
Industrials · NYSE: CAT · MSJ-100
$933.34
▲ $1.87  (▲0.20%) today
After-hours: $934.82  ▲ 0.16%
Headquarters
Irving, TX
Employees
118,000
Founded
1925
CEO
Mr. Joseph E. Creed CPA
Incorporated
Delaware
Fiscal Year End
December
Analyst price target range Free
Avg target $970.37
$933 now
Bear $575 Avg $970 Bull $1,218
Price history Free
Volume
2.03M
Avg volume
3.04M
Open
$958.00
Day high / low
$964.63 / $925.50
Market cap
$429.9B
About this company
Free
Caterpillar Inc. is a global leader in manufacturing construction and mining equipment, off-highway engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives. The company operates through its primary segments: Power & Energy, Construction Industries, and Resource Industries, supported by a vast dealer network and financing services.
It focuses on providing advanced technology solutions to customers in various heavy industries.
Business segments
10-K
Construction Industries Resource Industries Power & Energy Financial Products
Recent News
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Investor day:
Intel
Free
Jun 12, 2026Neutral
Key metrics
Forward guidance
Notable Q&A
Surprise items
Q1 2026 (Apr 30, 2026) · Confident
Fundamentals
Signal
52-week high / low
$1,073.46 / $403.02
Forward P/E
30.7×
Trailing 46.4×
Dividend
$6.52 / share
Yield 0.70%
Analysts covering
26
Avg target $970.37
Beta
1.56
vs. S&P 500
Short interest
2.2%
Float shorted
Buy
54%
Hold
39%
Sell
7%
Wall Street consensus — sourced weekly via public disclosures
Analyst coverage data sourced from public filings. Xavier analyst thesis summary available after weekly Perplexity scan completes.
Financial summary — Gemini analysis
Signal
Revenue
$67.589 billion
4 % YoY
Operating margin
16.5%
Net income
$8.884 billion
Free cash flow
$9.484 billion
Dividend / share
$5.94
Total debt
$43.330 billion
Cash: $9.980 billion
CapEx guidance
around $3.5 billion
Earnings quality: HIGH
Cash conversion:1.3x
Non-recurring items: Other restructuring costs of $445 million, Pension/OPEB mark-to-market gains of $(294) million
Source: SEC 10-K filing analyzed by Gemini 2.5 Flash · 2026-02-13
Xavier sector view:
Industrials
See journal
View Industrials journal ↗
Xavier's signal
NEUTRAL
Signal
Confidence 6.6 / 10  ·  75% model agreement  ·  Scheduled Jul 12, 2026
CAT trades at ~47x TTM P/E and ~38x forward P/E — a multi-decade valuation high for a cyclical industrial, priced more like a high-growth tech stock than a machinery manufacturer. The stock has surged ~139% in 12 months on AI infrastructure euphoria, but the bear case is accumulating in real-time: Michael Burry publicly shorted at $1,061 citing price-to-sales at 3-decade highs; insiders sold ~$87M in the prior 90 days (the structured data shows zero open-market buys); the Resource Industries segment posted a 39% YoY profit decline with 700bps margin compression in Q1; and an estimated $2.2–$2.4B tariff headwind in 2026 will compound in Q2. With Q2 earnings not until August 4, there is no near-term catalyst to re-rate the stock higher, and the current price of $952 is trading essentially at the consensus analyst price target of $962, leaving near-zero upside priced in even from the bullish camp.
Strongest bull case
Record $63 billion backlog (up 79% YoY) with CEO guidance for Power Generation business to triple by 2030 provides genuine multi-year revenue visibility, and Q1 earnings beat consensus by nearly $1/share — the fundamental demand story is real, not purely narrative.
Strongest bear case
CAT's trailing P/E of ~47x and forward P/E of ~38x are at multi-decade highs versus a peer/industry average forward P/E of ~15.5x; the AI-infrastructure premium is already fully embedded in price at a level that leaves no margin of safety if data center capex slows, tariffs run hotter than guided, or the macro softens — exactly the scenario a weak June payrolls print (57K vs. 115K expected) already hints at.
What the market may be missing
The Russell index rebalancing removed CAT from multiple value and defensive benchmarks, creating structural passive outflows that are not a one-day event — institutional rebalancing flows can persist for weeks and represent forced technical selling unrelated to fundamentals, creating sustained price pressure that the AI bull narrative cannot offset in the near 5-day window.
Model breakdown
Signal
Atlas (Claude) — BEARISH
Meridian (GPT-4) — NEUTRAL
Grayline (Grok) — NEUTRAL
Vantage (Gemini) — NEUTRAL
msj100_CAT_20260712T003715Z
Peer comparison
Signal
CAT
current
$933.34 ▲0.2%
EMR
NEUTRAL
$138.88
UPS
NEUTRAL
$112.47
HON
NEUTRAL
$226.42
GE
NEUTRAL
$359.27
Recent SEC filings
Signal
LOG
4 — 2026-07-01
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-06-29
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-06-29
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-06-29
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
LOG
4 — 2026-06-11
View filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
CEO scorecard — Joseph E. Creed
Signal summary
Full detail Pro
JE
Joseph E. Creed
Chairman and CEO · Caterpillar Inc.
CEO since 2025
Total compensation
$17,008,077 ▲ 52.8% YoY
Prior year: $11,130,565
Pay vs performance
Aligned
Board assessment
Say-on-pay approval
94%
Shareholder vote
Board independence
9/10 (90%)
Base salary$1,500,000
Bonus / incentive$2,476,800
Stock awards$9,538,484
CEO letter to shareholders
Signal
Full letter Pro
Joseph E. Creed 2025 Annual Report OPTIMISTIC

Dear Fellow Shareholders,

The world is investing in physical infrastructure at a pace and scale that will define the next decade and beyond. Data centers are being built to meet surging demand for Al and cloud computing. Power grids are being expanded and reinforced. Critical minerals are being extracted to support growing global energy needs and power the devices we rely on every day. Roads, ports and industrial facilities are being constructed and modernized across every major economy.

These are not short-term trends. Urbanization, digitalization, electrification and the evolving global energy landscape are creating sustained, long-duration demand for the physical systems that underpin modern life. Our customers are essential to meeting that demand, and Caterpillar equips them to do it.

In 2025, we celebrated our centennial. For 100 years, Caterpillar has been essential to every major wave of infrastructure investment-from the roads and dams that modernized economies around the world, to the mines that supply the raw materials behind modern technology, to the power systems that keep critical operations running today. The world's needs have changed enormously over that span. Caterpillar has grown with them every time.

What makes this moment different is the wide range of demand coming together at the same time, combined with how we are evolving to meet it. Caterpillar today has the broadest equipment portfolio in our industries, an unmatched independent dealer network around the world, and a growing set of technology capabilities. As a result, our business is becoming more essential and valuable to the customers we serve and more integrated in their operations.

We are delivering results that reflect that positioning. In 2025, sales and revenues reached $67.6 billion, the highest in Caterpillar's history. We maintained adjusted operating profit margin within our target range, generated $9.5 billion of Machinery, Power & Energy (MP&E) free cash flow and returned $7.9 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. Adjusted profit per share was $19.06.

A refreshed strategy

At our 2025 Investor Day, we introduced a refreshed strategic plan for profitable growth organized around our mission-solving our customers' toughest challenges-and three pillars: Commercial Excellence, Advanced Technology Leader and Transform How We Work. All three are built on a foundation of Operational Excellence and guided by Our Values in Action: Safety, Integrity, Teamwork, Excellence and Commitment.

Together, these pillars are designed to deepen how we serve customers across the full equipment lifecycle; accelerate the deployment of technology and digital solutions that help them work safer, more productively, and with less unplanned downtime; and strengthen the operating capabilities that allow us to grow while protecting margins and cash returns.

To support our strategy, we are making significant investments across our business, with MP&E capital expenditures increasing through the end of the decade-guided by our Operating & Execution Model to ensure every investment earns a return.

We established 2030 financial targets to reflect our confidence in the strategy and our ability to execute it. They are grounded in the demand we see, the investments we are making and the competitive advantages we continue to strengthen.

The next 100 years

As we enter our second century, we do so with conviction in the opportunity ahead and in Caterpillar's ability to capture it. The physical foundation most people never think about-generating power, extracting critical minerals, and constructing and maintaining the infrastructure that keeps economies running-is becoming more important. This is the "invisible layer" that makes progress possible, and it would not exist without Caterpillar. Demand for the invisible layer has never been greater, and our customers who build, power and maintain it have never needed us more. Caterpillar is here to deliver enduring value for customers, communities and shareholders today and for generations to come.

Thank you for your trust and partnership.

Joseph E. Creed
Chairman & CEO

Xavier analysis
The CEO expresses strong confidence in Caterpillar's market position, historical performance, and future growth opportunities, highlighting record sales and sustained demand, and outlining a clear strategy for the next century.
Strategic themes by emphasis
#1Responding to Global Infrastructure Demand
#2Centennial Legacy and Future Vision
#3Refreshed Strategic Pillars for Growth
#4Delivering Strong Financial Results and Shareholder Value
#5Strategic Investments and Operational Discipline
7 named projects & initiatives
Centennial World Tour, Commercial Excellence, Advanced Technology Leader, Transform How We Work, Operational Excellence, Our Values in Action +1 more
4 restructuring, 2 other, 1 r and d
Forward-looking statements
12 total: 0 quantified, 7 directional, 5 vague
Capital allocation priority
Shareholder Returns (Share Repurchases & Dividends) → Organic Growth (MP&E Capital Expenditures)
Key quotes
“"WHAT MAKES THIS MOMENT DIFFERENT IS THE WIDE RANGE OF DEMAND COMING TOGETHER AT THE SAME TIME, COMBINED WITH HOW WE ARE EVOLVING TO MEET IT."”
This quote encapsulates the CEO's central investment thesis: Caterpillar's unique position to capitalize on converging global demand for infrastructure and its evolving capabilities to meet it.
View 2025 Annual Report (PDF) →4 letters on file (2025, 2024, 2023, 2022) · Full history with Pro
Executive compensation
Signal
NameTitleTotal compensation
D. James Umpleby IIIExecutive Chairman$22,191,496
Joseph E. CreedCEO$17,008,077
Andrew R. J. BonfieldCFO$7,447,699
Bob De LangeGroup President$6,020,675
Denise C. JohnsonGroup President$6,152,351
Christy M. PambianchiCHRO$10,674,916
Source: DEF 14A proxy statement · 2026-04-30
Governance
Pro
Dual-class shares: No
Poison pill: No
Clawback policy: Yes
Stock ownership req.: Yes
Shareholder proposals
Shareholder Right to Act by Written Consent
AGAINST
Pending
Debt intelligence
Pro
50 debt instruments · 36 unique covenants
Credit facilities & debt instruments
Revolver US $75,000,000
JAPAN LOCAL CURRENCY ADDENDUM (Five Year Facility)
Matures · Filed 2025-09-03
Floating · TONAR | Japan Base Rate
Revolver $1,000,000,000
CIF LOCAL CURRENCY ADDENDUM (FIVE-YEAR FACILITY)
Matures · Filed 2025-09-03
Floating · EURIBOR
Credit
FOURTH AMENDED AND RESTATED CREDIT AGREEMENT (Five-Year Facility)
Matures 2030-08-28 · Filed 2025-09-03
Floating · SOFR | EURIBOR | SONIA | TONAR | Fed Funds | Prime
unsecured
Revolver US $ 1,000,000,000
CIF LUX LOCAL CURRENCY ADDENDUM (5 Year Facility)
Matures · Filed 2025-09-03
Floating · EURIBOR
unsecured
Credit US $75,000,000
JAPAN LOCAL CURRENCY ADDENDUM (THREE-YEAR FACILITY)
Matures · Filed 2025-09-03
Floating · TONAR | Japan Base Rate
Revolver US $ 1,000,000,000
CIF LUX LOCAL CURRENCY ADDENDUM (THREE-YEAR FACILITY)
Matures · Filed 2025-09-03
Floating · EURIBOR
44 additional agreements on file
Financial covenants
Minimum Consolidated Net Worth (Caterpillar)
≥ $9,000,000,000
Consolidated Net Worth
FOURTH AMENDED AND RESTATED CREDIT AGREEMENT (Five
Maximum Consolidated Leverage Ratio (CFSC - Average)
≤ 10.0 to 1
CFSC Consolidated Debt to CFSC’s Consolidated Net Worth
FOURTH AMENDED AND RESTATED CREDIT AGREEMENT (Five
Maximum Consolidated Leverage Ratio (CFSC - Year-End)
≤ 10.0 to 1
CFSC Consolidated Debt to CFSC’s Consolidated Net Worth
FOURTH AMENDED AND RESTATED CREDIT AGREEMENT (Five
Minimum Interest Coverage Ratio (CFSC)
≥ 1.15 to 1
(Profit excluding income taxes, Interest Expense and Net Gain/(Loss) From Interest Rate Derivatives) / Interest Expense
FOURTH AMENDED AND RESTATED CREDIT AGREEMENT (Five
Limitation on Liens
≤ 10% of Consolidated Net Tangible Assets
Secured Debt to Consolidated Net Tangible Assets
FOURTH AMENDED AND RESTATED CREDIT AGREEMENT (Five
Caterpillar Consolidated Net Worth
not less than $9,000,000,000
Consolidated Net Worth
FOURTH AMENDED AND RESTATED CREDIT AGREEMENT (Thre
CFSC Leverage Ratio (Monthly Average)
not greater than 10.0 to 1
CFSC Consolidated Debt to CFSC's Consolidated Net Worth
FOURTH AMENDED AND RESTATED CREDIT AGREEMENT (Thre
CFSC Leverage Ratio (Year-End)
not greater than 10.0 to 1
CFSC Consolidated Debt to CFSC's Consolidated Net Worth
FOURTH AMENDED AND RESTATED CREDIT AGREEMENT (Thre
28 additional covenants on file
Cross-default risk
18 agreements contain cross-default provisions — a covenant breach on one facility may trigger default on others.
Xavier risk radar
Pro
Covenant headroom
Moderate leverage — no covenants on file
Earnings quality
High quality (cash conversion 1.3x)
Risk trend
Risk increasing — Our business and the industries we serve are highly sensitive to global and regi
Mgmt narrative
Management tone: Cautiously optimistic
Analyst drift
Consensus Buy — targets stable
Insider sentiment
Pattern detection — 90 days needed
Signal history
Signal
DateDirectionConf.Agree.ThesisPriceType
Jul 12, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.6/10 75% CAT trades at ~47x TTM P/E and ~38x forward P/E — a multi-decade valuation high for a cyclical indus... $952.41 Sched.
Jul 11, 2026 NEUTRAL 7.0/10 75% CAT screens expensive for a cyclical industrial at 47x trailing and 31x forward earnings while reven... $952.41 Sched.
Jun 07, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.4/10 75% CAT has surged ~60% YTD on AI/data center power demand and a record $62.7B backlog, but at 45x TTM P... $904.28 Sched.
May 31, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.4/10 100% CAT trades at a 43x TTM P/E and 29x forward P/E — expensive even after accounting for its Power & En... $875.87 Sched.
May 24, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.3/10 100% CAT has undergone a legitimate business model re-rating driven by a record $63B backlog and Power & ... $879.89 Sched.
May 17, 2026 BEARISH 6.9/10 75% CAT delivered a blowout Q1 — 22% revenue growth, 30% EPS beat, record backlog, and raised full-year ... $888.31 Sched.
May 10, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.2/10 100% CAT delivered a blockbuster Q1 2026 beat — 22% revenue growth, a record $63B backlog, and a ~$1/shar... $897.45 Sched.
May 03, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.6/10 100% CAT delivered a monster Q1 2026 beat — 22% revenue growth, a 19% EPS beat, and a record $63B backlog... $889.67 Sched.
May 01, 2026 NEUTRAL 7.0/10 50% CAT delivered a historic Q1 2026 earnings beat — EPS of $5.54 vs. $4.64 est., revenue up 22% YoY to ... $892.29 Sched.
Apr 12, 2026 NEUTRAL 6.4/10 50% CAT is trading at its 52-week high near $791, roughly 6% above the average analyst price target of $... $790.66 Sched.
Showing last 10 signals
CAT Caterpillar Inc.
Signal
FY2026 annual report (10-K filed 2026-02-13)
INCOME STATEMENT
? Revenue
$67.589 billion 4 % YoY
? Operating income
$11.151 billion
? Net income
$8.884 billion
? Free cash flow
$9.484 billion
? EPS (diluted)
$5.47
? Dividend per share
$5.94
Click any row to expand the plain-English explanation. Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings.
Capital intelligence
Signal
Weighted Average Cost of Capital · Return on Invested Capital · Economic Value Added
ROIC
15.98%
WACC
12.08%
🟢 VALUE CREATOR — EVA Spread: 3.90%
? WACC
12.08%
? Cost of equity
12.86%
? Cost of debt (after-tax)
4.37%
? Capital structure
E: 90.84% / D: 9.16%
? ROIC
15.98%
? EVA
$2.3B
? NOPAT
$9.3B
Risk-free rate: 4.25% (10Y Treasury) · Equity risk premium: 5.50% · Sources: total_debt: Gemini 10-K, operating_income: XBRL TTM (4Q sum), invested_capital: Equity + Debt - Cash
Xavier consensus signals are intelligence outputs, not investment advice. All signals are generated by a multi-model AI system and reflect public information at time of generation. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future performance. Wall Street analyst consensus sourced from public disclosures, summarized weekly. Financial data sourced from SEC EDGAR and yfinance. Insider transactions sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 4 filings. Updated Jul 12, 2026.